Ryan Howard: The Unparalleled Slugger
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In this article, which I wrote during the offseason, I contended Ryan Howard had an upside of 60 home runs. He has done nothing this season to make this statement look foolish. At the plate, Howard’s approach is nothing short of amazing. Looking over his stats, Howard profiles as a groundball hitter with power to the opposite field. One would not give someone with these characteristics a legitimate shot at passing the 60-homer mark.
Batted Ball Type
As mentioned, balls put in play by Howard are rarely deep flyball outs. Instead, they are sharply hit groundballs. Fifty-percent of balls off of Howard’s bat are grounders, while only 28% are flyballs. Other notable power hitters are, obviously, more prone to hitting the ball into the air. For example, Johnny Gomes has hit 46% flyballs, Morgan Ensberg 41%, and Alfonso Soriano 39%.
Another plus, the pitcher rarely fools Howard, as he has a miniscule popup rate of 3.1%. Of players with at least 100 plate appearances in 2006, this number ranks Howard as one of the top twenty batters least likely to popup. To legitimize this feat, Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu rank one and two on the list, respectively.
As a ground ball hitter, one would assume Howard would hit into his share of double plays; however, according to BaseballProspectus, he has grounded into only four when an average player in the same situations would have grounded into six. In other words, Howard has saved the team two double plays. Likely, this is due to his high strikeout total.
Plate Patience
As shown by his K rate, Howard tends to be aggressive at the plate. This, however, has not hurt his ability to drive in runs, as he has 53 RBIs. Of players with at least 100 plate appearances, Howard ranks 39th in percentage of runners driven in, not including when he scores himself on a HR. This has actually been accomplished with him hitting only .230 with runners in scoring position.
While Howard still strikes out a ton, he has improved his SO/BB over last year’s mark. In 2005, he struck out three times for every walk. This year, strikeouts have come every two-and-a-half walks. Pitchers will most likely start walking him more often, due to his awesome power. In 166 career games, getting on base has not been a problem, as Howard owns a .356 OBP.
Home Runs
This year, Touch ‘em all on Baseball Tonight has featured some absolute bombs by Howard. In fact, according to hittracker.com, the longest homerun this year belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies slugger. It was a 491-foot monster-shot to straight away center at Citizen’s Bank Park. Six of his other twenty-one blasts have gone longer than 420 feet.
As written earlier, Howard’s power is not as a pull hitter like most other homerun hitters. None of his thirteen homeruns hit at home have gone to rightfield. Eleven of them were to the opposite field and two of them were to dead center. It must be difficult for pitchers to pitch to this guy. If they pitch it inside, he will hit a sharp single up the middle or to leftfield. But if they go to the outside part of the plate, Howard will take it the other way, for a homerun. They have to hope he swings in misses, because balls put in play land for a hit 31.3% of the time, 40.6% if HRs are included. In other words, if Howard hits the ball fair, he is a .406 hitter. Yikes!
It is time to reveal the most amazing statistic of Howard’s season, complements of hardballtimes.com. Forty-percent of Howard’s flyballs to the outfield have been homeruns. Not surprisingly, a slew of sluggers are behind him in the rankings; however, they are rather far behind him. In second place is, ironically, Jim Thome at 30.1%. It isn’t even that close. Pujols, Soriano, and Adam Dunn fall in right behind Jacque Jones in the high-20’s.
After Jim Thome went down with injury last year, Philadelphia turned to Howard and he has put on a show ever since. Homeruns traveled out at a pace of one every 14.2 at bats for him in 2005. This year, his game has gone to a whole new level. Howard has left the yard at a rate of one every 10.2 at bats. That number ranks in the top 25 for a single season, right ahead of Mickey Mantle’s 1956 season. If given 600 at bats at this pace, Howard would hit about 59 HRs. As a proud fantasy owner of Mr. Howard, I will now cross my fingers and hope for the best.
Date
Fri 06/09/06, 9:01 am EST
