Running Back Matchups
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If I told you that Ahman Green and Cadillac Williams may be top 10 running backs this year, you’d probably stop reading. Well, Ahman Green and Cadillac Williams may not end up being top 10 backs, but they certainly have favorable schedules to help them this fantasy season. As you can see below, they have the second and third easiest schedules when averaging their opponents’ rushing defense statistics from last season. Green has four games against the terrible run defenses of Indianapolis and Tennessee, which combined with the zone blocking scheme of Gary Kubiak, could lead to fantasy gold for the Houston RB. Similarly, Cadillac has a soft schedule, which is particularly easy at the beginning of the season. Look for him to breakout early and get more looks at the end zone with the retirement of Mike Allstot. To briefly explain the statistics below, the Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game is the average rush yards given up by opposing defenses, Balance breaks that down into first and second halves, and Playoffs are the playoff matchups and average yards in those three crucial games. Playoffs take into consideration weeks 14-16, since this is the standard playoffs in fantasy. All of the statistics do not take week 17 into consideration, as most leagues have their championships in week 16. The parenthesis next to ORYA/G and Playoffs is each team’s ranking in that category. As a bit of a qualifier, these are last season’s statistics and they may change, so use this to inform your decisions and not as gospel. I have also provided my own commentary, because for some reason I assume you’re interested. I’m probably wrong. Hope these help you in your drafts and seasons:
Jacksonville :
(1) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 127.7 Balance: 1st – 128.3 2nd – 127.2 (23) Playoffs: CAR, @PIT, OAK – 110.3
Comments: Jacksonville gets six cushy games against terrible run defenses in Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. This schedule makes both Mo Jo-Drew and Fred Taylor more valuable.
Houston :
(2) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 126.6 Balance: 1st – 117.9 2nd – 136.5 (3) Playoffs: TB, DEN, @IND – 135.4
Comments: Houston is another team that benefits from playing in the AFC South’s weak run defenses, which means Ahman Green should have a great year if he stays healthy. That’s a big IF.
Tampa Bay :
(3) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 125.3 Balance: 1st – 130.5 2nd – 119.3 (18) Playoffs: @HOU, ATL, @SF – 115.6
Comments: Look for a bounce back year from Cadillac with such a cushy schedule. He may be one of the top running backs after a few weeks, with an easy early schedule.
Baltimore :
(4) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 123.8 Balance: 1st – 125.4 2nd – 122.1 (4) Playoffs: IND, @MIA, @SEA – 133.6
Comments: How many reasons are there to like Willis McGahee this year? His value just got a boost and a half.
Carolina :
(5) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 123.0 Balance: 1st –132.0 2nd – 112.8 (25) Playoffs: @JAX, SEA, DAL – 107.3
Comments: Whichever running back emerges from the Battle of the De should be able to put up very nice numbers. Whether any one back does emerge is a whole different story.
New Orleans :
(6) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 122.9 Balance: 1st – 123.6 2nd – 122.1 (14) Playoffs: @ATL, ARI, PHI – 119.5
Comments: Get ready for an offensive explosion in New Orleans, as both their passing and running games go against weak defenses all year long. Both McCallister and Bush get a bump in value.
New England :
(7) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 121.2 Balance: 1st – 121.6 2nd – 120.8 (26) Playoffs: PIT, NYJ, MIA – 106.6
Comments: If Laurence Maroney can stay healthy he should be a fantasy all-star, but just in case, make sure you handcuff him with Sammy Morris. The playoff schedule is tough, so keep that in mind down the stretch.
Denver :
(8) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 120.7 Balance: 1st – 121 2nd – 120.3 (20) Playoffs: KC, @HOU @SD – 114.5
Comments: Denver running backs are always good, as long as Shanahan sticks with one throughout the year. Travis Henry could reap the spoils this year.
Atlanta :
(9) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 120.5 Balance: 1st – 111.6 2nd – 130.6 (12) Playoffs: NO, @TB, @ARI – 122.4
Comments: Should be a very rough beginning for Atlanta’s run game, as they start off with three consecutive solid run defenses. Starting week 4 the schedule gets much easier, so look to trade for Dunn or Norwood at that point in time. In fact, I think the schedule favors Norwood owners, as Dunn and the Falcons’ early struggles should have fans clamoring for the speedy, younger back and the coaching staff with no alternative but to go with a youth movement.
Arizona :
(10) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 119.2 Balance: 1st – 115.4 2nd – 123.5 (13) Playoffs: @SEA, @NO, ATL – 119.8
Comments: Mediocre across the board, but Edge should continue his ascent back to fantasy relevance and crack the top 15 backs at worst and top 10 at best.
Seattle :
(11) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 119.1 Balance: 1st – 122.6 2nd – 115.0 (30) Playoffs: ARI, @CAR, BAL – 101.0
Comments: Things look good for Shaun Alexander owners, as long as he can stay healthy. When the playoffs roll around, however, yards may get a bit tougher.
Miami :
(12) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 119.0 Balance: 1st – 122.3 2nd – 115.3 (29) Playoffs: @BUF, BAL, @NE – 103.7
Comments: As one of my keepers and the official owner of my fantasy heart, I would have liked to see an easier schedule for Run, Ronnie, Run Brown. That said, I hope his favorable early schedule results in a boost of confidence, which is all that stands between him and greatness—at least in my eyes.
Pittsburgh :
(13) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 118.4 Balance: 1st – 119.4 2nd – 117.3 (23) Playoffs: @NE, JAX, @STL – 110.3
Comments: The Pittsburgh schedule should neither hurt nor help Willie Parker, which is just fine, because his speed will continue to burn defenders. Top 10 back again this year.
Tennessee:
(14) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 118.4 Balance: 1st – 122.7 2nd – 113.6 (17) Playoffs: SD, @KC, NYJ – 117.2
Comments: Another middle of the road schedule, this should have the running back by committee in Tennessee confounded to mediocrity. The only back with any value is LenDale While, who should wrestle the starting job from Chris Brown after a few weeks.
Dallas :
(15) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 117.3 Balance: 1st – 111.7 2nd – 123.8 (11) Playoffs: @DET, PHI, @CAR – 123.5
Comments: Another running back by committee that I quite frankly don’t understand. Did Wade Phillips have to torture fantasy owners by maintaining Parcell’s thunder and lightning approach? I am a huge fan of thunder—lightning frightens me—which means my bets on Marion Barber. Either way, Barber should continue to get all the looks at the goaline.
Cincinnati :
(16) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 117.0 Balance: 1st – 114.9 2nd – 119.4 (2) Playoffs: STL, @SF, CLE – 136.2
Comments: Rudi! Rudi! Rudi! Mr. Consistent gets a consistently mediocre schedule for most of the season, but should be one of the most dangerous backs come playoff time. Historically this has been the case as well. Fellow Flea Fanatic Golden Boy should reap the benefits of his trade for Rudi in our keeper league, but he might have to make the playoffs to do it. With his talent level as a GM, that seems unlikely.
New York Giants :
(17) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 116.8 Balance: 1st – 118.4 2nd – 114.9 (1) Playoffs: @PHI, WAS, @BUF – 138.2
Comments: The biggest question is who will be around come playoff time to rack up massive fantasy points: Brandon Jacobs or Reuben Droughns? My money is on Jacobs, since the Giants will be out of the playoff picture by then and looking to the future.
Minnesota :
(18) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 116.7 Balance: 1st – 113.0 2nd – 120.8 (15) Playoffs: @SF, CHI, WAS – 119.2
Comments: The man with my favorite nickname, Adrian “All Day” Peterson, goes head to head with Chester Taylor for the starting spot for the Vikes. Taylor failed to impress last year and lacks the breakaway speed and sheer power of Peterson, which should mean the rookie gets more and more carries as the season progresses.
Kansas City Chiefs :
(19) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 116.3 Balance: 1st – 105.0 2nd – 129.2 (6) Playoffs: @DEN, TEN, @DET – 127.8
Comments: If LJ makes it through the season—which I highly doubt—he should be unbelievable in the semi-finals and finals of fantasy leagues, where he goes against two defenses we can count on being atrocious.
St. Louis :
(20) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 116.2 Balance: 1st – 118.0 2nd – 114.2 (27) Playoffs: @CIN, GB, PIT – 106.3
Comments: Now that we’ve spoken about LJ, Stephen Jackson has gotten upset. He’s about to take the league by storm, regardless of what defenses are put in front of him. However, if you are looking for a reason not to like him, the schedule could be your out.
Oakland: (21) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 116.2 Balance: 1st – 121.3 2nd – 110.5 (10) Playoffs: @GB, IND, @JAC – 126.1
Comments: Lamont Jordan should get a good start with a weak opening schedule, so look to pawn him off on an owner whose running backs falter. I can already see myself trading Jordan for Norwood after week 5, thereby assuring myself of the best of both players’ seasons.
New York Jets :
(22) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 115.4 Balance: 1st – 115.0 2nd – 115.9 (8) Playoffs: CLE, @NE, @TEN – 127.0
Comments: Thomas Jones owners beware; he has four games against perennial defensive juggernauts Miami and New England. If you haven’t drafted him already, make sure you don’t until he becomes a better value in the third and fourth rounds.
Washington :
(23) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 114.1 Balance: 1st – 116.8 2nd – 110.9 (32) Playoffs: CHI, @NYG, @MIN – 91.8
Comments: Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts? Neither.
San Diego :
(24) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 113.6 Balance: 1st – 107.4 2nd – 120.6 (6) Playoffs: @TEN, DET, DEN – 127.8
Comments: Who am I kidding? Does it matter who LT is playing? A better question: Why does he have to play my Raiders twice a year, every year? Tears falling down my cheeks aside, LT should have another stellar year, but will not reach the heights he did last year. Remember, Shaun Alexander was the number 1 pick in most drafts last year and he showed us how difficult it is to follow up record-breaking years. Did I say something about breaking? No, I would never wish that upon…
San Francisco :
(25) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 113.3 Balance: 1st – 112.7 2nd – 113.9 (31) Playoffs: MIN, CIN, TB – 99.3
Comments: Frank Gore’s value takes a hit, although he is still a top 10 back. He is on my list of runners to stay away from though, since he always seems to be fighting off one injury or another.
Philadelphia :
(26) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 112.9 Balance: 1st – 110.8 2nd – 115.2 (18) Playoffs: NYG, @DAL, @NO – 115.6
Comments: Speaking of backs I will stay away from, meet Mr. Westbrook.
Chicago :
(27) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 112.7 Balance: 1st – 111.0 2nd – 114.6 (28) Playoffs: @WAS, @MIN, GB – 104.3
Comments: One of my bust picks was Cedric Benson. I am ever more convinced now.
Cleveland :
(28) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 111.6 Balance: 1st – 110.1 2nd – 113.2 (5) Playoffs: @NYJ, BUF, @CIN – 129.2
Comments: I like Jamal Lewis this year as a third back off the bench or in the flex position. The Browns improved their offensive line, Lewis has motivation after being dropped by the Ravens, and he has a very soft playoff schedule. Could be one of those guys who wins the league for you down the road. Grab him as your third back if you can.
Indianapolis :
(29) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 111.4 Balance: 1st – 115.4 2nd – 106.9 (21) Playoffs: @BAL, @OAK, HOU – 110.7
Comments: Another one of my keeper backs, Joseph Addai. I wish he had a better schedule, but nothing can stop the Indy offense, especially with so much attention on Manning and the passing game. I predict Addai will have an incredible first 3 weeks of the season, in which he will lead the league in yards and scores. Why? Three numbers: 23, 30, 20—the rushing defense rankings of his first 3 opponents.
Green Bay :
(30) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 110.8 Balance: 1st – 110.5 2nd – 111.2 (9) Playoffs: OAK, @STL, @CHI – 126.3
Comments: Everyone clamoring for Brandon Jackson, take his recent concussion as a sign of things to come. Brutal schedule. I don’t see much RB value in Green Bay this season.
Detroit :
(31) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 109.0 Balance: 1st – 112.7 2nd – 104.8 (24) Playoffs: DAL, @SD, KC – 108.3
Comments: Before this column, I thought Tatum Bell was ready to have a breakout season. Now, I’m not so sure.
Buffalo :
(32) Opponent Rush Yards Against/Game: 108.9 Balance: 1st – 106.5 2nd – 110.9 (15) Playoffs: MIA, @CLE, NYG – 119.2
Comments: Again, Marshawn Lynch was one of my busts. If his 9 carries for 9 yards in the final preseason game didn’t convince you, stay away. I repeat, stay away from Marshawn Lynch. Don’t draft him unless you can get him for value. STAY AWAY!
Once again, I hope this helps you in your draft and throughout the season.
Take it easy,
-- Toby Guevin
