Rookie of the Year Predictions

Predicting rookies of the year this late in the season is not very risky but I look for either Dustin Pedroia or Daisuke Matsuzaka to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Matsuzaka is one of two rookie pitchers to win over 10 games with 14 wins, and Brian Bannister being the other with 12 wins. Delmon Young has better power numbers than Pedroia, but Pedroia is performing under the pressure of being in a pennant race so I give the award to Pedroia.

In the NL, Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Kendrick lead in wins with 8-4 records but the award will go to Ryan Braun, who has hit 30 homers and driven in 83 runs. Chris Young has 30 homers and 26 stolen bases but Braun hit his 30 home runs in 124 fewer at bats. So my prediction is that Dustin Pedroia and Ryan Braun will be the rookies of the year in 2007.

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Niteowl049AAA-er

805 days ago

Score 4

Romiezzo...thanks for the edit.

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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Anytime Niteowl. I love editing your articles. ;)

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Yakob878MVP

803 days ago

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pedroia beats dice k eazily

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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Good picks, Niteowl. Ryan Braun: there is no doubt that he is NL Rookie of the Year. I like your Dustin Pedroia pick as well, but I think Dice-K is outta this picture for a couple of reasons: #1: He's a rookie per se, so voters will take that into consideration. #2: Dice-K hasn't done nearly as much to help win games as Pedroia has. 12 losses, 4.41 ERA, and a 1.337 WHIP; not really good stats. .326 BA (8th in the AL), 150+ hits, 76 runs scored, and 11.8 at bats per strikeout (not really a great statistic, but I'm throwing it in anyways); pretty dang good stats if you ask me. When you watch Dustin play, you can see that he has this urge for winning, and is willing to sacrifice his body and make a diving play whenever there needs to be in order to win games. He's a good player, and helps the Red Sox win a lot of ball games.

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Niteowl049AAA-er

805 days ago

Score 2

You are exactly right about Dice-K. 4.41 ERA doesn't give him much chance of winning. Pedroia has played well in the pressure cooker and is outplaying J.D. Drew. Drew finally got a big hit yesterday but law of averages was just catching up with him. A strikeout every 11 at bats is very good stat.That is almost 3 games striking out just once total. You post some great stats in your comments. 35 doubles is another good stat for Pedroia. Ought to be interesting today with Clemens vs. Schilling.

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ChristofMVP

805 days ago

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Kendrick may get the nod if he has a great final two weeks and the Phils make the playoffs.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

805 days ago

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For third place, maybe...but Braun and Tulowitzki have been much, much better this year. Hunter Pence too, probably.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

Score 3

I give it to Delmon Young in the AL - THE Dominating outfield arm in MLB, excellent defense, good baserunning, a clubhouse leader as a rook and FIVE separate double digit hit streaks in his rookie year (only second rookie EVER to do that) ROY isn't the MVP award, if your team is in playoff consideration it has NOTHING to do with ROY. If you want to consider "playing under pressure", then how about playing as a Devil Ray, with the scrutiny of being a #1 overall draft pick and the onus of being labelled "the bat throwing guy"?

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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I definitely agree with you, Manny. Sure, Young is an honorable mention, and sure, he's an honorable mention, but don't you agree I agree that when it comes to the ROY, voters do consider it the MVP award. Many people thought Ryan Zimmerman should've won the Rookie of the Year award? He didn't even get 2nd place. Bottom line: Delmon Young should be treated the same as Dustin Pedroia.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

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When you realize how few teams try to run on Young, it's even MORE amazing when you realize he has 16 assists and 7 double plays from RF. NO outfielder in MLB (not just RF) has as many assists and DPs combined this year (he's second in assists and first in DPs).

Pedroia is at best a slightly above average fielder (that's a stretch)

Given, Pedroia has a higher average, but isn't it VERY safe to assume he has more protection in the lineup (BoSox or Rays?) and the Green Monster as an advantage (they surely wouldn't be tied in doubles) Safe for me to say that if they swithced teams, you'd never have heard of Pedroia and Delmon would be touted as better than Dwight Evans.

Stop the Boston Myopia!

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

805 days ago

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Romie, Zimmerman was second in the NL ROY last year (and only four points behind Hanley - who also had a great year - for first).

http://www.b....shtml#NLroy

And Manny, OF assists aren't usually a great way to measure an outfielder's throwing ability - people run on rookies and newly converted outfielders much more often because they don't know their abilities (that's how Soriano led the NL in assists for most of last year). And DP's would measure the same thing as assists; an outfielder only gets a double play when throwing somebody out on a sac fly, which counts as an assist too. Young certainly belongs in the discussion, but Pedroia's a good fielder at a much tougher defensive position, and I think he's done enough at the plate to get my ROY vote.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

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Exactly my point, KW. They DON'T run on Delmon! And he STILL gets assists - he has had several assists to first base this year...

LEADING MLB in outfield double plays is absolutely a pretty good indication he has a great arm. Of course, several baseball writers NOT named Manny Stiles have said that Young's arm IS the best in baseball.

Out of curiosity: HOW MANY of people (or voters for that matter) calling Pedroia ROY have seen Delmon Young play this year?

Don't forget that Pedroia will get votes taken away from him by Dice-K

Either way: You guys go give oral to Pedroia all you want - let's bring this discussion up again in ten years, twenty years and we'll see who knew what the eph they were talking about...

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

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Oh, and a DP from the OF is also making the catch and getting the ball back to the base BEFORE the runner does. He has the 4th most OF assists from a rookie in the last 50 years!

The only knock you can make on Delmon is that he doesn't walk, takes less pitches (38.1%) and swings at the first pitch (51.3%) more than ANYONE in baseball.

Leading ALL rookies in hits, has FIVE separate hitting streaks of 10 games or more isn't enough at the plate?

Again, he plays for the Rays so WHO has been protecting him in the lineup? Greg Norton? Josh Wilson? Dioner Navarro? Brendan Harris?

So he's a guy without protection, that doesn't take a lot of pitches and STILL is doing what he has... just wait, just wait.... he turned 22 on Friday.

Hmmm... Who bats behind Pedroia?

More stuff for you - Delmon is 10th in the AL at .359 with RISP - that's 10th in the AL, not just rookies. He leads ALL MLB rookies in that category.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

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Or if you DON'T think assists, DPs or statistics are an indication of a guy's arm - just ask the scouts and coaches

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Silencer76AAA-er

805 days ago

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For as good as you tout Young's arm, he has just one more assist than Soriano has for Chicago despite playing 25 more games. Young also has 7 errors out there as well.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

805 days ago

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Okay...Young definitely has a great arm. I just don't think using assists and double plays is the way to prove that. There's more to outfield defense than just a throwing arm, though, and though I don't trust the fielding stats a whole lot, it looks like Young's range is about average. And I still don't see why it's necessary to use both assists and DP when any double play is also an assist.

Offensively, it seems like you're cherry-picking stats...sure, Young has more hits than Pedroia, but that's because he's had 120 more at-bats. Pedroia's BA is basically the same as Young's, and his OBP is sixty points higher; he's also hit for just as much power.

I do agree that Young will be the better player in the future. But the ROY isn't about what each player will do in the next 10 years, it's about what they've done this year. Young's played more, but Pedroia's gotten on base more and plays the tougher position.

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SalmanpourVarsity

805 days ago

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redsox got a couple of good rookies, like pedroia and Dice-k if you wantched the Yankee and redsox game, 1-10 win for the redsox, rookie player Hinskie did amazing. Especially when last at bat he hit a hommer.

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

Score 4

Hey Salmanpour, Hinske isn't a rookie, just to let you know.

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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Good catch Romi...

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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And yes, I agree, Salmanpour. The Red Sox definitely have good rookies, but it's not just Pedroia and Dice-K. There's also Okajima, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clay Buchholz, who are all doing really well right now.

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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And when I mean right now, I mean this year, JuT.

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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Any thoughts on Okijima? He is a rookie and has been very valuable to the Sox. I still like the award going to Pedrioa

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JuTMSY4Legend

805 days ago

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yeah, Okajima looked great on Friday...

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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Everyone gets hit eventually, and I mean EVERYONE. Its one game... come'on are your serious?

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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In my opinion, Okajima has a better chance than Dice-K.

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RomiezzoLegend

805 days ago

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Hey JuT, Kei Igawa did good on April 28th, pitching 6 shutout innings, and only 2 hits. Does that make him good?

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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Sorry Dustin, I have to give the edge to Kei because of the start in April...

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JuTMSY4Legend

805 days ago

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no, it also makes him not that good...

Okajima is a middle reliever...and for that reason, he won't win it

I'd give it to pedroia i guess...

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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I know he won't win it... I choose Pedroia too... but he has been probally the second most valuable rookie in the AL

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Yakob878MVP

803 days ago

Score 1

he deserves it but, no one cares about rp's that are not closers

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WizardmanRed-Shirting

805 days ago

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Pedrioa/Braun sounds right to me.

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NejoshiDiv-I Stud

805 days ago

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Braun is killing Chris Young in the batting average department in addition to the power numbers. He's an easy choice. I think Pedroia is an easy choice as well. Good call.

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Hit By a PitchVarsity

805 days ago

Score 4

Troy Tulowitzki deserves to me mentioned here.

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Falcon02520Legend

805 days ago

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Troy has been huge of late to his team, and has put up good numbers late in the season (when it matters most), plus a few walk off hits. Deffinatly deserving, but with the numbers Braun has put up, I still have to give the edge to Ryan.

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Silencer76AAA-er

805 days ago

Score 3

I definitely would give Tulowitzki serious consideration. There are not many rookie SS that come in and pop 20 homers a season. A .295 average and 86 RBI is nothing to sneeze at, he has a .985 fielding percentage and has committed just 11 errors in 753 chances going into today.

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KelsdadAll-Star

805 days ago

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All of the voters calling Pedroia ROY have seen Young play, Manny.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

805 days ago

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I guess we'll see when the votes are tallied, won't we? These are the same people who called Derek Jeter MVP at this same time last year...

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Niteowl049AAA-er

805 days ago

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Tulowitzki has really been hot the second half...He had 6 homers and 25 RBI's in August and in the first half of September has 3 homers and 14 RBI's. Not bad having 39 RBI's in a month and a half. Plus he has 21 homers this season while Helton only has 13. Both players are slugging an identical .476.

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Niteowl049AAA-er

805 days ago

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Helton must have read what I wrote...he just hit No.14.

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KelsdadAll-Star

805 days ago

Score 5

By "several assists at first base", you really meant two?

Delmon Young's assists:

Four at home: Three direct throws, one with help from a cutoff man. Three on fly ball/tagups, one on a basehit. Threw out Chris Gomez, Victor Martinez, Jim Thome and Aubrey Huff...guys he's supposed to throw out.

Two at first base, one fell on his way back to the bag.

Five where the runner was caught in a run-down.

Seven where the runner was trying to stretch a hit, five to second and two to third. All the throws to second were direct throws, (shortest throw for any outfielder0, one throw to third was direct, the other a relay.

One was on an error he actually committed. Dropped a fly ball, threw out runner trying to go to second.

Rightfielders should have more assists as they have the longest throw to third, thus have the strongest arm. They also rack up assists as they utilize the cutoff man more than any other outfielder. Does Young have a plus arm? Yes. Should he have alot of assists? Yes. Nothing special going on here.

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TehLokiVarsity Captain

805 days ago

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I hope Kendrick gets the NL ROY. He's a AA callup, thrown right into the mix and has taken advantage. He pitches well, hits his spots and makes it to the 6th inning or on more times than not (I think 14 out of his 17 starts.).

It'll probably go to Bruan because he's just been on fire and is an all around great player. Don't be surprised if Kendrick possibly steals it though :]

As for the AL, I haven't paid too much attention to the AL but from the sounds of it Pedoria and Young seem to be the top 2 candidates.

Matsuzaka looked OK early on but he gives up too many runs from the games I saw.

What I want is Kendrick/Young

What will happen is Braun/Pedoria

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JuTMSY4Legend

805 days ago

Score 4

I don't think Kendrick really has a shot...he's been a good pitcher but Braun has been a phenom...

Kendrick, however will be a nice mainstay for the phils for a while, i hope

he'll get consideration, but not the award...

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TehLokiVarsity Captain

804 days ago

Score 0

I know, Kendrick I think has done a bit more than braun, by keeping the Phils in the race with his consistent pitching, but then again, stats always win and Braun has them, even with his average defense the man is abeast, I'm not gonna deny that

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RomiezzoLegend

804 days ago

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Who cares about defense when you're voting for the ROY, anyway, Loki? Unless it's really tight, which in this case is not, Braun is the winner.

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TehLokiVarsity Captain

804 days ago

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Defense plays a part how you look at a fielder too. But liek I said, stats only matter to most, and he's got em.

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Kwitt11Varsity Captain

803 days ago

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Calling Braun's defense "average" is like calling the Bengals' defense yesterday "pretty good".

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RomiezzoLegend

804 days ago

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Possible outcome: the Red Sox rookies eliminate each other. Some idiots will vote for Clay Buchholz. Hideki Okajima, Dustin Pedroia, and Dice K will get some votes, but usually, I'm thinking that the Red Sox may eliminate each other. Think about it. Like the 2006 Marlins. It almost made Zimmerman win. Who knows?

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Niteowl049AAA-er

804 days ago

Score 0

Hope Pedroia doesn't lose because of Dice K being on the ballot too.

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Niteowl049AAA-er

804 days ago

Score 0

If not for Kendrick the Phillies would be out of the race now. If their starting rotation had stayed intact all season the Phillies would be ahead of the Mets by a few games today. Not question about the Phillies hitting. May have the best batting order in baseball when you consider they have Rollins, Utley, Burrell, Howard and Rowand at top of the order. Burrell has really turned it around in second half. Before All Star game he was 11-37 and hit .215...since then 17-53 and .319. His on base percentage of .406 is highest of his career and his slugging mark of .514 is the second highest of his eight year career.

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MoPrekiWaterboy

803 days ago

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Nobodys giving any love to Brian Bannister? 12-8 with a 3.39 ERA pitching for a horrific Royals team. He recently got rocked by the Yankees so his ERA shot up .30 yet its still in the low 3's. This man is your Rookie of the Year Award winner for the AL, over Pedroia, Dice-K, Okajima, and Young. Even though he pitched a few games for the Mets last year, he is more of a Rookie than Dice-K and hes put up the solid numbers to back it up. He will lose some votes because hes not on a popular team or in a playoff race, but I feel he should win the award based on raw stats. Another player to keep in mind is KC closer Joakim Soria.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

803 days ago

Score 0

Yes, Delmon Young and I thank all of you for blah-blahing about Dustin (2 for my last 14) Pedroia while Young has 7 rbi since this article was posted.

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Rookie of the Year Predictions

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