Robinson Cano, Raul Ibanez, and the Law of Averages
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It took them a while to figure it out, but Robinson Cano and Raul Ibanez finally seem to let Bernoulli's Priciple do its thing.
Huh?
Oh, you might know Bernoulli's Principle as the "law of averages." Forgive me for a second here while I get "statty."
For a good chunk of this season, Cano and Ibanez were well along the path to terrible seasons. May 17, Cano was batting a meager .234 with one home run, a far cry from the All-Star season he put together last year. Ibanez was worse. As recently as July 28, the Mariners outfielder was batting just .252 with six home runs. Yikes!
After their early-season struggles, something has clicked for each player. In one ten-game stretch at the end of July, Cano hit 19 for 41, or .463, with three home runs and 10 RBIs. Ibanez is in the midst of a 25 for 53 (.472) stretch dating back to August 7, in which time he's hit nine of his season-total 15 home runs.
And to think I thought about trading or benching these guys in my fantasy league!
Seriously, though, I held on because I knew that things would even out, as they usually do in baseball. Ibanez got so far behind that it will still be a below-average season for him, but his recent hot streak has rewarded me (and the Seattle Mariners!) for my patience. Ibanez has been the epitome of steady over the last five seasons, so why should this be the season he stops?
Cano was more likely to falter this season, but he had assembled a .319 average over the past two seasons. I figured that more than likely he'd find his way above .300, or at least hit there for a good clip of the season.
Of course, for every Ibanez and Cano, there are statistical freaks like Magglio Ordonez and Vernon Wells to talk about. Ordonez, of course, is hitting forty-something points above his career average and well on his way to an MVP. Wells, after signing a sizable extension in the offseason, is 20 points off of his career average and has seen a significant drop in power numbers.
Baseball is great for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is statistics. And with a large enough sample size, the law of averages usually plays out pretty well.
At least, that's what I thought I heard the Cubs saying.
This article is also posted at All on the Field sports blog.
