Quarterback Ratings
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The first thing I want to say is that I love animals.
With that said, Michael Vick has changed my life.
You see, I was shooting the bull with my chick the other night and she referred to attending a gathering with a bunch of our friends that we hadn’t seen in a while as “killing a lot of birds with one stone.” Immediately I chastised her for using such careless words and implying that killing our feathered friends was in some way good. I began hoping that those birds of a feather my girlfriend was attempting to murder did not flock together.
That’s when it hit me—Michael Vick has changed my life.
Suddenly, the fantasy championships that I had seen as feathers in my cap had me wondering where those feathers had come from. Could my girlfriend possibly be so mean? I was about to figure there was no point in riding a high horse or any sense in beating a dead one when I shuttered. Michael Vick had opened up one giant can of worms.
Overcome by emotion, I started squawking like a chicken with my head cut off. Quickly realizing how inappropriate this was, I became as quiet as a mouse and felt sick as a dog. As you know by now, this was even worse. “What’s wrong?” asked my concerned girlfriend. “Doesn’t she know that curiosity killed the cat?” I thought. Not wanting to let the cat out of the bag so my girlfriend could kill it, I refused to answer like the proverbially stubborn mule. I stayed quiet as a mouse; but, even the best laid plans of mice and men don’t hold up under the eagle eye of a curious cat. In quick succession, I went from a sitting duck to a lame duck and, finally, a dead one. I burst into tears.
“What’s wrong?” asked my girlfriend, who wouldn’t hurt a fly.
I was sweating like a pig, but knew I was on a short leash. I had to get the monkey off my back.
Like a lamb being led to the slaughter, words began flying out of my mouth like a bat out of hell: “I had a fantasy draft last month and I thought the charges against Michael Vick were going to be dropped I mean who would do that to a dog it couldn’t be true and I didn’t draft another quarterback until the last round when I drafted Charlie Frye and he plays for the Browns who have a section of fans called the Dawg Pound and if they find out well I think they might kick my ass.”
- “Toby.” - “Yes.” - “You take fantasy sports way too seriously.”
I was clearly barking up the wrong tree. “Besides, any decent fantasy football player would never take such a huge risk at quarterback without having at least a back-up plan,” she said. I was eating crow. I had been thrown to the wolves. Even worse, my girlfriend thought she was the cat’s meow. I headed immediately to bed, in hopes that it was all a bad dream. As I left the room, she spoke, beating the dead horse I had tried to avoid on my way to the bedroom.
- “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth; when you do your column on quarterback rankings, make sure to tell everyone not to draft Michael…” - “Goodnight,” I interjected, cutting her off mid-sentence. - “Goodnight, don’t let the bed bugs bite,” she responded.
Michael Vick changed my life—I now get fantasy football advice from my girlfriend.
With that, here are quarterback rankings. Oh yeah, don’t draft Michael Vick.
In ranking the quarterbacks, I have used their three-year averages (or their average career stats if they have not played three years in the league) to help create an idea of the type of production that can be expected from them. I did not factor injuries into the equation because this accounts for the injury history of a given player. For example, Marc Bulger’s game averages would be much higher that those provided below if I had accounted for his 10 missed games over the past three seasons. Hurt quarterbacks do not get you any fantasy points, so I figured this was a good way to account for the injury risk. Fantasy Points is the fantasy points scored on average over their three years as an aggregate number and average per game (20passyd = 1 point, TD = 4, Int. = -2,1RushYd = .1, RushTD = 6, Fumble = -1). Trend is my personal feeling of whether they are improving, declining, or staying the same, based on my opinion and statistics. Schedule is the number of passing yards on average that the defenses they are facing gave up in the 2006 season (higher the better for a QB). This should give you an idea of whether they have a good schedule to help them or a bad schedule to hinder them. Balance breaks this average into first half and second half, so you can see when the quarterbacks are likely to excel or go on a run. Playoffs are the matchups for weeks 14-16 (standard playoff weeks) with their opponents and the average number of passing yards per game those defenses give up. As a qualifier, the pass defense of teams are bound to change from year to year, in fact, last year teams changed an average of 22.8 yards per game in either direction. There will be variation from team to team, but as a whole the results for this year should be somewhat similar. Use these stats to help inform your decision, but don’t go solely on them. That’s the key. Finally, the ranking are personal opinions reinforced by statistics and my all-knowing powers of how the quarterbacks will rank at the end of the year. The statistics are actual statistics that I worked far too hard to bring you, so please use them. Like my girlfriend said, I take fantasy sports way too seriously. I hope these rankings and the numbers help. Best of luck drafting, you’ll notice Michael Vick is nowhere to be found.
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
3-Yr. Avg.: Yards - 4,234 TD - 36 Int. - 10 RushYd - 40 RushTD - 1 Fumbles - 2
Fantasy Points: 341.7 or 21.4 FP/G Trend: Even Schedule: 202 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 202.7 2nd – 201.3 Playoffs: @BAL, @OAK, HOU - 184.8
Comments: Should have a very good season, even for his standards, as a result of a suspect defense that may lead to many shootouts. That said, be wary of the playoff schedule, since it is the toughest in the league.
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,589 TD – 26 Int. – 14 RushYd – 42 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 7
Fantasy Points: 258.7 or 16.2 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 204.1 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 200.6 2nd – 207.5 Playoffs: STL, @SF, CLE – 205.2
Comments: Carson has a number of offensive weapons and—although he took a slight step backwards in terms of TDs last year—he improved his yardage (not to mention he was coming back from major knee surgery). Look for him to match his TD number of two years ago (32) while maintaining the 4,000-yard production he mustered in 2006.
3. Drew Brees, Saints
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,718 TD – 26 Int. – 11 RushYd – 55 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 8
Fantasy Points: 271.4 or 16.9 FP/G Trend: Up Schedule: 205 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 203.7 2nd – 206.1 Playoffs: @ATL, ARI, PHI - 217.3
Comments: Brees should have similar numbers to last year, although a slight drop in yardage is possible. He has one of the better playoffs schedules with Atlanta and Arizona in weeks 14 and 15.
4. Marc Bulger, Rams
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,521 TD – 15 Int. – 10 RushYd – 54 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 5
Fantasy Points: 222.5 or 13.9 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 211.7 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 208.1 2nd – 215.3 Playoffs: @CIN, GB, PIT – 219.2
Comments: Bulger’s averages are a bit misleading, since he missed half of the 2005 season. His numbers continue to improve from year to year and he has a strong supporting cast. His schedule is also looking favorable, although it may be a bit misleading since the 49ers—who the Rams play twice—with their acquisition of Nate Clements should be much improved over last year’s atrocious pass D that ranked 26th.
5. Tom Brady, Patriots
3Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,777 TD – 26 Int. – 13 RushYd – 73 RushTD – 0 Fumbles – 8
Fantasy Points: 266.2 or 16.6 FP/g Trend: Even Schedule: 200.9 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 207.2 2nd – 194.7 Playoffs: PIT, NYJ, MIA – 200.5
Comments: Many people see this as a boom year for Brady because of his revamped offense, but I predict he will end up with similar numbers to the past few years. Even though the Patriots have upgraded their wideouts significantly, Bilichick’s ball possession and short-pass offense will not be abandoned and Brady’s number will only be a tick higher than usual.
6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,009 TD – 22 Int. – 8 RushY – 162 RushTD – 2 Fumbles – 6
Fantasy Points: 244.7 or 15.3 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 209.4 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 215.9 2nd – 203 Playoffs: NYG, @DAL, @NO – 208.5
Comments: With McNabb the story is always his health. He has missed 13 games the past two seasons, yet has still put up serviceable numbers. If he stays healthy, he will likely finish as the #2 fantasy QB; if he doesn’t, don’t be shocked. Do you take the risk? I don’t, not with a plethora of solid QBs from which to choose.
7. Jon Kitna, Lions
3Yr. Avg*: Yards – 3,659 TD – 21 Int. – 18 RushYd – 71 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 9 * Kitna’s last 3 years as a starting QB (2002, 2003, 2006)
Fantasy Points: 235.1 or 14.7 FP/g Trend: Even Schedule: 209.4 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 201.5 2nd - 217.4 Playoffs: DAL, @SD, KC – 209.4
Rank:
Comments: I’m not sold on Kitna despite his presence in an undeniably talented offense. He still has a porous offensive line that gave up 63 sacks last year, plus he makes far too many mistakes to be a consistent performer. Expect a decent amount of fantasy points as a result of his offense, but expect them to come in bunches and droughts.
8. Vince Young, Titans
Last Year*: Yards – 2,199 TD – 12 Int. – 13 RushYd – 552 RushTD – 7 Fumbles – 12 *Young has only started for one year.
Fantasy Points: 217.2 or 13.6 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 197.0 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 190.3 2nd – 203.7 Playoffs: SD, @KC, NYJ – 203.5
Comments: Young’s schedule is brutal, with games against top pass defenses like Oakland (Before you laugh, they were tops in the league last year and return all starters), Baltimore, Carolina, and New Orleans. That said, you almost expect him to do better in these games, since he should have ample opportunity to run when he finds no open receivers on the horizon. Looking at Young’s stats from last year, they would be pitiful, except for his rushing statistics. Before you compare him to another anonymous rushing QB, Young’s 7 rushing TDs last year was better than Vick in any season of his career, except one. I went into this exercise thinking Young was going to get the shit blitzed out of him and have a disastrous year, but after a deeper glance, I expect solid numbers from him again.
9. Eli Manning, Giants
2-Yr. Avg*: Yards – 3,503 TD – 24 Int. – 18 RushYd – 51 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 9
Fantasy Points: 237.3 or 14.8 FP/g Trend: Even Schedule: 209.3 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 209.7 2nd – 208.9 Playoffs: @PHI, WASH, @BUF – 199.5
Comments: Surprisingly, despite having what many would consider a terrible season, Eli still threw for 24 touchdowns last season. This year he has a consistently soft schedule to help him out, as well as a defense that is sure to keep him playing catch up. His completion percentage and Int. ratio are the things to be worried about, although he should rack up yardage going against prevent defenses.
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 2,840 TD – 17 Int. – 14 RushYd – 104 RushTD – 2 Fumbles – 3
Fantasy Points: 201.4 or 12.6 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 205.6 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 211.1 2nd – 200.1 Playoffs: @NE, JAX, @STL – 194.1
Comments: Roethlisberger is someone to keep an eye on this season. Although his numbers certainly don’t strike fear in the heart of fantasy opponents, there is room for optimism. He is entering a pass-friendly system under new head coach Mike Tomlin and should have two capable receivers with the emergence of Santonio Holmes (another player to keep an eye on). I see him having a breakout season and repaying the few fantasy owners who will entrust their fantasy lives to Big Ben. Just don’t get behind a motorcycle with the guy.
11. Alex Smith, 49ers
Last Year*: Yards – 2,890 TD – 16 Int. – 16 RushYd – 147 RushTD – 2 Fumbles – 9
Fantasy Points: 194.2 or 12.1 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 210.1 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 207.5 2nd – 212.6 Playoffs: MIN, CIN, TB – 228.9
Comments: Another player I feel is ready to have a breakout year. Smith is an intelligent dude who should have a sound grasp of Mike Nolan’s playbook by now, plus he showed exponential improvement over his first campaign. Also, look at his playoff schedule. Minneapolis and Cincinnati were tied for last in pass defense last year and neither team made major changes in the offseason. If you don’t draft him, follow up closely and try to steal him for a playoff run. I predict similar numbers this year to those of Rivers last year.
12. JP Losman, Bills
Last Year*: Yards – 3,051 TD – 19 Int. – 14 RushYd – 140 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 13 * Losman has really only started for one season, although he did play parts of the starting QB role for the Bills in 2005.
Fantasy Points: 207.6 or 13.0 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 205.2 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 209.3 2nd – 201.1 Playoffs: MIA, @CLE, NYG – 206.2
Comments: Losman finished off the year on a solid note and his prospects are looking fairly good for this year. Blossoming receiver Lee Evans should keep the deep threat open and he should continue his development into a top-half quarterback, with the possibility of sneaking into the top 10.
13. Philip Rivers, Chargers
Last Year*: Yards – 3,388 TD – 22 Int. – 9 RushYd – 49 RushTD – 0 Fumbles – 8
· Rivers has only started for one year.
Fantasy Points: 236.3 or 14.8 FP/g Trend: Even Schedule: 199.1 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 203.5 2nd – 194.7 Playoffs: @TEN, DET, DEN
Comments: I’m not big on Rivers this year, especially because he has a fairly brutal schedule and his head coach is Norv Turner. Don’t get me wrong, Turner is a brilliant offensive coordinator, but he is no head coach. With a continued emphasis on the run in San Diego, look for Rivers to struggle to match last season’s production.
14. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
Last Year*: Yards – 2,547 TD – 11 Int. – 12 RushYd – 49 RushTD – 2 Fumbles – 8
Fantasy Points: 156.3 or 9.77 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 207.3 PassYd/g againsat Balance: 1st – 204 2nd – 210.7 Playoffs: @SEA, @NO, ATL – 203.7
Comments: I am a big fan of Leinart from his days at USC—my brother went there—but I don’t see stardom for him this year. I don’t see him as a complete disappointment either, but he should hang around between the 15 and 10 spots for QBs with a late surge due to a nice second half schedule.
15. Jay Cutler, Broncos
Last Year (5 games): Yards – 1,001 TD – 9 Int. – 5 RushYd. – 18 RushTD – 0 Fumbles – 8
Fantasy Points: 69.9 or 14.0 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 198.3 PassYd/g Balance: 1st – 191.4 2nd – 205.3 Playoffs: KC, @HOU, @SD – 209.1
Comments: A lot of people are picking Cutler to breakout this year, but—partly due to my Raider loyalty—I am not one of them. First of all, Cutler has a very difficult schedule and I’m not sold on his wide receivers. Rod Smith is old and Brandon Marshall has yet to prove anything to me, leaving Javon Walker as the only proven threat. That said, Cutler is a talent and this should propel him toward the top-half of fantasy quarterbacks.
16. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
Last Year (4 games, 3 starts): Yards – 475 TD – 2 Int. – 4 RushYd – 77 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 4
Fantasy Points: 33.5 or 8.4 FP/g Trend: Up Schedule: 207.9 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 208.9 2nd – 206.9 Playoffs: @SF, CHI, WASH – 212.1
Comments: Jackson is my quarterback sleeper of the year due to his athletic ability, easy opening schedule, and coachability. If you want more, take a look at my full description of his merits in the sleeper/bust column, if you haven’t already.
17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
3-Yr. Avg: Yards – 3,094 TD – 21 Int. – 13 RushYd – 81 RushTD – 1 Fumbles – 4
Fantasy Points: 222.8 or 13.9 FP/g Trend: Down Schedule: 207.5 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 210.6 2nd – 204.4 Playoffs: ARI, @CAR, BAL – 202.2
Comments: Hasselbeck is one of my picks as a bust this year. 2005 was really his only decent year in terms of fantasy points and he is in serious need of some wideouts. Deion Branch is quality and DJ Hackett is a potential sleeper, but do you really want to put too much trust in Nate Burleson or Bobby Engram? I think the Seahawks will be one of the teams that take a fall this year and Hasselbeck will go along for the ride.
18. Tony Romo, Cowboys
Last Year*: Yards – 2,903 TD – 19 Int. – 13 RushYd – 102 RushTD – 0 Fumbles – 9
Fantasy Points: 196.4 or 12.3 FP/g Trend: Down Schedule: 205.7 PassYd/g against Balance: 1st – 202.5 2nd – 209 Playoffs: @DET, PHI, @CAR – 199.7
Comments: Tony “Carrie my Underwood” Romo is another one of my choices for busts this season. He had a terrible end to last season, not even counting the Butterfinger episode that will always make him synonymous with Bart Simpson. He threw 8 Interceptions in his last 5 games with very low completion percentages in 3 of those 5. Of his first 7 games, 5 are against teams that finished in the top 12 in pass defense last year, which should make it a rough beginning to this season—thereby completing the circle of life.
I hope this information helps you when drafting quarterbacks this season. If so, feel free to let us know by dropping a comment or sending an email to Flea.Fanatics@gmail.com. If you have any other information or statistics you think would help, feel free to let us know as well, and we’ll do our best to get them for you. Even if you hated this column and its content, let us know so that we can grind out better columns in the future.
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading. Best of luck with your drafts,
-- Toby Guevin at Flea Fanatics
