Predictions After 30 Games
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by user Willf123
If one was to look at the Major League Baseball standings today you would be led to believe that the Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, Cleveland 105, and Milwaukee a whopping 114 games. We all know that this is just as ridiculous as baseball writers stating A-Rod was on pace to hit 90 homeruns etc. What I like to do is take these first 30 or so games and compare them to last year to get a more accurate sample of where a team would end up if the season played out. Using last year is not entirely accurate, but it is the best set of data we have to go on as teams still generally have 80-90% the same makeup of players from year to year. Lets check and see how this applies. Right now Boston has a record of 22-10, if today going forward they play similar to last year they will end up with a record of 91-71 a five game improvement on last year. This figure will adjust slightly up or down as the season progresses. If they happen to finish with a record of 91-71 that will be a full 5 games better than last year, but 3 games behind the NYY. Here are some projected records:
AL
- Detroit 96-66
- NYY 94-68
- Min 93-69
- Oak 91-71
- Bos 91-71
- LAA 88-74
- Clev 83-79
- Sea 79-83
NL
- NYM 98-64
- LAD 90-72
- SDP 88-74
- ATL 84-78
- MIL 83-79
- STL 81-81
- HOU 81-81
- AZ 78-84
- CHC 69-93
What does all of this mean? Well I would tell fans of my beloved Red Sox that they would need to maintain this 6 game lead till at least the all-star break to win the division. Atlanta needs to almost maintain its pace and Cleveland shouldn't get too excited yet. For those who picked the Brew Crew to win the NL Central this year you are looking pretty good right now but dont discount St.Louis and Houston in what promises to be a close race.
