Potential Second Half Pitching Struggles
| 8
|
by user Cochise
There is no question that the key to the Tigers first half success has been the surprising dominance of their pitching staff. Going into this week’s series with the White Sox the team has a major league leading ERA of 3.54; which tops the ’05 White Sox staff that dominated the American League. Unfortunately, Tigers fans are so wrapped up in the pitching successes of the first of the season that they are oblivious to the troubles that could lie ahead.
I am as high on these Detroit Tigers as the next fan, but when looking at the starting pitching staff one has to see the potential for a second half slump. How long can a rotation comprised of half mediocrity and half inexperience (Kenny Rogers excluded) keep up its dominance game in and game out? There is no telling if the pitching will hold up with first year Tiger pitching coach Chuck Hernandez and manager Jim Leyland, but if history repeats itself the second half might not be so bright at Comerica.
The ace of the team and American League all-star starter Kenny Rogers has already begun to slip a little bit as his ERA has risen above 4.00. In his last two starts he has only survived 9 2/3 total innings and has given up nine earned runs including four homeruns. While his experience is unmatched on the team and his talent is no doubt still there, don’t expect his 41 year old body to help his second half. Throughout four of the last five seasons Rogers’ ERA has risen after the all-star break, including a jump from 2.54 to 4.72 last season.
Justin Verlander and Zach Miner are simply too young and inexperienced to know what to expect from them down the stretch. Verlander has been arguably the best pitcher for the Tigers thus far and was a very noticeable all-star snub. He leads all Tigers starters and trails only Francisco Liriano and John Lackey in the AL with a 2.83 ERA that, as of late, seems to shrink every time he takes the mound. Leyland already seems to be holding Verlander back so as not to wear down his young arm. He rarely hits 100 mph with his heater anymore, and seems to come out of games earlier than necessary. Miner, too, has been very impressive in his limited opportunities, but he will probably be removed from the starting rotation when Mike Maroth returns from injury. Even if Miner does manage to stay in ‘the show’ there is little chance the young gun will be able to put forth the performances he has been throughout the rest of the season.
Mike Maroth was very impressive at the beginning of the season. Aside from one abysmal start in Kansas City where he gave up six earned runs on six hits in 1/3 of an inning, he seemed to have finally forgotten about the 21-loss season in 2003. However, right when it looked like Mike would put up a career year, he went down with an elbow injury. Nobody knows if Maroth will return to his early season form when he comes back from elbow surgery and comes off of the Disabled List sometime in August.
Now I know that most Tigers fans favor Kenny Rogers or the up-and-coming star, Verlander, but my pitching Tiger has got to be Nate Robertson. Maybe it’s that beard, maybe it’s the glasses, or maybe it’s the enormous wads of Big League Chew he shovels into his mouth to get his team rolling, but I just like him. Unfortunately for Nate, my praise and cheers do not translate into second half success. His ERA after the all-star break is a whopping 5.96 as opposed to his 3.60 before the break and he’s a dreadful 9-19 in the last half. My favorite pitcher is 0-3 in his last 3 starts including a 7-1 loss to those hated White Sox yesterday, which cannot be a good sign for the rest of 2006.
The second half of this season has got to be Jeremy Bonderman’s time to shine. Bondo has the whole package to be a star in this league. The past two years I have thought it was time for Bondo to take over, but his pitching has been average and his team has given him little help. Even though Jeremy has been weaker in the second half (like the rest of his veteran colleagues), he has been on a roll as of late and I see no reason as to why he should stall in the second half. He is coming off of a spectacular June where he went 2-0 in five starts with an ERA of 1.77, and his July seems to be shaping up nicely as well. He has a young arm with pitches capable of dominating teams, and finally does not have the pressure of being the team’s ace with the addition of Rogers. Who knows if this will actually be Bonderman’s break-out season, but if he can’t become a star in these last 69 games than the ball club may run into some troubles.
This Detroit Tigers squad lives and dies with its starting pitching. These pitchers are relied on to go out there and put in six or seven good innings each day. Nobody in Detroit, myself included, wants to see Leyland make the call to the bullpen for Roman Colon, Jason Grilli, or Wilfredo Ledezma in the early innings to get us to Zumaya or Rodney. When the starters do survive into the later innings, we will always need a two or three run cushion going into the 9th to make up for Todd Jones’ incompetence.
Todd Jones aside, I love this Tigers club and the idea of a playoff game at Comerica gives me chills, but I am trying my best to be a realistic onlooker. Nothing would make me happier than to see this pitching staff continue its brilliance all the way into November. I do not mean to be harsh to my ‘Motor City Kitties’, but for this team to remain successful the pitchers have got to stay hot. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different tale for the second half of the season.
On a side note, Tigers hitters have scored fewer runs than the White Sox, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays; their biggest playoff competition.
http://www.allaboutdetroitsports.blogspot.com
Date
Mon 07/24/06, 5:18 pm EST
It may sound biased, but I don't see the same for the Tigers.