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Playoff Sods 6 Oct. 2007

10
Vote

by Tyduffy

The pedantic stat-heads often pontificate about how there is no difference between post-season at bats and regular season at bats, and that judging a player like A-Rod or Vlad by their post-season at bats is ridiculous because of the small sample-size.

But, are these at bats really the same? Stress and pressure have been proven through both experimentation and common experience to affect human performance in every other facet of life. Why is baseball the one unique human endeavor where these variables would not apply?

Surely, the intense individualized pressure and the change in routine associated with playoff baseball would affect how a player performs. And, it is quite reasonable to assume that certain players would be better or worse at handling this pressure. The vitriol which A-Rod receives is probably not warranted. But the "he's great in the regular season" argument does not exactly explain how he is 4 for 50 with no RBIs since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS.

MLB will also be thanking a higher power that the Red Sox look a fair bet to make it to the second round. With the Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs are all down 2-0, making them pretty safe bets to be eliminated. The potential Diamondbacks-Rockies NLCS is not exactly going to reel in the casual fan. The Red Sox still have the gravitas with the average fan to draw in viewers and keep people on the East Coast awake long enough to watch. They can at least save baseball from the unspeakable disaster that would be an Angels-Diamondbacks World Series.

The TBS coverage has actually not been that bad, and has provided a welcome respite from the trio of Joe Buck, Tim McCarver, and Scooter for at least a round. They did a good service debuting TBSHD in time. The sound quality at home plate has been excellent and added a new dimension to the broadcast. The announcing has been passably mediocre without being annoying. They have overplayed the Frank TV promos, but at least they are varied and funny enough that people don't want to shoot him. Turducken BOOM! There is also the added humor of Craig Sager's wardrobe. Are we at Odds and Sods the only ones who can't understand a thing that comes out of Jose Mota's mouth?

Originally published here.


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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
822 days ago
Score 1+-
What's always bugged me about some stat gurus is that they seem to imply that past performance equates to future probability. In other words, in their minds, a .300 hitter WILL get a hit 30% of his at-bats, or a .400 OBP guy will get on base 40% of the time. They ignore the human element and the unpredictability of choice and performance. The player might have gotten on base 40% of the time in previous appearances, but in any given appearance (or series of appearances), his OBP will be determined by him and the other players involved (particularly the pitcher), it will not be determined by probability. I'm not sure if that made sense.
Permalink | Reply
Bberg11Varsity
822 days ago
Score 0+-
As long as a player has a large enough body of work in the playoffs, then they should be considered poor playoff performers, if in fact the numbers show that. One poor series isn't enough to label someone a guy who chokes in the playoffs. But ARod has had plenty of at bats. He simply has not performed well under the pressure of the playoffs, and deserves the criticism he gets.
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Kwitt11Varsity Captain
822 days ago
Score 3+-
A-Rod had 53 great postseason at-bats as a Mariner, but nobody remembers those. He also had 50 great at-bats in 2004, but those also aren't remembered. The only at-bats anybody remembers are his 35 terrible at-bats since 2005.
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
822 days ago
Score 1+-
I think some people remember those series, which is what amplifies his recent struggles. I don't think he's as bad in the post-season as people make him out to be. What happens is people who don't watch the Yankees see him on SportsCenter, and every time they see him, he has a big hit. Even people who watch the Yankees, they tend to remember the hits more than the outs (even though the outs are more numerous than the hits). But in the playoffs, every at-bat is watched and magnified.
Permalink
DonatevoMajor Leaguer
821 days ago
Score 0+-
A-Rod is poor in the playoffs.
Permalink
Bberg11Varsity
821 days ago
Score 0+-
He's a .268 career hitter in the post season. Is that good? I dunno, not for someone who makes close to 30M a year.
Permalink
Kwitt11Varsity Captain
821 days ago
Score 0+-
What if he were a .290 hitter? Would that be good? Because the difference between .268 and .290 is exactly three hits.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
822 days ago
Score 2+-
YEAH, those goddamn pedantic, assholish stat-mongering motherfuckers should just stop ruining baseball, for God's sake. I mean, shit, ever since Billy Beane first wrote Moneyball, it's just been one pedantic pontification after another from these dumb fucks. I say, enough is enough. Let's all let Bill Plaschke tell us how to feel instead! McCarver for President!
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
822 days ago
Score 1+-
Lovely. I blame that botched comment on those pencil-necked, pedantic, pontificating morons that believe in sabermetrics. Damn them. Damn them to hell.
Permalink
TyduffyRed-Shirting
822 days ago
Score 2+-
I think that sabermetrics etc. has a place. I just think, like anything, you can get too carried away with it. Despite our best efforts, it's still hard to nail human behavior to an exact science. I just dislike people who spout someone's VORP as if that is the sole answer to all inquiries and then disregards everything else.
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TyduffyRed-Shirting
822 days ago
Score 1+-
Julio Lugo should be case in point that Bill James is not always infallible. If the projections don't work it is always the players' fault or a fluke, not the precious statistics.
Permalink | Reply
DonatevoMajor Leaguer
821 days ago
Score 0+-
I think at this point it is fair to consider A-Rod to be a poor post season performer.
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