Playing Gm..From Bill Smith's View point
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by Mike Ketchen
www.thebaseballfix.blogspot.com
Imagine for a second you are Bill Smith. You have just been apointed General Manager of the Minnesota Twins. You got a good solid foundation to build around as well as a good fan base. Now your first task as GM, real easy. Simply find the best deal and trade the most dominating pitcher in all of baseball, who by the way is in what is considered his prime. No sweat right? This is what I have been pondering. I have been running all the scenarios through my mind on how the Johan Santana situation plays out. I do however have a slight bias as I have been looking through a Red Sox prospective. Now I want to look at this from Bill Smith and the Twins perspective. First, let's look at the known bidders. We have the Boston Red Sox, who are openly admitting they are still in talks. We have the New York Mets, who need Santana the most and are also open about wanting him. Then, there is of course the New York Yankees. Granted, publicly they have said there window has passed, but I highly doubt (and I am certainly not alone in this) that if the Twins come calling with a little more suitable deal to there liking they are not going to say no. There is lastly speculation that a team like the Los Angeles Angels or the Los Angeles Dodgers could also be in. Now let's break down potential deals from all of these teams and decide which one makes the most sense from both sides. Keeping in mind that the Twins are looking for at least two Major League ready prospects in return.
Twins to Angels:
Twins to Dodgers:
Twins to Yanks:
Twins to Red Sox:
From a Twins' standpoint, either one of these proposals would be given them at least three players ready to step right in and contribute. Also one thing that can not be overlooked is the fact that Johan has said he would waive his no trade to come to Boston, not to mention that the Red Sox are the only team along with the Yankees who have shown that the money will not be an issue.
Personally, if I was Bill Smith, I am passing on the Angels and Yankees offer and I am trying to get a bidding war between the Dodgers and Red Sox going. If the Dodgers come to the table with Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, and another piece or two, I think I am leaning that way. However, I do not see it happening and I still believe that Johan Santana ends up with the Red Sox next season.
There are two proposed packages on the table from the Sox to the Twins. Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are involved in both. One package would include Jon Lester and Coco Crisp, the other would feature Jacoby Ellsbury. Out of all these prospects, Ellisbury is the obvious star. He will hit for a solid average and fill the hole left by Torii Hunter in center. Also, he would provide a great threat at the top of the lineup, stealing 35 to 45 bases along the way. The one thing that may be overlooked in all this is that the Lester package may be better for the Twins in the long run. Lowrie who is ready to contribute now is involved, as well as Masterson who can contribute as a starter or even contribute in the bullpen where his mid 90’s sinker could proof to be a huge weapon in late innnings by season’s end. One more thing on Masterson too. If he does come in and contribute in the bullpen it may make moving Joe Nathan easier, as they can slide Pat Neshek into the closer role a little less stressful. Then there is the lefty who throws in the low 90’s and features both a nasty curve and a solid sweeping curve. We forgot that Lester was a top pitching prospect in all of baseball just two years ago. His ceiling projects just as high as Phillip Hughes and he has proven more then any other pitcher being mentioned in these trade talks. Also, Coco Crisp is not simply a throw in. He played arguably the best center field in terms of range in all of baseball last season and is under control for short money for the next 2-3 years depending if they pick up his option. Also if the Twins see fit they could flip him to another team in the hunt for a CF for more prospects.
Supposed deadlines aside. I still don’t know if this can get done. When you read up on the players the Yanks would have to include you hear mixed things. Some see Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as front line starters. Others see Hughes as a one pitch pitcher with good command but far off with his secondary stuff. As for Kennedy, I just do not see him dominating in the AL. If you break him down I think his celing is probably what James Shields is in Tampa. But most pitchers can not be a one or two in a rotation with a sub par heater. I think the Twins may also not be completely sold on either being a sure thing. Which would explain why they have insisted on the inclusion of both. This deal could happen though if the Yanks do decide to step up and offer both Kennedy and Hughes with Melky Cabrera (what the infatuation is with him, only god knows.) and Austin Jackson. Again, this deal would help the Twins both next season and over the next 2-5 yrs as all will be under control for cheap money. This one has not gained as much steam as I thought, which could mean two things. First, the Dodgers do not want to pay what Santana will command. Second, they are in like most thought, they are however just being very quiet about it. (a-la the Sox in Bedard talks) The Dodgers certainly have the talent to pull this off. If they include a package built around Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw (regarded by many as top pitching prospect in baseball). I also think this could help the Dodgers sure up there bullpen if they are maybe willing to exchange Jonathon Broxton for Nathan. From the Twins standpoint, Kemp provides a promising young OF who is major league ready and Kershaw could slot right in behind Francisco Liriano. Giving the Twins a potentially dominating one two punch in 2-3yrs from now. There is few different scenarios that have potential here, however I do not see this becoming a reality at all. The Angels could build a solid package around Jered Weaver. However they have displayed an unwillingness to trade there prospects. Most of which in my opinion they have greatly over valued.
