Pittsburgh Pirates April Roundup
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
This sparkline, courtesy of The Hardball Times, shows the Pirates have been hot of late. The red bars indicate games won or lost by 2 runs or less. Lines pointing up are victories and down are losses. The Pirates have had only one substantial winning streak, but they sat at 11-11 coming into Sunday's game.
| Starter | 1st Start | 2nd Start | 3rd Start | 4th Start | 5th Start | Average Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Duke | ** | ***** | 0 | 0 | *** | 2.0 |
| Ian Snell | ***** | **** | **** | *** | **** | 4.0 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | *** | ***** | *** | ***** | **** | 4.0 |
| Paul Maholm | 0 | 0 | *** | **** | 0 | 1.4 |
| Tony Armas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The above chart gives a rating of 0 to 5 for each pitcher's starts. The ratings are based on strikeouts, walks, innings, hits allowed, and home runs, without taking earned runs into consideration. Snell and Gorzelanny's scores indicate their peripheral stats have been strong, suggesting their ERA's are not a result of good luck. Maholm on the other hand has a relatively low ERA for such a bad score. His ERA was very much helped by his complete game shutout. Armas' and Duke's poor ERAs are reflected in their subpar game scores.
| Reliever | IP | ERA | VORP | ARP | WXRL | LEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salomon Torres | 11.0 | 7.36 | -3.6 | -5.1 | -0.509 | 1.89 |
| Matt Capps | 12.3 | 0.73 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 1.280 | 1.84 |
| Shawn Chacon | 17.0 | 2.65 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.676 | 1.88 |
| John Wasdin | 11.0 | 6.55 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 0.014 | 1.65 |
| Jonah Bayliss | 11.7 | 3.09 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.526 | 1.17 |
- ARP is the number of runs prevented, WXRL is the number of wins added above a replacement pitcher, and LEV is the leverage of the situation, the higher number being a more important situation.
As witnessed by the stats, closer Salomon Torres is on thin ice. Torres has a track record of success, but he may not have the guile to close games. If the Pirates keep on winning, Tracy should not wait too much longer before handing over the reigns to Capps. Pittsburgh may want to keep Torres closing, however, to try and raise his stock for a potential trade at the deadline. He, Capps, and Shacon have been used by manager Jim Tracy in the most crucial situations. Capps has excelled, Chacon has been decent, and Torres has flat-out stunk. Bayliss has been the other notable performer in the bullpen. With Paul Maholm back from injury, the bullpen will be deeper from this point on.
| Starter | GS | ERA | W-L | TmW% | VORP | SNLVAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Duke | 5 | 6.92 | 1-2 | 0.424 | -4.3 | 0.1 |
| Ian Snell | 5 | 1.59 | 2-1 | 0.721 | 14.2 | 1.5 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 5 | 3.06 | 3-1 | 0.552 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| Paul Maholm | 4 | 3.96 | 1-2 | 0.516 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Tony Armas | 3 | 11.57 | 0-2 | 0.213 | -7.9 | -0.6 |
- SNLVAR is the number of wins added above a replacement pitcher. TmWn% is the expected winning percentage of a team given the pitcher's starts.
Ian Snell has given the Pirates a chance to win like an all-time great team when he takes the mound. Gorzelanny has been the other notable starter on the staff. Maholm has kept the Pirates in games, but he hasn't pitched much better than a .500 pitcher. Duke, regarded as the ace coming into the season, has struggled out of the gates. However, he is coming off of a strong start. Armas has been pitiful and the Pirates are destined to lose every time he walks out to the mound.
| Player | Position | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duffy | CF | .286 | 1 | 5 | .368 | 3.0 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | .293 | 1 | 4 | .337 | 4.5 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .220 | 0 | 4 | .262 | -3.6 |
| Jason Bay | LF | .271 | 3 | 16 | .361 | 4.5 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | .267 | 3 | 12 | .323 | 1.9 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .132 | 3 | 10 | .264 | -4.9 |
| Ronny Paulino | C | .211 | 1 | 5 | .233 | -3.6 |
| Jose Bautista | 3B | .291 | 1 | 5 | .307 | 2.9 |
The Pirates offense has been saturated with underperformers to start the year. Last season's batting champ, Freddy Sanchez, is playing banged up and has not gotten his bat working yet. Jason Bay leads the team with 16 RBI, but his total value is not at its normal All-Star level. Adam LaRoche and Ronny Paulino have flat-out fallen way short of expectations. On the bright side, leadoff hitter, Chris Duffy, has shown a good ability to get on base and use his speed to make things happen.
Overall, the Pirates have exceeded expectations by ending April around .500. The pitching staff has had its share of gems, but they will need to overcome a pitiful #5 starter and a struggling closer. None of the batters are overachieving, while there are certainly underachievers.
Outlook for May: POSITIVE
