Opening Day Storylines

by user Forseti

This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting baseball seasons in recent memory. Every division seems competitive beyond the norm and there is an infusion of young players that will make games fresh and intriguing, even during traditional August lull. Here are some of more intiguing story lines:

• How does Alfonso Soriano and the rest of the Cubs spending spree pan out? Second, Left, Center, Starters and some complementary players have completely changed the look of this team. The question is whether or not the mindset has changed for the Cubbies. I might be down on the Cubs after Kerry Wood's latest injury, but I get the feeling that the Cubs will just be kind of flat and content to win 90 games. I think Derek Lee and Jason Marquis are the catalysts, if they produce and play most of the season then the Cubs make it to the postseason and finally win their division for the first time since 2003.

• Will the Red Sox starting rotation be as dominant as it looks on paper? Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon is pretty freightening for a lot of teams. Wakefield is a great 5th starter too, he'll be solid and never miss a start all season. Matsuzaka will grab all the headlines and will probably win 13-15 games, but I think the only way that the Red Sox beat the Yankees is if Papelbon is an effective starter. He could be a Josh Beckett from last year; going back and forth from dominant to awful, and if he does then the BoSox better hope that the AL Central beats up on each other enough so that they can grab the Wild Card over multiple 85 win Central teams that split with each other.

• Will anybody care about Barry Bonds breaking Aaron's record? I mean, it's pretty much a certainty that Bonds used steroids of one form or another. However, it is important to recognize that Barry Bonds never broke a single rule set down by the MLB or the Player's Union. The interesting thing in my mind will be the ongoing Bud Selig drama, whether or not the commissioner of baseball attends the games when Barry is sitting on 754 and 755 will be a nice little soap opera. I used to be a huge Barry Bonds fan, even though it was painfully obviously he was cheating, he was the best player in baseball and it was kind of a guilty pleasure to watch him. Now that he is a struggling malcontent that plays horrendous defense and just hits endless towering pop-flys, he is just a cheater and doesn't hold the same appeal for this man.

• Will Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols begin a career-long rivalry this season? They are wonderful people, amazing hitters with different styles that produce freighteningly similar results. Last year, Pujols 15-game injury stint basically cost him the numbers to beat out Howard for the MVP. I think this year they show everyone that they are two-of-a-kind and they are at the top of every offensive category and carry their teams to the postseason and battle it out for the MVP. I can't wait to see them this year. Pujols is the pick though because he is more disciplined.

• The AL Central is absolutely stacked, but will it truly be 4-deep? The Tigers and Twins look like surefire bets to be postseason contenders, but the White Sox and Indians have something to prove and loaded rosters. Prohibitive favorite is the Tigers (added Sheffield and all those young arms have another year under their belts) but if the White Sox staff turns it around and Gavin Floyd is serviceable then they are a really scary team (Thome, Dye, Konerko is a murderer's row). The Indians have a solid lineup and if the bullpen comes together then all their solid starting pitching won't go to waste. If Marte, Peralta and Barfield all play up to their potential then they are up there with the Tigers and Twins. My hunch is that one team pulls a Cleveland and dissapoints from the start, I think it will be a pretty close 3-way race until August.

• Which team will take control of the NL West? The Dodgers, Padres and D-Backs look great and the Giants and Rockies are no slouches. The Dodgers spent a lot of money and the Giants will rue the fact that Schmidt pitches against them at least 3 times every year until he retires. Zito will have a bit of a rennaissance in the NL as these hitters don't adjust to his curve for a bit. Randy goes back to his old ways and we see him smiling a lot. The Rockies demonstrate that they have a stocked farm system with great young talent in Holliday, Tulowitzki and Atkins. Fuentes also joins the elite ranks of closers in the Majors. The Giants are old, there is no getting around it, but if they can stay even a little healthy they will be amazingly consistent and can ride a good (maybe great) staff to the postseason. Basically, if Morris, Zito and Cain perform, then they have a great 1-2-3 starting staff with good bullpen guys. Padres are basically just hoping that everyone gets a little better and Peavy turns it around. I think this will be the most exciting division in baseball and 4 teams are within 2 games heading in to the last week.

• How well do Carlos Zambrano, Ichiro and Andruw Jones perform in their contract years? Zambrano will set the bar for ace-caliber pitching contracts for years to come. If you think Zito's contract was crazy, then wait until you see Zambrano's next year. Im guessing fewer years (6 rather than 7) and around $20 million/year. Ichiro has his critics and those that say players of his skill set (speed, slap-hitting, etc) have history on thier side that he is due for a downturn, but I have this feeling that Ichiro plays out of his mind and goes out to get a giant contract from one of the AL East guys. Could you imagine if Coco Crisp continues to struggle and the Red Sox pick up Ichiro?! There would be so much media that Peter Gammons would have to learn Japanese just to properly fawn over his BoSox. Andruw Jones will go .290-40-110 while looking like he cares again, count on it.
  • Here are some other guys who are in contract years. I know that most of them will have deals in place before the season ends, but look for bigger than normal years out of the guys who don't get a mid-season extension : Bartolo Colon, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Alex Rios (could have been an All-Star last year), John Smoltz, Chris Capuano (Will get Ted Lily money), Scott Kazmir, Luis Gonzalez, Jake Westbrook, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Paul Lo Duca, Chad Cordero, Ryan Zimmerman, Erik Bedard, Khalil Greene (a lot to prove, but could break the bank if he hits at all), Freddy Garcia, Aaron Rowan, Ryan Howard (will be re-signed at any cost, he could ask to beat A-Rod and Gillick would have to consider it), Freddy Sanchez, Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, Brad Wilkerson, Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, Matt Holliday, Brian Fuentes, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Juan Rincon, Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, Joe Crede, Tadahito Iguchi, Bobby Abreu (he has an option but he will hit the market, or at least pretend to in order to leverage Cashman), Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera.

• Will A-Rod bolt for another team? He has money, so he doesn't need to go somewhere else to make more. My guess is that he stays, I just don't see him quitting without winning a World Series and the Yankees are not winning the World Series this year. I know it's foolish to discount a team with that stocked of a lineup, but they still have the same problems they did last year and have done little to address them. Igawa will not shore up their rotation, they lost Johnson and they still have an iffy bullpen. I just can't see them mashing past the Tigers/Twins/Angels starting staffs in September and October. So, the Yankees flop in the postseason and A-Rod continues with the Yanks hoping for some more pitching (sounds an awful lot like when he was with Texas, huh?) and biding his time until 2010 when his contract is up and he can move somewhere else.

Bball3345Draft Pick

964 days ago

Score 4

I wouldn't call Bonds a "struggling malcontent."

1. His .343 EQA last season was just a little below his career average and still one of the tops in the league.
2. He still had 12 at bats per HR in the second half last season. Not historic, but still a very strong number.
3. He is reported to be looking "athletic" this spring training. If he has his legs, than Bonds will be jacking HRs out left and right.

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ForsetiPee Wee

964 days ago

Score 1

When he makes it to the plate, he is a good bat. However, he plays [i]horrible[/i] defense, doesn't run well and let's face it, this guy throws bats away sometimes. I'm just saying, if I were Sabean I could find a better use of $16 million+incentives. Bottom line: this guy played 130 games and went .270-26-77. Also, dont throw OBP in the mix because he scored 74 runs, which is awful for someone with that high of an OBP. Finally, lets look at trends. He will be 43 in July and he has been regressing since 2004. He no longer has the crutch of performance enhancers and he will not be in the top 1/3 of NL OF's, except for payroll where he is top 3 (behind Lee and Soriano).

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JB82Div-I Stud

964 days ago

Score 1

EQA? You and your sabremetrics... ;-)

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Bball3345Draft Pick

964 days ago

Score 2

Ok, I'll give it to you he doesn't play strong defense anymore, and he doesn't run well.

Umm... the reason Sabean is paying Bonds is because a) he's the best hitter on the team and b) he puts butts in the seats.

Why can't I throw OBP in the mix? The reason he scored "only" 74 runs probably has more to do with who hits behind him, don't you think? Also, do NOT blame his "low" runs on his foot speed. Over the course of a season, there are very few situations in which a player would have scored had he been faster. Yes, it probably cost Bonds a few runs, but nothing substantial. About 99% of the blame falls on his teammates.

He has been regressing because he was hurt. Knee surgeries will do that to you. Look at points 2 and 3 above. It is not entirely unlikely to expect Bonds to be 100% healthy this year, as he claims to be. Don't you remember what a healthy Bonds can do? This man has been defying the normal age trend, why should it stop now?

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Bball3345Draft Pick

964 days ago

Score 2

EQA

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ForsetiPee Wee

963 days ago

Score 0

It is completely unlikely that Bonds is healthy all year and ludicrous to assume that he will be. He is a 42 year old man with bum knees and 20-25 pounds of excess bodyweight, injuries are part of the program.

My point wasn't that it was his footspeed that stopped him from scoring runs, it was that his high OBP matters little if he's not scoring runs. Also, he doesn't have anyone new behind him, so why should we assume that it will matter this year?

Also, yes he puts butts in the seats, but as we all know, winning does a better job of that than any single player and they could have gone out and gotten a premier, young, outfielder that would legitimately make this team a contender in a wide-open NL West. Lee, Soriano and Matthews all had better numbers last year and got comparable or less money in their new contracts.

Finally, from a franchise standpoint, I know that there are still Giants fans who adore Bonds, but they are growing fewer and further between. Sabean missed an opportunity to make a definitive statement that A) as a GM he is all about winning B) he doesn't tolerate bad behavior off the field (think impending indictment) and C) he is an advocate for cleaning up the game. As a pure fan of baseball that has a grasp of what it takes to balance a GM's obligations to the owners and his obligations to his players and MLB, I think Sabean dropped the ball.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

963 days ago

Score 3

So are you arguing that it would have been better for the Giants to have someone with a lower OBP? That doesn't seem logical.

This is what your argument sounds like to me:

1. Bonds got on base very often.
2. Bonds' teammates weren't good at hitting him in.
3. The Giants should replace Bonds with someone who gets on base less in the hopes of scoring more runs, because the people hitting behind Bonds are the same bad hitters that couldn't drive Bonds in.

Points one in two make sense, but the conclusion seems lacking in, well, common sense.

Carlos Lee and Soriano got much much longer deals, so their yearly salary will be less because of the risk of the longer contract. You don't think a one year deal for Lee or Soriano would have been at least as much as Bonds? Gary Matthews! You can't even compare Gary "one good year" Matthews to Barry "First Ballot Hall of Famer" Bonds. Matthews does not have any track record to back up what he did last year.

If a GM is supposed to not tolerate bad behavior off the field and advocate cleaning up the game, how is signing Gary Matthews (in the middle of a steroid investigation) helpful?

Sidenote, don't claim you are a "pure fan of baseball" and have a "grasp of what it takes to balance a GM's obligations..." I'm as much of a fan as you and one with the same grasp. Don't pull that I know more than you because I'm a bigger fan stuff; stick to making valid points if you want to be taken seriously.

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ForsetiPee Wee

961 days ago

Score 0

The argumnet I was trying to make wasnt that Bonds could be replaced by one player and fix the Giant's woes. They needed to put that money to multiple young players and develop a cohesive team rather than a divisive team that has only one identity: Barry bonds home run chase and surrounding off-field issues. The Giants aren't contenders this year, and they won't be until they start stocking up on talent that has a longer horizon than 23 home runs. Your taking single arguments made and then stringing them together with other, unrelated arguments. Dont criticize common sense in a non-sensical way.

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Niteowl049AAA-er

963 days ago

Score -1

If Bonds does pass Aaron which sounds better than breaking Hank Aaron's record I hope Bud Selig completely ignores Bonds not even making a phone call. If he did call Bonds probably would diss him on national television for not being there so it is better for Selig to go to a monster truck show that day than to recognize the biggest cheater in the history of baseball.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

963 days ago

Score 3

The biggest cheater in the game??? How so? What test did he fail? What proof do you have that he cheated more than anyone else, let alone cheated at all? How do you define the "biggest cheater?"

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Davis21wylieMVP

963 days ago

Score 3

Pfft. Proof? You want proof? We don't need no stinkin' proof! Isn't it enough that he's a monumental jerk, we hate him, and there's a pile of circumstantial evidence that makes it seem like he cheated? This is America! He's guilty until proven innocent (or at least until everyone forgets about Bonds on Bonds)...

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TylersaltAll-Star

963 days ago

Score 0

I think that even though Papelbon will be in the closer's role to start the season the Sox will be able to put up a fight for the AL East. Sure, the Yankees have a beastly lineup, but I'd be worried about their ability to prevent runs, not score them. The pitching is still a big advantage for Boston.

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KelsdadAll-Star

963 days ago

Score -1

C'mon everyone. Does anyone out there really doubt Bonds took steriods? Do you really need a failed test to change your mind, or even just sway your opinion? All you have to do is look at these guys. I don't need Barry pissing in a cup to know he's on something, his physical development, without help, is impossible. And anyone who either played sports or spent five minutes in a gym knows why. Don't look at the large muscle groups, the way to tell is looking at the smaller ones. Steriods develop muscles THROUGHOUT the body, not just the one's you are working on in your training. Look at his feet. Look at his ankles. Look at his wrists. That's where you can see the end result. Bond, Sosa, et al, are all cheaters, they all used enough steriods to turn a donkey into a freakin' Clydesdale, and if you need a failed to test to know that, then I feel sorry for you.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

963 days ago

Score 1

"Steroids develop muscles THROUGHOUT the body" Is there any proof of that?

"Look at his feet. Look at his ankles. Look at his wrists." When have you ever gotten a good look at Bonds' feet and ankles to the point you could conclude he is on steroids?

The point isn't that Bonds didn't take steroids (which you could say he took HGH not steroids, but I digress). The point is that our anger is focused at Bonds (never failed a steroid test, but is presumed guilty) and not at, y'know, everyone else. I mainly just had a problem with NiteOwl's assertion that Bonds was the biggest cheater in history.

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TartanVarsity Captain

963 days ago

Score 1

C'mon Kelsdad. Do you really think you can judge what pills a person had ingested by examing their appearance? You watch too much House.

Bigger question... Do you really think Barry Bonds is the only player to take steroids? MLB is trying to place the entire steroids blame on Bonds, and is succeeding pretty well at it, people hate him because he's a polarizing and easily despised figure. I'm inclined to believe Canseco on this one, maybe even more than his 60% of MLB taken illegal performance enhancers.

Look at Lance Armstrong, he doesn't have muscles coming out of him in crazy spots, but somehow he beat a field consisting almost entirely of cheaters for 7 straight years without any supplemental help. Either those other bike riders need their money back, or Armstrong is a superhuman species. Ben Johnson still has the fastest ever record 100 time for a reason.

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TartanVarsity Captain

963 days ago

Score 2

Wish I could spell and had any semblance of grammar

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ForsetiPee Wee

961 days ago

Score -1

The question at hand isn't "was Bonds the biggest cheater ever?" because there is no way to define that. The question is "who gained the most from cheating?" and that is quite clearly Bonds. He was a first-ballot hall of famer in his years at Pittsburgh and his time at San Fran would have made him beloved (despite being frosty off the field) by most of baseball because we could have appreciated the 5-tool player that he is. He didn't cheat because it wasn't against the rules, but we still have every right in the world to hate him for doing it because he is the natural focal point of our ire against all of baseball for cheating for so long.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

961 days ago

Score 0

Did Bonds gain the most from cheating? He was already a First-Ballot Hall-of-Famer, which you said, and now he is still a First-Ballot Hall-of-Famer. Other players went from people who wouldn't even make the majors to having productive careers and hitting that payday they never would have gotten. Couldn't it be argued that it was the borderline major-leaguer who used PEDs that gained more?

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ForsetiPee Wee

953 days ago

Score 0

Bonds status as a hall of famer didn't change as a I mentioned in my post. However, he did break the record for Home Runs in a season, break (presumably) the all-time HR record and let's face it, he tried to pull a fast one to be crowned the "greatest ever" and he got busted. His motivations to be the best of all-time (by doping or other means) are apparent by his behavior while chasing Aaron. He said he wanted to beat Ruth, but was going to stop before Aaron's record fell. Unless he plans on a major surprise early this season, he's not going to do that. Once again, Bonds lied and he just made a mockery of the game that we all love so much. In 30 years we won't be talking about that "just made" the squad a few seasons ago because he took steroids to give him that extra edge. No, we will be talking about the Bonds, the Canseco's (would have been in the Hall if it wasn't known that he was on roids), the Palmeiro's, Sosa, McGuire's. Yes, they were all major leaguer's with pretty good situations, but they transcended the rules and tried to become something else entirely. These are the ones that "gaiend the most" and Bonds is at the top of the list.

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KelsdadAll-Star

963 days ago

Score 0

Of course I can prove it, I wouldn't have made the statement otherwise. And you don't get big just by taking a pill, you still have to do the work to get the benefits.

Let's put personal opinions aside for a minute, and look at this from the legal standpoint.

Q: Why is Bonds facing perjury charges

A: Because, in front of a grand jury, and under oath, he was asked if he took steriods, and he LIED!

Doesn't get any simpler than that, does it?

And I'm aware Bonds isn't the only one who took them. And I'm aware there is the semblance of a witch hunt against him, but baseball only cares about getting the big fish. They keep throwing the little one's back in the lake til they catch the big one, and they will.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

960 days ago

Score 0

Bonds, the man who hit more HRs in his late thirties than his late twenties

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Bball3345Draft Pick

960 days ago

Score 0

Hank Aaron and Ted Williams, among others, hit as many or more HRs in their late thirties than in their late twenties.

Hank Aaron set his career high SLG at the age of 37. He also led the league in at bats/HR from the age of 37-39. He had never led the league in that category before.

Ted Williams second highest career SLG came at the age of 38. He led the league in at bats/HR in the same year.

So, what was your point about Bonds hitting more HRs in his late thirties than his late twenties?

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

960 days ago

Score 0

maybe do some research dogballs-

nobody could hit 60 homeruns for over 60 years, yet all of a sudden clowns are hitting 50, 60, 70 homeruns like it is nothing and ALL IN THE SAME FEW YEARS!!! 1986 16 1987 25 1988 24 1989 19 1990 33 1991 25 1992 34 1993 46 1994 37 1995 33 1996 42 1997 40 1998 37 1999 34 2000 49 2001 73 2002 46 2003 45 2004 45 2005 5

2006 26

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