On black *and* red?
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by user Bobman024
Y’know, this blogging isn’t just a carefree lark, entirely without responsibility. People’s lives are in our hands here, dammit!. Well, kinda, as shown in this email which was received at SnakePit Towers a couple of days ago:
“I’m traveling to Vegas next Friday. I’ve been doing a lot of research and it seems like AZ is the team to go with for the OVER of 77-79. Realistically what do you think their chances are of winning 80+? I’m selling everything I have & saving every penny I can & put it on them. Is this just wishful think or are they ready? It just seems at WORST they are going to win 76 games. Any insight will help, you seem to know and follow the team a lot…
I don’t have a lot of money & I very rarely place a bet for profit, but this is going to be one of them. I would really appreciate any input you can lend me. You only live once, right? I’m basically wonder if I should go all out or just place a decent size wager, but I don’t want to miss out by the time everyone finds out how good they are. I had a similar situation with the Saints last year and the Rams a few years back - sometimes you just know when a team is on the rise, but I feel this is the best yet…”
Wow. Here we sit, talking up smack about the Diamondbacks’ chances of success this year, and people are actually prepared to make life-changing decisions based on our discussions? Kinda brings home to me that this isn’t just a bar-room chat: every word we say is preserved for posterity. Even if I was to delete the site today, it would still live on in Google’s cache, and beyond that in the Internet Archive. Remind me to be a bit more careful about what I say. Anyway, here’s my reply to the reader seeking, um, “investment advice”:
Rule #1. Never gamble what you can’t afford to lose. Rule #2. See Rule #1. That said, I would say the Diamondbacks are definitely a good bet to win more than 79 games this year. My expectations at the moment are mid-80’s. Of course, there is scope for disaster, not least the question of whether Randy Johnson will be a decent #2 behind Brandon Webb. That aside, I think the offense is going to surprise a lot of people: these young kids can RAKE. I’m not sure what the line is on their runs scored - or even if there is one - but I’d certainly take the over on that.
I, personally, am also tempted just to put a low-wager bet on them winning the World Series. Last time I looked, you could get them at 50/1 or better, and that seems a steal. If Johnson is back, I can very easily see them making the playoffs, and from there on, who knows? I doubt any team would fancy facing Webb and Johnson in a short series, put it that way! Of course, all of this should be taken as coming with a pinch of fan optimism. But I feel better about this team than I have for a few years.
Another week of Spring Training in the books, and AZ now has posted a solid 11-5 record. We have the second best batting average in the National League thus far, and are leading in OBP, SLG and runs scored per game. So that side of our game really seems to be clicking, though there is some worry over Carlos Quentin’s shoulder, and he was taken out of a game “as a precaution.” Brandon Webb is also skipping his start today, but that just seems to be the organization being very, very cautious!
The pitching is, however, worrying me a bit, even beyond that. There has been a limited amount of action for most of our main starters, though matters are clouded somewhat by them playing ‘B’ games, out of the public eye, to avoid them starting against divisional rivals. However, some of these private outings have gone spectacularly wrong, such as the one by Doug Davis against the White Sox, where he allowed ten hits and four walks, while retiring just three hitters. Livan Hernandez has been flaky, but according to him that’s nothing new; however, I’d rather see him mowing down hitters. And, of course, Johnson has yet to face any opposition past his team-mates: that might happen in about a week to ten days.
The bullpen is, similarly, inconsistent. The good thing is, their walk/strikeout ratio remains healthy, which is perhaps a more reliable indicator of their progress than hits or ERA. But the tendency to give up a large inning still bedevils all our pitchers: Enrique Gonzalez and Casey Daigle combined to allow nine runs in one frame against Texas earlier in the week. Fortunately, the offense went one better, scoring ten in one inning, on their way to a wild 15-12 victory. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few more games like that once the season starts.
[ Jim McLennan writes with near-fanatical zeal about the Diamondbacks at the AZ SnakePit, part of the SportsBlogs Nation network, and also set up DiamondbacksBullpen.org, a forum for fans. He lives on the wrong side of the Scottsdale tracks, with his wife Chris, two children, and firmly restricts his gambling to slot-machines, plus the odd fan bet on his teams. It’s for the best, really… ]
- from http://azsportshub.com
