Official AGM ALCS Game 6 Preview: Indians at Red Sox
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by Tylersalt, AGM Boston Red Sox Beat Writer
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (Cleveland leads ALCS, 3-2)
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Overview
For my first article on the official AGM Red Sox beat, I take on what could be the final game of the Red Sox season, Game 6 of the ALCS. Boston has already staved off elimination once in this series while riding the golden arm of Josh Beckett, and now it's up to Curt Schilling, loudmouth, blowhard, and one of the best dang postseason pitchers in the history of baseball. Schilling goes up against Indians' co-ace Fausto Carmona, who has pitched a whole lot better than his rotation partner C.C. Sabathia so far in this series. Neither of these pitchers made it through 5 innings in Game 2:
- Schilling: 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 K, 2 HR
- Carmona: 4+ IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 5 K, 5 BB
The most troubling stat for Carmona is clearly the 1:1 K/BB ratio he posted in his last start against Boston. Boston sees more pitches per at-bat than almost any other team in the league, and you are going to have to be very lucky to beat them when you're putting them on base for free. Cleveland pitchers have walked 3 Boston hitters with the bases loaded this series, tying a postseason series record. For Carmona, the key is definitely going to be getting ahead of hitters and maintaining his control.
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For Schilling, walks are never a problem. He walked fewer than one batter per start this season (24 starts, 23 walks), while striking out 101. He has a career 4.38 K/BB ratio, which is out-of-this-world good. Schilling's key is going to have to be hitting his spots with his fastball effectively, and keeping his split-finger and changeup out of the strike zone. Schilling is not going to overpower hitters, so to be successful he's going to have to get hitters to chase the splitter and changeup low and induce a lot of ground balls. His velocity is down, so if his pitches are up they're going to end up in the Fenway Park bleachers, which is a recipe for disaster.
The good news for the Red Sox is that the lineup seems to have broken out of the funk they found themselves in in games 2, 3, and 4. Posting 7 runs against Sabathia and a very good Cleveland bullpen was very impressive, and they're heading back to the tiny hitter's park they call home in Boston. If the Red Sox can continue to be patient at the plate, take a lot of pitches, draw walks, and lay off Fausto Carmona's sinker tonight, they could be in very good shape to send this to a final game.
Key Players
Boston: the 6-9 hitters (J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Julio Lugo)
The bottom of the lineup so far this series has been barely even present so far for Boston, with the last four hitters a combined 9-47 (.191) in their three losses. In games 1 and 5, they went a combined 8-33 (.242), a 50-point difference in batting average. The Red Sox have hit into 11 double plays this series -- six by Lugo (4), Crisp (1), and Varitek (1). David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are doing a pretty great job of putting this team on their back so far, but they need some help from the people below them in the order if the Sox are going to come back and win this series.
Quick note: Sox manager Tito Francona has announced that rookie Jacoby Ellsbury will replace regular center fielder Coco Crisp in the lineup for tonight's game, batting 8th. Many fans have called for Ellsbury's presence in the lineup, given his success at the plate so far this season and Crisp's relative ineptitude at bat. Crisp is most likely a better defender, but Ellsbury has very good range, being what some Red Sox insiders have called "the fastest player in Red Sox history."
Cleveland: Travis Hafner
Hafner is 4-9 in his career against Curt Schilling, and the Indians need him to come through for them if they're going to close out this series. Last night Hafner was 0-4 with two strikeouts, and is hitting only .158 for the series. His production has been down all season (he hit about half as many home runs this year as he did in 2006), and the Indians have done just fine without him being a monster threat, but against a big game pitcher like Schilling they're going to need all the help they can get.
