Oden = Duncan?
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by user Willf123
Since the 1985-86 draft lottery in which the New York Knicks picked Patrick Ewing just one team the 2003-04 Pistons has won an NBA championship without having a player who was picked in the top 2 of the NBA Lottery. (I’m including the titles won by the Rockets with Olajuwon who was actually picked first a year before, Isiah Thomas who was picked 2 nd in 1981, Magic the 1 st pick in 1979, and Jordan the 3 rd pick in 84, but you get the point). If the Celtics or Grizz fall to the 3 rd pick or worse in the draft the odds are not good that they will win an NBA championship for the foreseeable future. Since Jordan’s last title in 97-98 teams with either Shaq or Duncan have won 7 of the past 8 titles. Only by fortunate circumstances were the Spurs able to get Duncan. They had lost David Robinson for the season the year before and limped to a 20-62 record the 3 rd worst in the league behind coincidentally the Grizz and the Celts and leapfrogged them to the 1 st pick. They lost (tanked) 10 of their last 12 games that year including the last 7 in a row. Unlike the NFL the NBA in an attempt to curb tanking has developed this lottery system. Unfortunately the beneficiaries have not been the worst teams but teams that through injuries or “late season slumps.”
With that said I would like to analyze what impact Greg Oden could have in his rookie season in the NBA. Oden is often compared to Duncan or David Robinson because of his demeanor and defensive prowess. I analyzed all of the centers who were 1 st round picks in the last 50 or so years and came up with a list of comparables. I gathered stats from Jazzy J’s College Basketball website for these players at age 19 for comparison. Here is the list comparing Pts, Reb, Blk per game.
Name Pts Reb Blk
Greg Oden 15.7 9.6 3.3
Tim Duncan 19.1 12.3 3.75
Dw.Howard 12 10 1.7 NBA
M. Camby 10.2 6.4 3.6
A.Mourning 16.5 8.5 2.2
Shaq 24.1 14 5.2
D. Robinson 23.6 11.6 4
B. Daugherty 17.3 9.7 1.25
P. Ewing 12.7 7.5 3.2
Olajuwon 8.3 6.2 2.5
R. Sampson 14.9 11.2 4.6
M. Malone 18.8 14.6 1.5 ABA
Looking at the list the most comparable player is not Duncan or Robinson it is Alonzo Mourning who has been a 7-time All-Star. Oden though is taller and a better shot blocker, but has a less developed offensive game than most on this list. This list indicates that Oden may be somewhere between the Mourning/Ewing level and the Tim Duncan level, not too shabby. But how many games improvement does that translate into for the team who gets him? Analyzing the same players and comparing their teams record in their rookie seasons to the year before we get this list:
Tim Duncan +36
Dw.Howard +15
M. Camby +9
A.Mourning +13
Shaq +20
D. Robinson +35
B. Daugherty +2
P. Ewing -1
Olajuwon +19
R. Sampson +15
M. Malone -13
Its an average of almost 14 games although the numbers are squed with Robinson returning from injury in Duncan’s rookie year. Obviously there are also many other factors in a team improving from year to year, injuries etc. But, it should be noted that in almost every case above the teams improved significantly. In the case of the Celtics a 10-15 game improvement would place them at or near the 8 th playoff spot in the East.
While I think Oden will be much better, players like Andrew Bogut picked 1st two years ago have struggled in their adjustment to the NBA. I think at this point that comparing Oden to Duncan is premature.
