Not This Time or It Happens Again?
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by user Harold Friend LouGehrig
The last time Joe Torre managed a New York baseball team and the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by as many as 10 1/2 games was 1978. The curveball is that Torre managed the New York METS. On July 10, 1978, the Yankees were third, 11 1/2 games out of first and fading fast. At the end of play on Saturday, May 19, 2007, the Yankees were 18-23, which placed them in fourth place. Some fans think that the 2007 Yankees are not yet finished for the season. How foolish. Or are they?
Let us look at the 18-23 won-lost record, which has historical significance in the annals of New York baseball. Long, long ago, a New York baseball team had an 18-23 record and went on to win the World Series. That team was the New York Mets. On May 27, 1969, New Jersey's Al Santorini, pitching for the expansion San Diego Padres, bested Jim McAndrew and the Mets, 3-2, leaving the Mets in fourth place with an 18-23 record, putting them 9 full games behind the National League Eastern Division leading Chicago Cubs. The 18-23 Mets went on to win their next eleven games to improve to 29-23 and they hung in the race, but on August 13 they dropped a twin bill to the Astros, dropping them 9 1/2 games behind Chicago. The Mets then got hot as a team can get, they got as fortunate as a team can get, the Cubs reverted to their history, and the Mets won the Eastern Division title by 8 games.
The 1969 Mets did not hit much or score many runs. They batted .242, scored 632 runs or fewer than 4 runs a game, and hit only 109 home runs. But the 1969 New York Mets are a prime example of the fact that pitching wins championships. Tom Seaver started 35 games, completed 18 of them, pitched 273 1/3 innings and compiled a 25-7 record. Jerry Koosman started 32 games, completed 16, hurled 241 innings, won 17 and lost 9. The Mets' third starter, Gary Gentry, started 35 games, completed only 6, but he pitched 233 2/3 innings, winning 13 and losing 12. Now, in 1969, teams did have relief pitchers, but relief pitchers were used to pick up starters who faltered due to ineffectiveness, not to replace starters who had thrown many pitches. Tug McGraw led the Mets' pen, winning 9, losing 3, and pitching to a 2.24 ERA over 100 1/3 innings. Ron Taylor was 9-4 in relief, and Cal Koonce went 6-3. The team ERA was 2.99.
Okay, you say, in 1969 it was a different game, it was a different league, it was a different team, and you are correct, so let's turn to 1978 Yankees, the team that overcame a 14 game Red Sox lead to win American League Eastern Division title, the team many of today's fans refer to when trying to convince themselves that the 2007 Yankees are far from dead. On July 17, the 1978 Yankees were 47-42 and in fourth place, 14 games behind the Boston Red Sox, but exactly who were these 1978 Yankees? Well, at second base was the 1976 and 1977 American League All-Star second baseman, Willie Randolph, who still is working in New York. At first base was 1976 pennant winning hero Chris Chambliss, the third baseman was Graig Nettles, second only to Cletis LeRoy Boyer as the greatest defensive third sacker in Yankees' history, and at shortstop was Bucky Dent, who would acquire an interesting nickname from Boston fans. The Yankees' outfield consisted of Lou Piniella and/or Roy White in left field, Mickey Rivers in centerfield, and Reggie Jackson in right field. The catcher was Thurman Munson. It was a good offensive team, scoring 735 runs or 4.51 runs a game, hitting 125 home runs, and batting .267, but it pales when compared to the 2007 Yankees' offense, which averages 5.42 runs a game. Yes, the 2007 Yankees score almost one run more each game than did the 1978 World Champions. The 2007 team has hit 49 home runs in 43 games, which projects to 185 home runs for the season. Ah, but hitting does not win championships. Pitching wins championships.
Baseball's best pitcher in 1978 is still on the Yankees, but sadly he only goes to the mound to try to help the pitcher, not to throw the baseball. In 1978, 5'11" Ron Guidry, who weighed all of 162 pounds, started 35 games, completed 16, pitched 273 2/3 innings, won 25, lost 3, and in the American League, WITH THE DH, had a 1.74 ERA. Have today's batters become so much better that any ERA under 4.00 is considered good and only ONE American League pitcher, the great Johann Santana, had an ERA under 3.00 in 2006? Bet Bud Selig knows why.
Besides 25 game winner Ron Guidry, the 1978 Yankees had 20 game winner Ed Figueroa, who like Guidry, started 35 games but completed "only" 12, hurling 253 innings, winning 20, losing 9, and pitching to a 2.99 ERA. After Guidry and Figueroa there were problems. Catfish Hunter had a poor first half of the season but finished strong and it is claimed that without his strong finish, the Yankees would never have caught the Red Sox. Rich Gossage pitched 134 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, appearing in 63 games, winning 10 and losing 11. Gossage saved 27 games, finished 55, and had a 2.01 ERA. Sparky Lyle had a season that was only considered decent in 1978 but one which would earn a pitcher millions of dollars today. Lyle appeared in 59 games, all in relief, pitching 111 2/3 innings. Sparky, who lost his ranking as the Yankees' top relief pitcher when Gossage arrived, won 9, lost only 3, saved 9, and had a 3.47 ERA. Gossage (134 1/3) and Lyle (111 1/3) pitched 246 inning out of the bullpen. In addition, Ken Clay appeared in 22 games out of the bullpen, Dick Tidrow and Rawley Eastwick each made 6 relief appearances, and part time starter Jim Beattie made 3.
The 2007 Yankees are in a much better position than were the 1978 team. There is much more time left, some injured Yankees players are returning, Roger Clemens had decided that he will sacrifice some of time to help the team, and if Josh Beckett's history of injuries continues, the Red Sox rotation will take a hit despite the imminent return of Jon Lester. It is not too difficult to conclude that the 2007 Yankees have a chance, and with the Wild Card as insurance that may be cashed in, playing baseball in October is a real possibility.
References:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/1969.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1978.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2007.shtml
