No Need For a Number Three
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by user DNL
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I'm a Mets fan. For the last six weeks, with apologies to Alay Soler, that means my team has had two top-tier ("ace") pitchers and three bums. Sure, some of the bums were once good (El Duque and Trax), but the point still holds. One could even expand the time frame to include the Bannister-Maine days and expand the term "bums" to include prospects.
Mets message boards and blogs are rife with people waiting with baited breath for the day that the Metropolitans have a reliable #3. Indeed, I myself argued that the Mets were doing a bad job of locating this engimatic starter. But in retrospect, I'm wrong.
In fact, I don't think there are "#3" starters. Or, more accurately, there aren't very many, and even those guys don't matter too much, especially for the Mets.
Let's define the three terms we know. An ace/stopper/#1 or whatever is the guy who, when he's on the mound, gives you a great chance at winning. The offense doesn't have to do much, because the other team isn't getting much anyway. The Brandon Webb/Pedro Martinez matchup was a perfect example. Going into the game, everyone knew that we'd have a low scoring affair. You could have given either team the Royals offense or that of the 1927 New York Yankees; it probably didn't matter much. That's an ace.
Then there's a back-of-the-rotation guy. He's going to come in with an ERA in the high 4's and a WHIP approaching 1.7. If he's on, he'll give you seven innings with two runs scored, mostly due to some good luck. If he's off, he'll give you four innings of six runs, mostly due to some bad luck. Basically, he's a .500 pitcher on a team with average offense.
Finally, we have guys who just can't get the job done. If you're lucky, you get 5 1/3 IP and only 3 runs scored. These guys are called "stopgaps," "fill-ins," "emergency starters," and "Baltimore Orioles."
There's very little room left for us to define the middle-level starter. I'm going to postulate two requirements:
- Eats innings. That is, he averages at least 6 IP/start.
- Keeps his team in the game with regularity. So, if it's 6 IP, I'm saying under 3 runs -- or an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.50 range. (Anyone outside that range is either ace-material or back-of-rotation material.)
And, because he's no good if injured, I'm going to mandate at least 8 starts thus far this year. As of this writing, there are 121 pitchers who have had at least 8 starts.
While there are clear problems with this methodolgy, it should give us a decent snapshot as to how many "true" #3s there are out there. So, to the actual stats.
Of those 121 qualifying pitchers, the following players are in the ERA range (those striken average less than 6 IP/start):
- Mark Hendrickson (8 starts, 52 IP, 3.98 ERA)
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Mike Maroth (9 starts, 48 IP, 3.56 ERA) -
Josh Fogg (10 starts, 56.2 IP, 4.45 ERA) - Javier Vazquez (10 starts, 65.1 IP, 3.86 ERA)
- Kelvim Escobar (10 starts, 61.1 IP, 3.96 ERA)
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John Thomson (10 starts, 54 IP as starter, 3.67 ERA as starter) - Jamey Wright (10 starts, 67 IP, 4.43 ERA)
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Paul Maholm (11 starts, 64 IP, 4.36 ERA) - Wandy Rodriguez (11 starts, 66 IP, 3.95 ERA)
- Zach Duke (11 starts, 71.2 IP, 4.27 ERA)
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Kameron Loe (11 starts, 61.2 IP, 4.48 ERA) - Chris Young (11 starts, 66.1 IP, 3.80 ERA)
- Jeff Francis (11 starts, 66.1 IP, 3.80 ERA)
- Danny Haren (11 starts, 78.0 IP, 4.04 ERA)
- Aaron Harang (11 starts, 73.0 IP, 3.70 ERA)
- Jake Peavy (11 starts, 69.1 IP, 4.15 ERA)
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Tony Armas Jr. (11 starts, 61.1 IP, 3.67 ERA) -
Ted Lilly (11 starts, 58 IP, 4.50 ERA) - Jarrod Washburn (11 starts, 71.2 IP, 3.89 ERA)
- Tim Wakefield (11 starts, 73 IP, 4.07 ERA)
- Miguel Batista (11 starts, 67.2 IP, 4.12 ERA)
- Curt Schilling (11 starts, 73.1 IP, 3.93 ERA)
- John Smoltz (11 starts, 75.1 IP, 3.58 ERA)
- Kenny Rogers (11 starts, 69.1 IP, 3.76 ERA)
- Greg Maddux (11 starts, 66.2 IP, 4.32 ERA)
- Jamie Moyer (11 starts 70.0 IP, 4.24 ERA)
- Tim Hudson (12 starts, 79.0 IP, 3.99 ERA)
Excluding the stricken players, we have about 20 guys who fit into this category. We can further eliminate a few guys, like Peavy, Smoltz, Schilling, and Hudson, who will likely fall out the bottom of the ERA range. We can also eliminate some of the younger guys (Duke, Haren) as being current #3s but with a huge, ace-level upside.
Basically, there may be a dozen players who fit the mold that we're after. In many cases, this "#3" is actually the best or second best pitcher on the team. The end result is that three or more pitchers, on any given team, are "back of the rotation" material. That is, there are few teams that have a true #3 in the third slot.
It seems, then, that those who attempt to bolster their rotation by focusing on the middle of it are in a quixotic bind. It simply cannot be reilably done. Specifically for the Mets, this quest is doubly foolish. In most cases, their de facto third starter (be it Steve Trachsel or Hernandez) will be up against a similar back of the rotation starter. The Mets will often have a better lineup and better bullpen, putting the odds significantly in their favor over the long run.
Date
Fri 06/02/06, 8:25 am EST
