News: Angels trade Cabrera for Garland
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by Kwitt11
News from ESPN.com : The Angels have acquired starting pitcher Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox; in return, Chicago gets shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Chicago will also recieve some cash in the deal. This deal was somewhat unexpected, as it had not shown up often among the many rumors that abound this time of year.
Jon Garland has thrown over 200 innings in each of the last three years with an ERA above league-average. Kenny Williams tried to deal Garland at this past year's trade deadline, but the market was somewhat tepid, despite plenty of teams with a need for starting pitching. Garland is still in his prime - 28 years old - but is due to make $12 million this year; unless the Angels lock him up to an extension, he will be a free agent after this year. Garland's K/9 this year dropped to just 4.2 this season, which is incredibly mediocre, especially for someone who isn't a groundball pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang. So it's very possible that Garland's ERA jumps some this season.
Starting pitcher did not seem to be an acute need for the Angels - their 4.23 ERA last year was fifth in the AL - compared to their need for a bat to provide some power behind Vladimir Guerrero. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar were both Cy Young candidates, Jered Weaver also posted a sub-4 ERA, and Joe Saunders pitched well when given the chance to start. Fifth starter was something of a problem area, however. Bartolo Colon missed half the season to injury, and pitched poorly when he was healthy (6.34 ERA). And Ervin Santana has tremendous stuff, but suffered terribly from agoraphobia, posting a 3.27 ERA in twelve starts at home but an 8.38 ERA (and 1-10 record) in 14 starts on the road - something not far out of line from his career splits (25-9, 3.14 at home; 10-21, 7.14 away). With Garland, the Angels should have one of the two or three best rotations in the AL, with the Red Sox and Twins also in the discussion and the Yankees a year or two away.
The White Sox can replace Garland in the rotation, especially because they are not expected to contend in a very tough AL Central next year. John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Gio Gonzalez are among the young, cost-controlled starters the White Sox will look at to fill the final rotation slots behind Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, and Jose Contreras. Trading one or more of their starters was a very good decision, given the lack of pitching on the market and Chicago's relative lack of a need for pitching.
Orlando Cabrera won the AL Gold Glove award last week, and also has one year left on his contract, worth $9 million next year. The White Sox said they hoped to re-sign Cabrera to an extension, but they'll have to follow through on that for this deal to make much sense. Cabrera did hit .301 last year, but had an OBP of just .345 and slugged just .397; in other words, it was an "empty" batting average. It was also the first time he had hit .300 in his career. Most of his value comes on the other side of the ball, where he is almost certainly one of the top fielders at the position in the league. Cabrera is 33, however, and his specific skills (defense, speed, and BA) tend to decline early as players age.
The White Sox have a very similar philosophy to the Angels, and Cabrera fits both systems well - there is a high emphasis on stealing bases and on batting average, and less emphasis than most teams on OBP/SLG. Cabrera has swiped 20 or more bags in five of the last six seasons, while posting an OPS+ better than league-average just once in his career (2003 in Montreal). His defense and other attributes make him a pretty valuable player, though; certainly much better than Chicago's current option, Juan Uribe. However, if Cabrera walks after this year, they end up getting pretty much nothing in return for a decent 27-year-old starter. Perhaps Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen think this team can contend, but they lost 90 games last year, didn't get much better in the offseason, and still don't really have an outfield in place.
I don't have any idea why the Angels wanted to get rid of Cabrera. He is probably a touch overrated - his percieved value exceeds his actual on-field value - but he fits the Angels' system perfectly, and they don't have an obvious shortstop waiting to replace him. Erick Aybar has been tabbed the Angels' SS of the future, but he hit just .237 last year in 194 big-league at-bats. Brandon Wood has been tabbed another hot prospect in the LA system, but he strikes out very often (not something the Angels seem to like), and wasn't spectacular in the PCL last year, putting up just a .338 OBP. The free-agent crop this year includes David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, and Royce Clayton, so looking for any help from there is probably a mistake. My guess is that Wood opens the season at short, but the Angels might trade for someone like Miguel Tejada, if they still think he can play short (which would put them in the minority at this point).
Overall, I don't really see how this trade made sense for either team. They both traded away somewhat valuable commodities for players they don't really need, and the White Sox especially seem to be lacking direction right now. The Angels had no real reason to trade Cabrera, and if they did, they should have tried to get a power bat of some sort in return; they might now trade away from their pitching surplus to get a great hitter (Tejada and Miguel Cabrera are the two hottest rumors), but Bill Stoneman has been reluctant to make deals the last couple years. And the White Sox dealt for a 33-year-old shortstop whose best days are likely fading and who could be a FA after this season. I don't know if they had any interest, but a much more rational option for the Sox would have been to offer Garland to the Mets, who desperately need pitching and have outfielders to give. If the Sox could have used Garland as the centerpiece of a package to land one of the Carlos Gomez/Lastings Milledge/Fernando Martinez trio - which probably was not possible - that would have been the best trade, but getting anybody young would have been preferable over this.
