National League MVP - A Debate
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Published by Steve Caimano on October 27, 2007 06:29 am under Phillies, Mets, Postseason awards, Rockies
So three baseball fans are sitting in a bar when a duck walks in. Wait, wait, wait. That’s not it at all.
Three baseball fans (Will, Denny and Steve) are sitting at a bar trying to figure out who should be the NL MVP. Here’s the conversation; minus the name calling, finger pointing and expletives.
Steve : Let’s make sure we know where we’re coming from before we pick our MVPs. What are your criteria for selection?
Will : The player’s team MUST make the playoffs.
Denny : I mostly agree. Traditionally, right or wrong, your team’s performance helps dictate who should be selected the MVP.
Steve : I guess I agree with Denny. It isn’t absolutely necessary that the player’s team make the playoffs, but making it matters. I look at it as a sliding scale. The further your team is from the playoffs the more you have to dominate the league.
Will : So we’re off to a good start. None of us can even agree on whether or not your team has to win.
Denny : How about pitchers?
Will : No pitchers. They have their own award.
Steve : Agreed 98%. It’s not going to matter this year, but if somebody goes 28-2 with a 1.05 ERA then I’m gonna have to consider him. Ok, how about “pennant race” performance.
Denny : It has to matter. Matt Holliday helped propel the Rockies to the playoffs. Jimmy Rollins pushed the Phillies past the Mets.
Will : Denny and I are on the same wavelength. The MVP award is a purely subjective undertaking and part of the equation is the number or quality of clutch performances.
Steve : I can’t believe you used the “C” word! Look, I’m one of those guys that believe that until they start awarding two or three wins for every victory in September then every game is equal. That being said I can’t ignore the fact that a guy who puts up big numbers down the stretch gets some bonus points.
Will : Anything else.
Steve and Denny (in unison): STATS!
Will : Well at least there’s one thing we can agree on. So who ya got?
Denny : Matt Holliday.
Will : Hey, me too. Steve?
Steve : I’ve got David Wright.
Will : Team didn’t make the playoffs. Automatic disqualification!
Steve : Easy there Mr. “Have to make the playoffs”. Let’s hear the case for Holliday.
Denny : He led his team in more offensive categories than the other two logical candidates, Wright and Rollins. Holliday led the Colorado Rockies in every offensive category except stolen bases and OBP (nine total). He led the LEAGUE in hits, doubles, RBI and average. Rollins led his team in four categories and the league in two. Wright led his team in five categories. In theory, if you are the most valuable player on your team, you should likely be the team leader in the most offensive statistics.
Will : What he said.
Steve : Well those are nice numbers, but why aren’t we using some stats that take into account their total offensive contribution? Look at the VORPs on these guys and then compare it to the 2nd best number on the team. Rollins wasn’t even the best offensive player on his team ( Chase Utley : 68.8 VORP, Rollins: 66.1). Holliday was great, 75.0 VORP, but Todd Helton was at 51.9. Look at the New York Mets. Wright 81.1 VORP, Carlos Beltran 51.1. Wright was the best offensive player of the three and had the biggest gap to the second best on his team.
Will : How about defense? The stats may not be as good, but it definitely counts.
Denny : Well, it’s difficult to compare defensive stats when you’re dealing with three different positions, but I looked at all three in relation to the other guys playing their positions, and I still lean toward Holliday. He was second amongst left fielders in fielding percentage, fifth in range factor and first in zone rating. Rollins was third, sixth and sixth. Wright was ninth, seventh and eighth.
Will : And, oh by the way, HIS TEAM DIDN’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.
Steve : Easy Will. We’ll get to that part. First I’d just like to point out that Fielding Runs Above Replacement solves your problem of comparing different positions because it rates everyone on the same scale against the other players at his position. Result. Rollins 34 runs, Wright 26, Holliday 25. He’s playing left field for God’s sake. How hard is that compared to third base? His “competition” is the likes of Chris Duncan and Pat Burrell.
Will : Let’s talk clutch performance.
Steve : Stop it! Performance down the stretch.
Will : Ok, performance down the stretch. Did you see what Holliday did in September when the Rockies had to win, basically, EVERY game. Slash stats 365/447/788. 12 HR and 32 RBI. The man was on-fire when his team needed him most.
Steve : I can’t argue with that. I will say that Wright was no slouch either.
Denny : His team fell apart like a cheap suit.
Steve : Yes. Yes it did. They fell apart because their pitching staff collapsed en masse. The Mets went 5-12 over their last 17 games to blow a 7 game lead and they gave up more than two runs a game more than their season average during those games. You know what David Wright was doing during those 17 games. How about getting at least one hit in every one? That’s right, he finished the year on a 17 game hit streak. His slash stats for that stretch were 397/451/575 with 7 doubles, 2 home runs and 11 RBI. David Wright can’t pitch.
Denny : Well, Holliday was still better down the stretch.
Steve : I concede the point, but Wright was better on the year as a whole especially when you consider Holliday’s home/road splits.
Will : What about the humidor?
Steve : I don’t know about the humidor, but I do know that Holliday hit 25 of his 36 home runs in Coors and his splits were 376/435/722 at home and 301/374/485 on the road.
Will : Frankly, I don’t care. Wright was easily one of the NL’s top three performers, but he will be a victim of rare circumstance because of the Mets’ historic collapse. The MVP will go to Matt Holliday.
Denny : Agree. Holliday put up the best offensive numbers amongst the three, and was more valuable offensively to his team than the other two were amongst their teams. He’s the MVP.
Steve : Clearly I’m not going to cave. I’ll put Holliday second on my ballot but Wright is going in the number one slot. Now that we’ve cleared that up what do you think of the other candidates?
Will : Well I for one don’t understand the whole Jimmy Rollins argument. Yes it’s cool that he became the fourth player in history to have 20 doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases but he wasn’t even the first guy to do it THIS YEAR. Like you said before, I think Utley is the Phillies’ MVP. The difference is that he didn’t make a brash prediction in spring training and just went about his work.
Denny : Best second baseman in the game.
Steve : Exactly.
Denny : Albert Pujols?
Steve : My man! It’s a shame that he’s raised the bar so high that a .997 OPS with 32 HR and 103 RBI is a down year.
Denny : Yep, he’s a great one but he also gets hurt by the fact that the Cardinals weren’t very good.
Will : Didn’t make the playoffs. Off with his head!
Steve : Keep that up and it’s gonna be off with YOUR head. Here’s a couple of names for you; Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera.
Will : Toiling in anonymity because their team stinks.
Denny : Exactly. Both of these guys were top 5 players in the NL this year but you’d be hard pressed to know that from the coverage they get. Cabrera’s going to get famous as the third baseman for the Yankees or the Sox two years from now. Ramirez was better than both Rollins AND Reyes but it’s like he’s playing on another planet. I don’t understand it.
Steve : Alright, I think that about covers it. Last chance to change your mind about David Wright.
Will : No chance. It’s Holliday.
Denny : Holliday.
Steve : Ok. Same time next week to argue AL Cy Young?
