National League Crystal Ball
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by user Thefeed
NL EAST 1. Braves 2. Mets 3. Phillies 4. Nationals 5. Marlins
NL CENTRAL 1. Brewers 2. Cardinals 3. Cubs 4. Astros 5. Reds 6. Pirates
NL WEST 1. Dodgers 2. Padres 3. Diamondbacks 4. Giants 5. Rockies
One day after St. Patrick’s Day on The Feed I made the above predictions for the National League. Clearly I’m a traditionalist as my belief in the Braves continuing their success and the Reds continuing their dismal play except when I play a hunch like the Brew Crew and find them to be too young in the lineup and too Sheets-less on the mound in the early going. I make no apologies, except to the Rockies who have outperformed my expectations more than any other team. But can they and the Reds keep up their unexpected success? Has the clock run out in Atlanta or can they muster a Wild Card run? My answers below:
The Mets aren’t going to lose the East division lead this season. It’s true that they need to find themselves some pitching but the lead of 12 games is too big for Philadelphia or Atlanta to really harbor any hope of catching them. Any move Omar Minaya makes will be focused on improving the team’s chances in a short postseason series while the Phillies could become sellers in a week if they don’t break sharply into the second half. The Braves won’t move Tim Hudson or John Smoltz but may make a low-key move like they’ve done so many times before.
In the Central I don’t think anyone’s going to catch the Cardinals. The chance to pass them was there for the Reds and Brewers when Albert Pujols went on the DL and then the Cardinals lost eight in a row – but just as no one passed Pujols on the home run list, no one passed the Cardinals on top of the Central. I think the Reds will fade behind the Brewers and Astros – the Brewers because their young core has gelled and the Astros because of their superior pitching. The addition of Aubrey Huff helps, but the Astros would need to seriously recalibrate their lineup to score enough to entertain notions of catching the Cards. I think Milwaukee will make a serious run at Greg Maddux (his brother Mike is the Brewer pitching coach) and the Wild Card but not the Cardinals.
I’m sticking with the Dodgers as the West champs. Nomar’s done everything they brought him to town for, Brad Penny leads an experienced rotation and the rookies Russell Martin, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp have filled holes all over the Dodger lineup to good results. Those young un’s plus the ageless Kenny Lofton and Jeff Kemp should allow the Dodgers to pass the unspectacular Padre offense. That’s good because no one is as stingy as the Padre staff but the offensive shortfall will be their Achilles heel. I have no idea what to make of the Giants who are above .500 despite being outscored overall and lacking a consistent starter other than Jason Schmidt. The Rockies are on the right track while the Diamondbacks have too many good young prospects to pass up the chance to get a few more for Miguel Batista, Shawn Green or whomever someone might want other than the excellent Brandon Webb.
Who is going to take the Wild Card, then? As I see it the contenders are in Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Diego, Cincinnati, Houston, San Francisco, Colorado and Milwaukee. That’s a lot of teams and you should probably throw Arizona in there because they sit just three games behind the current leader, the Dodgers. Each of these teams will be in divisional play for the majority of the second half and by the July 31st trade deadline a few of these teams will likely have dropped out of the race. I’d say those are San Francisco, Arizona and Philadelphia, only the last of which had any real postseason expectations when the season opened. The next group to drop out will include the very game but ultimately overmatched Reds and Rockies. That leaves a four-team sprint to the end and I picked the Brewers and Braves as divisional champions before the season started. I don’t think the Padres will have enough offense to remain a factor in the evenly matched West while the Braves should have the easiest route through rebuilding Florida and Washington (and Philly may dump players when they drop out as well). The Astros are very tough to read. They are situated in a similar spot as last year, loaded with pitching if Andy Pettitte can return to form but the shaky Brad Lidge coupled with another lackluster offense will cost them another October shot.
That leaves the past and present prides of Milwaukee to duke it out for the Wild Card. As I said above I think the Brewers may find themselves with Greg Maddux for the stretch run and it will be weird to watch the one-game playoff when Maddux faces John Smoltz with Atlanta’s epic playoff run on the line. There’s no one more fitting to end the run than the man who did so much to establish it and that’s why the Brewers are my final playoff pick.
Date
Thu 07/13/06, 11:50 am EST
