NLCS Preview --
| 5
|
by Orod412
--originally found on TheBigOz.com--
NLCS Preview –
The NLCS gets underway tomorrow night on TBS, where aside from getting bombarded with an endless barrage of FrankTV promos, the Diamondbacks and Rockies square off in an NL West showdown.
These two are no strangers to each other, as they’ve faced each other 18 times this year, with the Rockies winning 10-8.
Both teams swept their way into the NLCS on the strength of their pitching and look to continue that success if they have any hopes of moving on to the World Series.
Let’s take a closer look at how these two match-up.
Lineup The D’Backs offense is considered the worst of any of the playoff teams. Their hitters tend to swing early and often and seem to have difficulty with breaking pitches out of the strike zone. Arizona did hit well against the Cubs, notably Steven Drew, Eric Byrnes and Chris Young, but they’re going to have to be more selective at the plate during this series. [4]
If they stay patient and get some runners on, they’ll be able to run at will on Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who has been awful behind the plate, throwing out only 19 percent of base-runners. Torrealba however hit well in NLDS, so the Rockies need to keep him in the lineup.
MVP candidate Matt Holiday needs to do a better job at the plate or the D’Backs pitching will have a easy time through their order. Holliday and Todd Helton set the pace for Colorado on offense, and if they don’t get on track at the plate, this series will be over before the Rockies know what hit them. Fortunately for them, Holliday has traditionally hit well against Arizona, so his numbers should improve. Edge: Rockies
Starting Pitching The D’Backs have the option of asking ace Brandon Webb to pitch up to three times this series, as he’s starting game 1 and can be available on short rest for game 4 and possibly a game 7. While last year’s Cy Young winner has filthy stuff, the long layoff is of concern since he hasn’t pitched in over a week.
[5] After Webb, the D’Backs starting pitching quality goes way down, although lefty Doug Davis could give the Rockies some trouble, as they’re 20-24 against left handed pitching this year. Owings, who didn’t pitch in the NLDS, and Livan Hernandez round out the rotation. Livan is easily the most experienced of the bunch, although his command isn’t what it was when he helped the Marlins win the World Series in ‘97.
Colorado meanwhile starts with 17 game winner Jeff Francis, who struck out 8 Phillies in 6 innings during his first post-season start. Like the D’Backs, things get a little messy after their ace, with Josh Fogg, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Franklin Morales rounding out their staff. Colorado has never been known for their pitching, but these guys pitched extremely well during the first round. If they’re able to keep Arizona off balance and get the game into their bullpen, they would have more than done their job. Edge: D’Backs
Bullpen Arizona closer Jose Valverde has absolutely nasty stuff, recording a NL best 47 saves this year. Along with Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, and Tony Pena, the D’Backs bullpen is as good as any in the league in short situations. They can’t be heavily relied on to carry a game early however, so it’s on the starting rotation to not call on them before their time. Nevertheless, in tight situations, the front end of the pen is the best in the business.
Colorado on the other hand seems to rely on Manny Corpas too often, and although he’s been spectacular thus far, they’ll need consistency from former closer Brian Fuentes to be successful. Fuentes has been great, particularly against the Phillies, where he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings, but Colorado only needs to look at his play at the start of the year, where he was eventually replaced by Corpas, to remind them of how quickly things can change. Edge: D’Backs
Bench Colorado is getting center fielder Willy Taveras back for this series from injury, but if he runs into some trouble, the Rockies could go back to Cory Sullivan or Ryan Spilborghs to pick up the slack. The Rockies also have Jamey Carroll, who has traditionally hit very well against Arizona in his career.
The D’Backs have some pop on their bench with Tony Clark, who has hit Rockies pitching very well this year, hitting 4 homers and 13 RBI in 31 at bats against Colorado. He might spot start at first, but he’ll be way more valuable coming off the bench. Edge: Rockies
Managers Both the Rockies Clint Hurdle and the D’Backs Bob Melvin are candidates for Manager of the Year, and with the way they’ve played as of late, it’s easy to see why. Neither team was considered a real contender at the start of the year, but they’ve come together at the right time to be where they are today.
Melvin knows how to get the best out of his pitching staff, and more importantly, understands the best situations to use his bullpen in.
Hurdle is a good manager in his own right, and has to be commended on how he’s handled the Rockies seemingly out of nowhere rise to prominence. However, this is the first time since he took over the Rockies that he’s finished with a record over .500, and it has yet to be seen if he can pull the Rockies out of a tough stretch if they lose a couple of games that shake their confidence. Edge: D’Backs
Intangibles The Rockies enter NLCS play having won 17 of their last 18. They’ve been so hot that they don’t necessarily have to touch home plate to win ballgames, as evident during the NLDS. The long layoff however might play a factor, as the last thing a hot team wants to do is sit around.
The D’Backs didn’t lead the league in any statistical category this year, and have displayed a lack-luster offense for most of the season. They’ve been able to click at the right time however and have got to be feeling good about how easily they handled Philadelphia in the first round.
Morale has never been higher for these two teams, so it’s only a question of how much the layoff will hurt them. Edge: Rockies
Prediction This series will hinge on the D’Backs pitching and Colorado’s ability to score runs on the Arizona starters. The D’Backs have the ability to throw Brandon Webb out there three times, but pitching on short rest twice will take its toll, at least once. While he’s the best thing they’ve got in their rotation, their front end of the bullpen has pitched lights out ball. However, if the Rockies can find a way to score early and often on the Arizona starters, their bullpen will be forced to come in early which will hurt their effectiveness as the series goes on.
Aside from both clubs needing strong pitching, the long layoff between the NLDS and the NLCS might play a factor. When a team is hot, like the Rockies, they don’t want to be sitting around and waiting. Luckily for them, Arizona has had to sit as well. Helton and Holliday should hit better than they did in the first round, and add to an already potent offense. If their starters pitch deep into the game and their bullpen finds some consistency, they’ll be playing in their first Fall Classic. Winner: Rockies in 6
