NHL Trophy Finalists & Predictions

While the Stanley Cup playoffs rage on every night, the drama of the 2006-07 season won't be over when the Cup is hoisted in early June -- the NHL announced the finalists for its annual awards today, hardware to be handed out on Thursday, June 14 in Toronto.

Goaltenders Martin Brodeur of the New Jersey Devils & Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks and center Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins were selected as finalists for the Hart Trophy as League MVP, and there are seven other individual trophies to be awarded as well. In preparation for the awards, I thought I'd do a little analysis/soothsaying on not only who will bring home the hardware come June, but also who should -- using a statistical system called GVT (Goals Versus Threshold, basically VORP for hockey) developed by Thomas Awad. By the way, if you're interested in GVT, you should join the Hockey Analysis Group at Yahoo!, where you can download a database of every player's stats since 1943-44 -- very cool stuff. Anyway, here are the nominees, as well as who will -- and who should -- take home the hardware in each category...

Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP - writers vote)/Lester B. Pearson Award (MVP - players vote)

Nominees:

Martin Brodeur, Devils
Sidney Crosby, Penguins
Roberto Luongo, Canucks

Who should win: Luongo. According to GVT, here are the 10 most valuable players in the NHL for 2006-07:

Rank	Name		Team(s)			P	GVT
1	Roberto Luongo	Vancouver Canucks	G	36.5
2	Martin Brodeur	New Jersey Devils	G	30.8
3	Sidney Crosby	Pittsburgh Penguins	F	28.9
4	M. Kiprusoff	Calgary Flames		G	28.6
5	V. Lecavalier	Tampa Bay Lightning	F	28.2
6	Joe Thornton	San Jose Sharks		F	26.1
7	Rick DiPietro	New York Islanders	G	26.0
8	H. Lundqvist	New York Rangers	G	25.2
9	M. St. Louis	Tampa Bay Lightning	F	24.8
10	Teemu Selanne	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	F	24.7

Luongo gets the edge for MVP because he posted basically an equal SV% to Brodeur (.921 vs. .922) while facing more shots per minute, behind a worse defensive corps than New Jersey's. Sid the Kid's 120 points were nice, but he wasn't a good enough two-way player to justify his selection over either of the brilliant goalies.

Who will win: Brodeur. And I have no problem with that, because Marty's season was basically equal to Luongo's in terms of awesomeness. He set new benchmarks for wins (48) and minutes (4697), and was flat-out great all year. Luongo gets credit under GVT for playing behind a more nondescript D, but Brodeur was just as good. Give him the Hart!

James Norris Memorial Trophy (Best Defenseman)

Nominees:

Who should win: Lidstrom. Nobody controls the game like this guy, he's almost never out of position on D, the quarterbacks the power play, he provides playmaking (49 assists was 3rd among D-men), he led all defensemen in +/- (along with Tom Preissing of Ottawa), etc. Bottom line: Lidstrom rocks. With that in mind, here are the leading blueliners by GVT:

	Name			Team(s)			P	Off	Def	GVT
1	Nicklas Lidstrom	Detroit Red Wings	D	9.6	13.2	22.7
2	Chris Pronger		Anaheim Mighty Ducks	D	11.1	10.1	21.3
3	Dan Boyle		Tampa Bay Lightning	D	10.8	9.2	20.0
4	Lubomir Visnovsky	Los Angeles Kings	D	10.2	8.5	18.7
5	Scott Niedermayer	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	D	12.1	5.5	17.6
6	Philippe Boucher	Dallas Stars		D	9.6	7.0	16.6
7	Ryan Whitney		Pittsburgh Penguins	D	10.9	5.7	16.5
8	Brian Rafalski		New Jersey Devils	D	6.9	9.2	16.2
9	Sergei Zubov		Dallas Stars		D	7.9	7.7	15.6
10	Sami Salo		Vancouver Canucks	D	6.4	8.7	15.1

Niedermayer and Pronger were awesome, but Lidstrom had one of the best years of his career -- a career that ranks him among a handful of the best defensemen of all time (along with Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Larry Robinson, Paul Coffey, Denis Potvin, Al MacInnis, and maybe a few others). He definitely deserves his second straight -- and 5th overall -- Norris nod.

Who will win: Lidstrom. Voters love this guy because he never shirks his defensive responsibilities, and he never backs down in big games. He's also the consummate leader, a fitting heir to Steve Yzerman's "C". In other words, this is one player whose hype is 100% deserved.

Vezina Trophy (Best Goaltender)

Nominees:

Who should win: Luongo. For the same reasons he should win the Hart -- he was just as effective as Brodeur at stopping flying vulcanized rubber, despite playing behind a Vancouver defense that was significantly worse than that of New Jersey. Here are the goaltending leaders in GVT:

	Name		Team(s)			P	GVT
1	Roberto Luongo	Vancouver Canucks	G	36.5
2	Martin Brodeur	New Jersey Devils	G	30.8
3	M. Kiprusoff	Calgary Flames		G	28.6
4	Rick DiPietro	New York Islanders	G	26.0
5	H. Lundqvist	New York Rangers	G	25.2
6	Ray Emery	Ottawa Senators		G	22.4
7	Chris Mason	Nashville Predators	G	22.4
8	N. Backstrom*	Minnesota Wild		G	22.2
9	J-S Giguere	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	G	21.6
10	Tomas Vokoun	Nashville Predators	G	18.9

By the way, there are four finalists for this award because of a third-place tie in balloting. This is the first time in the history of the NHL Awards Show that a trophy has had four finalists.

Who will win: Brodeur... for the same reasons he will win the Hart -- 48 wins, a 2.18 GAA, and 13 shutouts are awfully hard to argue with. It's fitting that this category would be the first to have four nominees, because there were a number of great goaltending performances this season that otherwise might have been overlooked. And, to think, the "New NHL" was supposed to reduce the goalie's importance...

Calder Memorial Trophy (Rookie of the Year)

Nominees:

Evgeni Malkin, Penguins
Jordan Staal, Penguins
Paul Stastny, Avalanche

Who should win: Malkin. Well, technically, Niklas Backstrom should win, but he wasn't eligible (at 29, he's too old -- you have to be under 27 at the start of the season to win the Calder). So here are the rookie GVT leaders:

Rank	Name		Team(s)			P	G/Off	Def	GVT
1	N. Backstrom*	Minnesota Wild		G	21.6	0.6	22.2
2	Evgeni Malkin*	Pittsburgh Penguins	F	13.5	2.5	16.0
3	Paul Stastny*	Colorado Avalanche	F	12.0	3.1	15.1
4	Matt Carle*	San Jose Sharks		D	6.7	6.1	12.8
5	Jordan Staal*	Pittsburgh Penguins	F	6.8	3.8	10.6

Malkin was a one-way wonder, but his offense was truly outstanding (he was the 19th-best offensive player in the NHL by offensive GVT). Stastny really came on late in the season and almost beat out Malkin; he'll be one to watch for the Avalanche as they make the painful transition out of the Joe Sakic era over the next few seasons. Staal's two-way play was strong for a rookie, but 42 points (especially vs. Malkin's 85) isn't enough pop to justify a Calder win.

Who will win: Malkin. Very few rookies are legit stars from the get-go, and Malkin was one. Along with Crosby, he helped Pittsburgh return to the playoffs, and he instantly makes them one of the teams to watch in the next few years.

Frank J. Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward)

Nominees:

Rod Brind'Amour, Hurricanes
Samuel Pahlsson, Ducks
Jay Pandolfo, Devils

Who should win: Pandolfo. Brind'Amour's defensive GVT is the best among the finalists, but that may be because of his ice time as much as anything. Besides, for defense, GVT only factors in "relative +/-", which compares a player's plus/minus to his team's total +/-. But, using the advanced plus/minus stats from Gabriel Desjardins' outstanding site Behindthenet.ca, we can do one better -- we can compare how well the player's team does defensively when he's on the ice vs. off, looking at even-strength as well as penalty-killing performance. At ES, the 'Canes were basically the same defensively per 60 minutes (-0.07) with Brind'Amour on vs. off (after adjusting for teammates/opponents), and he saved 0.51 G/60 while on the penalty kill (also adjusted for the quality of his opponents and teammates). Anaheim's D was 0.18 adjusted G/60 better at ES with Pahlsson on the ice, but they were 0.31 adjusted G/60 worse on the penalty kill with Pahlsson on the ice, which ought to diminish his Selke chances somewhat. Meanwhile, Pandolfo made NJ's ES D better by a whopping 0.63 adjusted G/60 while on the ice, and although his shorthanded rating (-1.65) was bad even after adjusting for teammates and opponents, New Jersey's penalty kill was so good despite so few SH goals that Pandolfo's shorthanded stat is distorted by his team's style of play. So his even strength defensive +/- is more telling -- despite facing the toughest opponents in the NHL, Pandolfo shut them down all season, and (perhaps most impressive of all) took virtually no penalties in the process. Hands down, he deserves the Selke.

2006-07 Best Defensive Forwards, Behindthenet stats (min. 1000 tot. min, 60 SH min):

Rank	Player		Pos	Tm	GP	ESGSv	SHGSvd	GSv/60	Defense
1	JOHNSON		F	MTL	80	1.01	1.52	1.11	21.00
2	DONOVAN		F	BOS	76	0.64	2.10	0.88	14.76
3	GAGNE		F	PHI	76	0.83	-0.50	0.63	12.41
4	ALFREDSSON	F	OTT	77	0.45	1.32	0.57	11.41
5	BETTS		F	NYR	82	0.75	0.16	0.61	10.80
6	PLEKANEC	F	MTL	81	0.77	-0.44	0.58	10.47
7	ROLSTON		F	MIN	78	0.53	0.55	0.53	10.34
8	STEEN		F	TOR	82	0.61	0.17	0.54	10.06
9	OLESZ		F	FLA	75	0.61	0.48	0.58	10.00
10	STAAL		F	PIT	81	0.72	0.11	0.58	9.83
11	MOEN		F	ANA	82	0.21	1.42	0.44	8.57
12	BONK		F	MTL	74	0.50	0.26	0.45	8.18
13	HUSELIUS	F	CGY	81	0.52	-0.91	0.44	7.45
14	LEGWAND		F	NSH	78	0.00	2.02	0.34	6.79
15	GORDON		F	WSH	71	1.06	-1.60	0.38	6.76
...
18	PANDOLFO	F	N.J	82	0.63	-1.65	0.24	5.80
32	PAHLSSON	F	ANA	82	0.18	-0.31	0.05	1.08
34	BRINDAMOUR	F	CAR	78	-0.07	0.51	0.04	1.00

Who will win: Brind'Amour. Sadly, this award usually goes (inexplicably, I might add) to the better offensive player among the nominees. To wit: Pandolfo only had 27 points and 1 SHG, and was -5 on a checking line; Brind'Amour had 82 and 2, and was +7 on a scoring line -- who do you think the voters would prefer? Plus, being the incumbent, Brind'Amour has another advantage over Pandolfo.

Jack Adams Award (Best Coach)

Nominees:

Lindy Ruff, Sabres
Michel Therrien, Penguins
Alain Vigneault, Canucks

I don't have any fancy formulas for this one, but I think Therrien deserves the nod here for overseeing the development of Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and the rest of Penguins into a playoff team. Besides, the other guys aren't really that deserving: the Sabres were already an up-and-coming team last year, and Vignault's best move was simply penciling Roberto Luongo into the lineup every night.

Lady Byng Memorial Trophy (Sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct)

Nominees:

Pavel Datsyuk, Red Wings
Joe Sakic, Avalanche
Martin St. Louis, Lightning

For this award, I like to look at how many minutes a player spends on the ice for every minute they spend stewing in the sin bin. Here are the 2006-07 leaders (minimum 300 minutes played):

Rk	P  	Player  	Tm  	GP  	PIM  	TOI	Min/PIM
1	C 	KYLE WELLWOOD 	TOR 	48	0	798.4	INF!
2	C 	TOBY PETERSEN 	EDM 	64	4	874.7	218.67
3	L 	JAY PANDOLFO 	NJD 	82	8	1525.2	190.65
4	R 	BILL THOMAS 	PHX 	24	2	323.6	161.80
5	D 	PAUL MARTIN 	NJD 	82	18	2067.8	114.88
6	D 	M. VLASIC 	SJS 	81	18	1796.9	99.83
7	C 	JOHN MADDEN 	NJD 	74	14	1396.1	99.72
8	D 	TOMAS KABERLE 	TOR 	74	20	1914.1	95.71
9	C 	P. BOUCHARD 	MIN 	82	14	1310.6	93.62
10	L 	M. TJARNQVIST 	PHX 	44	6	551.5	91.91
...
21	C  	PAVEL DATSYUK  	DET  	79	20	1576.1	78.80
24	R 	M. ST. LOUIS 	TBL 	82	28	1980.3	70.73
160	C  	JOE SAKIC  	COL  	82	46	1655.0	35.98

It's a close call between Datsyuk and St. Louis, but I think that by virtue of his 102 points (vs. Datsyuk's 87), St. Louis combined "gentlemanly conduct with performance in play" best of all.

Well, I hope you enjoyed this rundown of the NHL's awards nominees. Check back next week for the continuation of my NHL Playoff Challenge series with Alex Holowczak, and by all means, check back in June to see how many awards I called correctly. Now, it's back to watch the Ducks-Canucks game...

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KelsdadAll-Star

942 days ago

Score 1

Nice job, Davis. I'm taking Luongo for the goalie awards because Vancouver kind of overachieved this year, and, as you said, he played behind a worse defense.

Paul Stastny came on strong at the end of the year and Staal kind of disappeared, and, like baseball, he who finishes best usually ends up best. Other than that, I agree across the board.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if you were right across the board, however. Some of these are too close to call.

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