NFL Preview and Power Rankings
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Ok, I wrote this awhile back, but since I trashed Peter King I think it's only fair that you guys get to trash me. So get ready to rip me to pieces.
The 2007-2008 pre-training camp, pre-pre-season power rankings/team previews. Why? Because it’s fun to speculate…
This time of year, hope springs eternal. With training camp just about a month and a half away, the sky’s the limit as far as optimistically die hard fans are concerned. It’s possible, hypothetically, that any team can end up in the Super Bowl this year in my backyard here in Arizona. And why not? There have been no season ending injuries yet. No bad calls that have left anyone slighted. No unimaginative play calling or coaching that lacks common sense. No horribly run two minute drills or wasted timeouts in the beginning of the third quarter. No calls for Matt Millen’s head. And most importantly (at least for my hopes this season) not a single fumbled snap on a gimme field goal. So aside from the turmoil swirling in Miami, with Trent Green arriving and Culpepper apparently on his way out, and that draft pick that made the entire country scratch it’s head simultaneously, (much like how everyone yelled “the cable went out ” across America during the Sopranos series Finale) things are looking up. Oh, unless you’re following Lance Briggs’s contract dispute and Tank Johnson’s guns in Chicago or the Cincinnati Bengals being, well, the Cincinnati Bengals. Or Michael Vick and the dog fighting scandal that is going to be hanging over the Falcons’ entire season. Or watching Roger Goodell throw down with Chris Henry and Pacman Jones, who just today, actually dropped his appeal of the one year suspension handed him. Even the returning Super Bowl champion Colts have key losses on the defensive end to cope with. Nothing’s ever settled in the ever tumultuous NFL, not until it’s all said and done, but there’s a whole lot of fun to be found in trying to settle it in off-season power rankings. I hope this sparks some debate, sound off below if you feel like you need to, and in the meantime, enjoy.
1. San Diego Chargers—Call me crazy if you want. I get that I’m in the minority in thinking that Norv Turner is an upgrade over Marty Schottenheimer, but I just can’t shake the feeling that Phillip Rivers is going to have another great season, and maybe even better under Turner. I imagine them finding a lot of new ways to get Antonio Gates involved, which is where I felt their only weakness last year was (underutilizing him). LT is probably not going score 31 touchdowns this year and throw for two more, but he did avoid the Madden curse and I see no reason for him to cool off now. Merriman’s not going to get suspended again and they resigned two key players in Dielman and Shaun Phillips. The biggest personnel loss is going to be Wade Phillips who headed home to Dallas. I’m a tad worried about them keeping up the same torrid pace as last year’s defense, but it should still produce some of the highest sack totals in the league. The toughest part of their schedule is going to be their opening five games and will need to come out of there with a 4-1 record to keep home field hopes alive, and I think they will.
2. New England Patriots—Why wouldn’t they sit atop all of this? Because I think that when the Chargers and Patriots meet in week two in Foxboro on Sunday Night Football, they’re going to get quite the wake up call. Having said that, these guys were serious contenders last year, and only helped their cause by adding what Tom Brady’s always wanted…lots and lots of wide receivers. Good ones too. In case you missed it, they picked up Randy Moss (for a 4th round pick…), Donte’ Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Kelley Washington. They picked up so many receivers that veteran fan favorite Troy Brown, who is 36, might not even make the team this year. I’m not sold on their running game right now, as Maroney has a bum shoulder and Corey Dillon’s no longer with the team, so that’s definitely a position to keep an eye on as training camp and pre-season rolls around. Their linebacking corps got a nice boost with the addition of Adalius Thomas, who could be used in so many different ways and positions it makes my head hurt to think of how Belichick will get him involved in their game plan. However, one of the top corners in the league Asante Samuel was franchise tagged and has not yet signed the tender. He says he plans on not showing up until week 10 of the regular season, which would definitely be a huge hit for a secondary that revolves almost entirely around him. The odds-makers have them at 2-1 to win their fourth Super Bowl this decade, but I’m not going to buy into it completely until I see the chemistry in actual games. Week 2 should be a nice barometer as to what we’ll see from them this year.
3. Indianapolis Colts—Defending Super Bowl Champions not starting the season at the top? Exactly. Problem is, I don’t trust this defense as far as I can throw them right now. After losing starting cornerbacks Nick Harper and Jason David, as well as linebacker Cato June, the Super Bowl raiding has begun. This happens to every defending champ, and these Colts are no different. One thing working in their favor is Tony Dungy’s ability to get the most out of his defenses year in and year out in that Tampa 2 scheme. They’re going to be relying heavily on a healthy Bob Sanders back at safety to help with the transition of the young corners they will be relying on. Dominic Rhodes is gone as well, which raises the question of whether or not Joseph Addai can be a full time running back in the NFL. Anthony Gonzales from Ohio State is going to be an interesting rookie; I’d say a sleeper pick for offensive rookie of the year. Peyton Manning’s under the impression that Gonzales can catch 60+ balls this season, and I don’t doubt him. Once again, their offense will be playing at an extremely high level while their defense plays catch up. Can’t see them beating either the Chargers or the Patriots right now, but that’s why they play the games, right?
4. New Orleans Saints—The top three teams in the AFC are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. After that, the Saints, while they won’t take anybody by surprise this year, should have one of the scariest and most versatile offensive attack in the league. At this point we all know what to expect out of Drew Brees, but the interesting thing to watch about the Saints this year is going to be how they respond to the loss of Joe Horn. While he’s certainly well past his prime, he was a vocal leader of this team they’ll now have to do without. They’ll now be relying on the likes of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and rookie Robert Meachem (who entered camp overweight and has already had surgery on his knee, but will “definitely” be available when training camp starts. The running back tandem of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush should prove even more potent this year, with both having a year of experience working with head coach Sean Payton. He will also have a new pass catching TE to work with in Eric Johnson, something he didn’t have at his disposal last year. They also had some nice defensive additions with Brian Simmons (WLB from Cincinnati) and FS Kevin Kaesviharn. My biggest concern though is their defense, which I felt just wasn’t exposed as the weakness it really was last year. They should win the NFC South and make noise once again in the playoffs, but are they Super Bowl bound?
5. Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens finished with a nice 13-3 mark last year, but I expect that total to fall to around 11 this year (and that’s assuming McNair stays healthy). I think they’re going to miss Adalius Thomas more then they think that they will, but if Ray Lewis is as healthy as he says he is, he should make up for that loss. They lost a lot on the offensive line, including Pashos and Mulitalo. Not only that, but Ovie Mughelli is now the highest paid fullback in NFL history, but Arthur Blank and the Falcons now write his checks. With Willis McGahee coming over in a trade with Buffalo to replace Jamal Lewis they should be able to use more one back sets successfully. This team’s success this year is going to ride solely on McNair’s shoulders. As long as he’s healthy and continues to manage the game like he does, they’re surefire contenders again in the AFC, but if he struggles or gets injured, the Troy Smith era could begin…and that’s probably not a good thing.
6. Chicago Bears—These guys have so many question marks right now, with Briggs’s holdout, Thomas Jones leaving off to New York via free agency, and Tank Johnson’s suspension, I feel they could go 12-4 or 8-8 or anywhere in between. On the bright side, they do get to play in the NFC Central which should get them four wins at least. The defense should be just one of the best in the league once again and keep the heat off of Grossman, at least until he has a three turnover game. Cedric Benson needs to prove he can be the man in Chicago because he sure has done a lot of talking over the past couple years. His chance is now. Ron Rivera (the defensive coordinator) is no longer there, but should that be a big deal? Devin Hester’s making the switch to receiver; let’s hope that doesn’t tire him out for punt and kick returns late in the season. This is going to be a crucial year for the franchise, where they figure out if they’re going to be able to succeed with Grossman, or if they’re going to need to search elsewhere. Keep in mind, he will be playing for a contract next year, and these guys seem to like their money.
7. Denver Broncos—This spot is completely contingent upon Jay Cutler. If he has the breakout year everyone seems to think he’ll have, then kudos to Mike Shanahan for pulling the plug on the ever-mediocre Jake Plummer era. If not, well, I’m sure they’d rather not think about it. The offensive line will be as good as it always is, but this team is literally going to revolve around Travis Henry. If he shows he can stay healthy, he’s going to have a big time year running behind this line, and, in the meantime, take a lot of the pressure off of his young quarterback. Javon Walker’s the only real receiving threat that Cutler’s going to have, but they also nabbed Stokley from the Colts, and while he is coming off of an injury plagued season, he’s obviously a good route runner and an extremely bright player. The defense is a much more sensitive subject. Al Wilson is not going to be playing for them this year and John Lynch is even older this year. They did get Dre’ Bly to take over for Darrent Williams, who tragically passed away early in the off-season, but with a different scheme being put in place by new defensive coordinator Jim Bates, will they have too many question marks to overcome?
8. Seattle Seahawks—After last year’s injury marred season, the Seahawks still found themselves in position to advance to the NFC Championship game, but came up just short. Their offense should be back to form with Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander both back at 100%. Their receiving corps is going to be lead by Deion Branch, who typically shouldn’t be your top receiver, but with a year in the west coast offense under his belt, should have a more productive season this time around. Their defense was towards the bottom third of the league last year and lost Grant Wistrom and Ken Hamlin. They did bring in Patrick Kerney from the Falcons to replace Wistrom and brought over two experienced safeties in Brian Russell from Cleveland and Deon Grant from Jacksonville. The Seahawks decided not to resign tight end Jerramy Stevens and his lax attitude, off the field issues, and marginal production. Their unsettled offensive line is going to be their biggest question mark going into the season, as they’re still reeling from the loss of Steve Hutchinson. If the offensive line can beat the defense up and create some running room for Alexander, they should be serious contenders in the NFC.
9. Dallas Cowboys— Not going to lie here, it almost physically pained me to put them this far down on my list, but as to not appear as a “homer”, (they are my favorite team) here they are. The biggest difference in this team from last year is obviously the departure of Bill Parcells who built the core of this team from the ground up. Enter Wade Phillips, son of Bum, and the architect of San Diego’s ferocious unit, to hopefully turn the defensive unit into, well, an offensive one. The addition of Ken Hamlin and the decision to move Roy Williams to more of a linebacker role in the nickel formation, the Cowboys’ brain trust hopes that they can eliminate a lot of the big plays that killed them down the stretch. They shored up the offensive line with the Leonard Davis signing, who’s replacing the newly released Marco Rivera at right guard, which should allow a more powerful running game. Their offense should be at least on par with last year’s unit, if not more versatile and aggressive. Jason Garrett is looking to move receivers all over the field to exploit match-up issues. And for once, the only drama in town doesn’t involve T.O. who has been inexplicably quiet this off-season. This time it’s Greg Ellis, who actually has asked to be either moved out of town, or a contract extension which isn’t going to happen. Anthony Spencer, the first round draft pick, has been described as “a great linebacker” by Ellis, who has still mentored him throughout the OTA’s even though he feels slighted by Jerry Jones. If Tony Romo plays to the tune of 25 TDs and 15 INT this season and the defense gets after the quarterback a considerable amount of time, don’t be surprised when the Cowboys make some noise in the postseason.
10. Philadelphia Eagles—The Eagles will go as Donovan McNabb does. They’ll need to get Brian Westbrook involved a bit more in the running game, because sometimes Andy Reid forgets that he’s not a wide receiver, thus resulting in McNabb throwing 40 times a game and getting hurt halfway through the season. They’ll be returning pretty much the same unit this coming season. Aside from the defections of Donte’ Stallworth, Jeff Garcia, Michael Lewis, and Roderick Hood, not much has gone on in the city of brotherly love. They’ll score points, they’ll play solid defense as well. It’s just a question of keeping McNabb healthy. They will be contenders in the NFC again this year, but it’s going to be tough for them to keep their division title.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers—What can you say about these guys? They’ve got a new coach in Mike Tomlin, which has got to be kind of weird to Steeler fans who have become so accustomed to Bill Cowher prowling around. Ken Whisenhunt, the offensive coordinator, and Russ Grimm, the offensive line coach both headed west for Arizona, and one can only imagine the growing pains this team is going to go through. But, there is a but here…If Roethlisberger can protect the ball, and both he and Hines Ward stay healthy, and Fast Willie Parker doesn’t lose any steam, it’s tough to say that these guys couldn’t be in the thick of things come the end of the season. Hopefully the Alan Faneca contract situation will work itself out, because he’s going to be a key piece for them getting back into the playoffs this year.
12. Cincinnati Bengals—I like their offense with Palmer, Johnson & Johnson, and Houshmanzadeh, but seriously, how many more guys on this team can get arrested? I feel this team is its own worst enemy. Their defense suffered a big loss with Kaesviharn leaving to New Orleans. He led the team with six picks last year and also was the quarterback of the defense. They’ll need to win a lot of shootouts this year to have a shot at the AFC North, but they realistically could score enough points to catapult them back into the playoffs. Carson Palmer will need an MVP caliber season for his Bengals.
13. New York Jets—J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS I couldn’t believe my eyes last year when everyone had picked these guys to finish near the bottom of the pack, like Chad Pennington isn’t a solid quarterback who usually makes smart decisions with the ball and can manage a game. The Man-genius will have his hands full again this year trying to wrestle away the division title from the Pats. However, they did make a sound decision by adding Thomas Jones from the Bears who should compliment Leon Washington very well. They still have their explosive wide receivers in Coles and Cotchery, but need to find a third option to help the offense. They made a very good choice in Darrelle Revis, who will hopefully be able to contribute right away to shore up their secondary. I can’t see these guys topping 10 wins this season, and feel they’ll be pretty lucky to recreate what they had last season.
14. Carolina Panthers—These guys are impossible to figure out year after year. Last season, SI had them going to the Super Bowl…they didn’t even make the playoffs. They’ve got pretty much the same squad that they did last year, and that’s exactly why I can’t take them seriously as contenders. Jake Delhomme, who I still believe is one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the league, throws lame ducks routinely that are somehow grabbed by Steve Smith. Problem is, their running game is awfully inconsistent and if Smith is taken out of the game, they lack the imagination to get things going. I’m going to say they’ll miss the playoffs again this season, even with John Fox running the show.
15. San Francisco—These guys are the off-season trendy sleeper pick up to this point. With the additions of Nate Clements, Tully Banta-Cain, and Michael Lewis, they’ve upgraded one of the worst defensive units in the league immensely. Also, they should be playing primarily in the 3-4 this season, as all the personnel seems to be in place to finish the transition. They didn’t lose any key cogs to the team aside from Norv Turner. That’s what bothers me about this team. Does Alex Smith continue to progress without the coach that jumpstarted him in the right direction? He’s got the offensive line and Frank Gore to help him out. He also has Ashley Lelie jumping aboard to give them a pretty mediocre deep threat. Overall, they should be a lot better than last year, so long as they can keep the opposing team off the board better than they did last season.
16. Arizona Cardinals—Another chic pick. It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals winning when you actually live in Phoenix. However, I do like them bringing in Ken Whisenhunt to spark some imagination on offense and Russ Grimm, the new offensive line coach, so they can finally learn how to block. They had a very good drat high-lighted by the fifth pick Levi Jones, who Grimm preferred coming into the draft over Joe Thomas. They'll have a full season under Matt Leinart this year which should provide some stability for the team. If Edgerrin James can get a little bit of running room he can get the job done and free up the passing game to relieve some pressure. Problem is, they didn't add anything special in the off-season, didn't really lose anything, so mostly it's the same team from last season.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars—They've lost both Donovin Darius and Deon Grant from the safety position. Also gone is Kyle Brady, the long time Jaguars TE. They did add Tony Pashos to help with depth and the overall talent level of the offensive line. The biggest question at this point is their passing game. Dirk Koetter (recently fired from ASU) has been hired to fix their passing game. It's all on Leftwich this year, whether Jack Del Rio (who will be rocking a Reebok suit for all home games) likes it or not. They may even try to bring in Daunte Culpepper, but I'm not sure what that's going to do for them at this point. On the positive, a solid defensive team with solid running usually spells playoffs, however until they play at a consistent level and not down to lesser opponents, they will get lost in the sea that is the AFC.\
18. New York Giants—The always unimpressive Eli Manning is in his do-or-die year and needs to get things done now. This team is so testy. At the beginning of every year the entire team is best friends, but by the end of it they want to rip each other's head off and have quit on coach Tom Coughlin. Can't say they added anything spectacular in free agency, but they did get Aaron Ross (Texas) and Steve Smith (USC) through the draft so the Giants are really banking on them being difference makers now...not later. Coughlin is a lame duck this year, no more Tiki Barber, no more Luke Pettigout...they did getReuben Droughns to back up Brandon Jacobs. They also lossed Jay Feely, which isn't the biggest loss, but he was a solid kicker and will be missed.
19. Tennessee Titans—Talk about a state of turmoil. The Titans finished last season at 8-8 and expectations were high coming into this year. That is, until Pacman Jones got suspended for the off-season, Lendale White showed up at the off-season OTA's at about 260 pounds, and Vince Young landed on the Madden cover. Gone from last year are Travis Henry, Justin Gage, and Chris Brown has yet to be resigned. But as long as you have Vince Young on the field, you can win any game. He's going to have the weight of the state on his shoulders this year, but without any help, I can't see them replicating last year's success.
20. St. Louis Rams—One of the more active teems in free agency this year. They acquired Drew Bennet, Randy McMichael, and Travis Minor on offense. On defense they picked up James Hall, a quick pass rushing end and Chris Draft, a versatile linebacker. They’ve improved their depth on both sides and assuming Bulger, Jackson, and Holt stay healthy, and the defense improves against the run (finished 31st last season) I’ve really got no reason why they can’t make the playoffs in the NFC after barely missing with an 8-8 finish last year.
21. Kansas City Chiefs—With the Trent Green debacle finally settled, the quarterback position is no more settled now than it was last season. Brodie Croyle is probably going to start this season, even though Damon Huard led this team to the playoffs last year in Green’s absence. But will it really matter if Larry Johnson can pound the ball to the tune of 1700 yards and 20 touchdowns? No, it won’t. In a division with the Chargers and Broncos, and in the AFC no less, these guys will be left out of the playoffs.
22. Green Bay Packers—Once again the biggest off-season news for the Pack is Brett Favre maybe or maybe not retiring. Or was it that he was upset he didn’t get Randy Moss? (which I hear was not a legitimate possibility once the Patriots came along given that he had to restructure his deal) No, I know what it was, the signing of Frank Walker. Who? Exactly. A back-up defensive back for the New York Giants is the highlight of the Packers off-season. Didn’t do much at all, actually, so unless Brett Favre goes retro, they’ll probably be looking at a 6-10 season this year (I don’t care if they won their last four games to close out last season) and more questions about retirement the next.
23. Buffalo Bills—Rebuilding for the near future? They lost Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, Takeo Spikes, and London Fletcher-Baker just to name a few. But J.P. Losman and Lee Evans are starting to click and I’m pretty high on Marshawn Lynch right now. He’s like their new Thurman Thomas who will produce both on the ground and in the air. They will not challenge for a playoff spot this year, but they’re starting to piece together a nice young core to win with in a couple of seasons.
24. Atlanta Falcons—Out goes Jim Mora Jr. and in comes Bobby Petrino to lead these Falcons. While everyone seems to like him and what he does with quarterbacks, he’s never dealt with an ego like Michael Vick. They did commit to him however by trading Matt Schaub to the Texans for draft picks. They made Mughelli the highest paid FB in history by trying to institute a power running game which they don’t have the running backs for. By adding Joe Horn and losing Ashley Lelie, they improved their receivers’ hands which has been a real weak spot for these guys in the past. If Petrino can maximize Vick, look out, but if not, we’ll see the same unimaginative, self-destructing team we have in the past.
25. Miami Dolphins— Nick Saban has left town after screwing over an entire franchise with one signing. All that one move did was turn the Saints into perennial contenders and cause massive headaches for the Miami brain trust. Culpepper’s not going quietly from the practice field and this could drag on for quite some time. The biggest acquisitions for the Dolphins this off-season is that of Joey Porter, who will bring even more passion to an already aggressive defense, and Jay Feely who is actually an upgrade over Olindo Mare. They lost an inordinate amount of linemen on both sides of the ball isn’t going to help.
26. Houston Texans— Interesting off-season for these guys. Gary Kubiak brought in Matt Schaub for a nice 48 million dollar pay day, effectively ending the David Carr era. If that move doesn’t pan out the Texans could be wrecked for the next few years. However, I like them bringing in Ahman Green to team with Ron Dayne, it should provide a nice balance in the offense. Andre Johnson is still there, and as good as ever, They’re not winning a Super Bowl anytime soon, but at least they’ll put a respectable team on the field.
27. Minnesota Viking—–Regardless of what happens this season, they got the steal of the draft when Adrian “All-Day” Peterson fell into their lap at number seven. Their biggest free agent pick-up was strong safety Mike Doss from the Colts. They will not be great this year with Tavaris Jackson at quarterback unless the running game is so efficient behind Peterson and Chester Taylor that they just never have to throw the ball. Period. They’re headed in the right direction though with a young defensive core and a solid running game.
28. Washington Redskins—I like Jason Campbell, a lot, but I don’t think he’s quite ready to take these guys to the playoffs. They did get Fred Smoot back which will help them quite a bit considering he’ll back in a scheme he’s used to. The big problem is, they never add a youthful core because they trade their draft picks as soon as they can year in and year out. They had one pick in the first four rounds, which was LaRon Landry, a standout safety from LSU. He’ll team with Sean Taylor to make one of the more intriguing safety tandems in the league, but unless Joe Gibbs and company can work some serious magic, they’ll be sitting at home again come January.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—They’ve had some awful seasons since winning the Super Bowl. However, they were extremely aggressive when it came to free agency this year. By adding Cata June (who’s familiar with the Tampa 2) and Kevin Carter from the Dolphins who’s still a good defensive end, they should improve defensively. The biggest question mark is going to be at quarterback. Will Chris Simms be the man to lead them in the future, or is it time for a quick fix in Jeff Garcia?
30. Detroit Lions—Calvin Johnson has been wow-ing everyone in mini camps so far. Even the veterans have been left with their jaws dropped on several occasions. With Mike Martz’s offense now featuring Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, and Calvin Johnson, their passing game should be one of the best in the league. Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett were brought in to compete with Kevin Jones at running back. They’ve lost several depth players, but no serious starters were lost in the making of this franchise this off-season. Won’t be good, but not quite as bad as last year, right?
31. Oakland Raiders—What else could you want to hear out of Oakland except that Lane Kiffin’s in trouble for torturing the Raider players enough that the NFLPA had to step in. Personally, I’d rather have that then a bed and breakfast like atmosphere. Regardless, they made the only pick that made sense for them in JaMarcus Russell. Randy Moss is gone, which will help them because there’s nothing worse than a #1 receiver that doesn’t want to play. Jerry Porter should be happy now that Shell is gone and should go back to being a productive player again. They were very proactive this off-season with several key pick-ups including Dominic Rhodes (RB, Colts), Justin Griffith (FB, Falcons) and offensive linemen Jeremy Newberry, Cooper Carlisle, and Cornell Green which should improve their depth on offense. They’re on the right track, already having a solid defense, trying to build for the future.
32. Cleveland Browns—They traded their #1 pick from next to get Brady Quinn from the Cowboys. They added key pickups such as Eric Steinbach, Jamal Lewis, Seth McKinney, to help improve their running game. With that said, they’re just not going to be very good. Maybe competitive, but Charlie Frye is going to be their starting quarterback until they struggle and play Brady Quinn, who’s been rumored to be inaccurate and ineffective throwing into the wind. Isn’t it breezy out there in Cleveland?
And no, I don't give a crap about Phillips as the head coach, it's a coaching by committee deal this year. The offense will be fine, just need the defense to get to the QB. The Eagles and the Cowboys are going to battle it out for the NFC East (probably the NFC too) all year, and it's really a toss up between them.
T.O. has been a golden child so far. So weird...hope it's not a facade.