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Well, it’s that time of the year again, when all the experts and not-so-experts (as in my case) come out with their Super Bowl and top player predictions. Mine are probably a lot different than those you’ve seen on other sites, particularly with my choice of Minnesota as the breakout team of the year. I’ll spare you the explanation for later, but I see a solid foundation for a good run to the playoffs. Be warned, this will be the year of the defense across the NFL and in fantasy leagues. Many teams (Ravens, Dolphins, Raiders, Bears, Patriots, Jaguars, Steelers) return most of their defensive starters and coordinators, which should make for cohesive units that match up well against the many questionable offenses around the league. Expect lower stats and fantasy numbers than usual across the board. Without further ado, I bring you what the 2007 season will look like in six months time.
Standings
NFC East
Philadelphia (10-6) Dallas (9-7) Washington (7-9) N.Y. Giants (5-11)
NFC West
St. Louis (9-7)** San Francisco (9-7)* Seattle (6-10) Arizona (6-10)
NFC South
New Orleans (12-4) Carolina (9-7) Atlanta (5-11) Tampa Bay (4-12)
NFC North
Minnesota (11-5) Chicago (10-6)* Green Bay (6-10) Detroit (5-11)
AFC East
New England (13-3) Miami (9-7)* N.Y. Jets (7-9) Buffalo (6-10)
AFC West
San Diego (10-6) Oakland (8-8) Denver (8-8) Kansas City (6-10)
AFC South
Indianapolis (12-4) Jacksonville (8-8) Tennessee (6-10) Houston (6-10)
AFC North
Pittsburgh (11-5) Baltimore (10-6)* Cincinnati (9-7) Cleveland (4-12)
- Division Winner *Wildcard Winner
Wild Card Playoffs: (3) Pittsburgh over (6) Miami; (4) St. Louis over (5) Chicago (5) Baltimore over (4) San Diego; (3) Philadelphia over (6) San Francisco
Divisional Playoffs: (1) New England over (5) Baltimore; (1) New Orleans over (4) St. Louis (3) Pittsburgh over (2) Indianapolis; (2) Minnesota over (3) Philadelphia
Conference Championships: (1) New England over (3) Pittsburgh; (1) New Orleans over (2) Minnesota Super Bowl: New England over New Orleans 31 – 24
Top Players:
MVP: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
This is not to say that I think Drew Brees will have the best fantasy numbers of any quarterback, but he will put up very solid numbers on the best team in the NFC. In fact, the NFC is kind of a joke. When I was doing the records of the teams I was thinking about how many games the AFC was going to have to win to even things out. It was a lot. Anyways, with New Orleans running all over the competition, Brees putting up very solid statistics and being a good guy in the community, writers will be salivating over the opportunity to crown him as the MVP of the league. We will hear about how the league is changing its image and heading in the right direction, until ESPN realizes it no longer knows how to cover actual sports and begins paying athletes more money to misbehave than they get paid to play the game. That, or we will have Who’s Now 2?
Fantasy MVP: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams You actually thought I’d choose LT? Come on, what joy would there be in that? Jackson is a beast who is just coming into his own and should put up ridiculous stats this year. I’m thinking 1,800 yards and 20 TDs. His receptions and receiving yardage will be down, but Jackson will remain a threat in the passing game and get awfully close to his stated goal of 2,500 yards. I will even go out on a limb and say he will out fantasy point LT, who will return to earth. Turner will cut some of LTs carries and give them to Michael Turner, in an effort to keep LT fresh and ensure that he does not fade down the stretch like last year. Why else you ask? Because he still remains a human being…I think.
Fantasy LVP: Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs and Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers. I won’t bore you with the details you’ve read over and over again, but lets just say I am happy for LJ and his new contract, since he deserves $19 million guaranteed for being used and abused last year to the tune of 416 carries. Now, they are simply asking him to run behind a porous offensive line, on an offense with no QB or wideouts. Oops, sorry Eddie Kennison. This is a recipe for disaster. As for Gore, I see his broken hand as a sign of things to come. His body is fragile to begin with and he has really never carried the load of an entire season like he did last year. Don’t forget he wasn’t the outright starter on Miami because of injuries and, as a result, I see him breaking down under the stress of another long season.
Rookie of the Year (Fantasy and Reality): Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings I have been waiting to draft Peterson since his freshman year at Oklahoma when he showed an amazing combination of speed and power. I still remember a Sports Illustrated article about him, and the only thing I could think of was when I would get the opportunity to draft him. I was sure the day would never come, as he would be guaranteed to go first. But, low and behold, there he was waiting for me at pick 5 in my keeper draft. Thank God for broken collarbones! Needless to say, I welcomed him home with open arms, knowing that he would lead my team to glory for years to come. Aside from my infatuation, however, I back up this pick with my knowledge of Chester Taylor’s limitations (I had him in two leagues last year), which left him hovering around 4 yards/carry last year running behind an expensive offensive line with almost as many fumbles as touchdowns. Peterson will be the guy in Minnesota after a few weeks and will get the red zone carries from the get go. Everyone loves Calvin Johnson, but he is still a rookie and rookie receivers generally struggle. The pick is Peterson. Besides, he has the coolest nickname in football—AD—for “All Day.” It doesn’t sound that cool at first, but just think about yelling it to your friends as he scores touchdown after touchdown; it sounds much better then.
Breakout Performance of the Year: Ahman Green, RB, Houston Texans I am putting my fantasy cajonas on the line here, as almost every pundit has suggested that Green is destined to be a huge disappointment. He is already being labeled the Edgerrin James of last year. People say he is going to a place with a terrible O-line and his injuries will continue. The stats don’t bare this out, though. Houston ranked 20th as a team in yards per rushing attempt, a good .7 yards higher than Arizona, which finished last at 3.2 (the exact same number the Cardinals finished at in 2005). Not only that, but Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy were their primary runners. Green, meanwhile, still managed over 1,000 yards and 5TDs last year, despite missing two games and not reaching 275 carries. Green will be fresh, and he will be playing on a quick surface in a zone-blocking scheme that suits his speed and cutback ability. He will get plenty of opportunities to catch screen passes to help take some pressure off Schaub and take advantage of defenses that are too aggressive attacking the quarterback. All that and he has the second easiest rushing-defense schedule for the entire year and third-best playoff schedule. 2007 prediction: 1,300 rushing yards, 500 yards receiving and 10TD. Top 10 back. Balls to the wall, baby.
Breakin Performance of the Year: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills I’m creating my own award here, as the opposite of a breakout performance must be a breakin performance, right? Either way, Lynch is the guy here and has been for the entire pre-fantasy season. I have heard some ridiculous things of late, such as people comparing Lynch to Marshall Faulk before he even takes a regular season snap. The only thing those two players have in common is the first three letters of their first names. I do not mean to be vicious toward Mr. Lynch, but he has so many things going against him. First of all, he is a Cali boy now living in Buffalo. How did the warm to cold weather transition go for Willis McGahee? Second, the O-line in Buffalo is still atrocious. They added Derrick Dockery to the line, which was a good addition, but the other players remain almost the same as the line that held McGahee to 3.8 yards/carry last season (and never got him above 4.0). The only other change was the addition of Langston Walker, who couldn’t keep a starting position on the Raiders offensive line last year. That should tell you something. Just ask yourself: Is Lynch more talented than McGahee? I don’t think so. Finally, the preseason does not mean much, but when you have three terrible appearances in a row, including 9 rushes for 9 yards, you have to wonder. Please, don’t draft Lynch, do it for yourself and your fantasy sanity. You can thank me for it later. 2007 prediction: 788 yards and 4 TDs.
Breakout Team: Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders Both of these teams had something in common last year, aside from putrid offenses—the Vikings led the league in rushing defense while the Raiders led the NFL in passing defense. Although neither team made the playoffs last year, almost all of their defensive players are back with another year of development under their belts. The Vikings play in a weak conference where their defense may be able to dominate and their offense and defense specialize in and against the run, which is how you win in the NFL. Oakland’s young defense returns all of its main players from a unit that kept opponents under 300 yards per game last season. If their offense can put up 20 points a game, not a lot by any means, they have a chance to win on any given week. They’ll be in a lot of ballgames, so if the offense can execute under Lane Kiffin, anything is possible.
Ah, it’s fall in the NFL, where every team has a chance at glory, where every fan has optimism and hope. Go Raiders!
Thanks again for reading,
--Toby Guevin
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