NFL Power-Rankings: How To Guess
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by JuTMSY4
Of course everyone and their mother is going to start power-ranking the NFL teams. It’s been done since the dawn of history (otherwise known as 1920, the inception of the NFL) and has continued to this day via the constant and idiotic diatribe of coffee aficionado Peter King, the fellowship of NFL judges at ESPN.com and of course, the masters of all maths, fuzzy or not, FoxSports.com. But even we loyal Armchairgmers can rank the powers of the NFL, and we have…I guess.
Of course, none of those aforementioned people has ever gotten it ‘’right.’’ What NFL power-ranking would be complete without a constant line of bickering “home-town” fans demanding to know what on earth the Buffalo Bills are ranked 25 th or the Dallas Cowboys are 7 th with Tony Romo and that suspect Offensive Life! Its impossible. Clearly, the Minnesota Vikings should be in the teens and there’s no way the Tennessee Titans could be better than 10, their receivers are terrible!
But of course, there are methods to the madness. There are tricks to the trade. And there are idiosyncrasies to the idiom. Outlined here, may be some of the secrets, techniques as it were, to outlining the power-rankings in the acidic world of NFL blogs (yeah Peter, what you write is a glorifed and printed blog). Some of it makes sense, some of it is simple and some of it is probably, completely moronic, but at the least, it’s a starting point.
Defend those Picks
This should almost go without saying, but if you’re going to take the time to list teams 1 through 32 (and I’m going to take the time to click on the page), at least do me the honor of telling my why the hell you picked the Indianapolis Colts as number 1 over the Chargers or Patriots. Any monkey can write out 32 NFL teams in some semblance of an order, but without reasoning, even I could foresee the Cards being the best team in the NFL. The bottom line is, if you can’t tell me why a team is above or below general expectations than your article probably isn’t worth reading (Yes, I’m talking to you Fox)
Take those Numbers and…
Shove them. Sabremetrics is for baseball, bitches. According to Sabremetrics, Alex Rodriguez is god, without a World Series ring and has 400 and some odd homers. Thing is, the only statistics in baseball that really matter are runs and…uh…runs (you can call them points if you want…”SCORE MORE POINTS!”).
More importantly, the concept of Sabremetrics matters even less in football. The concept of only 16 games ‘’allows’’ for statistical anomalies because (stop me if you already know this) 16 games is the essence of a small sample size. Is this what makes the NFL great? Maybe, but what it also does is make the NFL season completely unpredictable. Did numbers tell you the Saints were going to win 10 games last year? Or that Chicago would and could still win 13 games regardless of the complete ineptitude of a certain “Gross” QB? Of course it didn’t.
So, if you are going to use numbers in your football equation (yeah, I’m talking to you again Fox), use them sparingly and cautiously. D21Dubs need not apply ; - )
Of course you want an example. Fox sports, if you didn’t already know, is known for using numbers almost solely to create power rankings. This might work, until you look at their Week 17 rankings and then Super Bowl Contestants.
Foxsports
Ranked the Colts 3 rd overall (Behind the Ravens and Chargers) and the Bears 6 th (Behind the Saints). Fox also stated that the Chargers, in week 17, “Soared past the Cardinals 27-20.” Since when is a 27-20 victory “soaring?”
ESPN
Rank the Colts 4 th Overall (Behind the Ravens, Charges and Pats) and the Bears 5 th. More importantly, ESPN was all over the potential Chiefs upset…that worked out, right?
SI
Ranked the Colts 5 th behind the usual suspects and the Bears 2 nd. At least Doc Z got one of ‘em dead on. More importantly, he had the Chargers at one and provided this little tidbit before the New England – Indy Championship game.
“Despite the orgies of strategy we'll see on both sides, I think it will wind up a high turnover game. Fewest wins. That'll be New England.”
In case you didn’t know, there were only two interceptions the whole game...those were the only turnovers.
So what does this really tell you about the “experts?”
Know What You’re Talking About
The only thing that makes you less credible than picking the Dallas Cowboys as Super Bowl Contenders is false information (like believing the Cowboys are actually good!). While professional “writers” like the aforementioned King, Doc Z and even…gulp…Bill Simmons have over you, besides a ridiculously large amount of time to research and fact-find, is a group of editors who can say, “Hey Jackass, the Saints were ranked 11 th in total defense…that’s 8 spots behind the Oakland Raiders!”
You, power-ranking cohort, don’t have this feature, so if you’re going to tell the masses about some inane stat, some tried and true reason why the Raiders ain’t half bad or how the 49ers will rise to the top of the NFC, it better be true. And if you’re going to recount some historic moment (like, say, a Super Bowl Victory?) at least have the respect to your readers to…Google it.
What Hits?!
Now, with all that talk about respecting your readers, don’t forget this little number. Your power rankings are, truly, yours alone. So don’t let some idiot Bills fan tell you how you didn’t rank them high enough even though “they’ve improved so much.” There are two playoff teams in that division, one of which just added Randy ‘’Freakin’’ Moss! and a certain Baltimore linebacker. Oh…and did I mention Darwin Walker…nice trade…thanks!
The point is, no matter what you do, some home town fans are not going to like your rankings (unless you rank the Detroit Lions at 11 or something…but no one would do that, right?) Take their attacks with a grain of salt, because, they didn’t even take the time to write a god damn power-ranking article…shame on them! Don’t even feel that you have to dignify you rankings with response. If some poor schmuck Seahawks fan needs to tell you how much the Deion Branch trade really improved the team (as the Pats continue to screw with the NFC West…thanks 49ers), don’t feel that you need to tell him why you were right to begin with…all intelligent football people know Scott Pioli jobbed Mike Holmgren.
The Hunch
We’ve all played hunches, we’ve all made stupid bets and we’ve all been taken aback by some of the craziest things in football. With the parity the league finds itself in today, its hard enough to pick a single winner from week to week let alone the best team (ideally the eventual Super Bowl winner) from the start of the season (or for that matter, the end). So if you’re going to do your rankings on hunches, you better make ‘em good hunches. What, you thought the Pats really were going to beat the Chargers last year or they’re primed for a Super Bowl Run in 2007. Congratulations, you’ve watched football for the past 5 years!
But, once again, if you’re going to go on a hunch, you better make it a good one. You feel Marshawn Lynch is going to lead the Bills to the promised land? Really, because you do realize he’s a rookie running back and they lost Willis McGahee (and he didn’t get them there). Oh, but they signed Derrick Dockery and Lynch is much more of an inside runner…NOW I GET IT! There’s your hunch and there’s your proof…now, if only I could practice what I preach…hmm…
Get a little Crazy
Kind of a play on the above. So you’re picking the Pats to win it all…thanks, My grandmother did the same thing. It’s not that your pick doesn’t appear to be right, and of course we can all defend it. Heck, I can think of a few reasons to rip it as well. The point is, that’s plain boring. So, if you have a damn good reason to suspect the Packers defense will be markedly improved or how the Cardinals offense will finally click (still can’t think of one), then do it. The only thing less entertaining than an article that is way off as far as its picks is one that is completely and utterly predictable. So, get a little crazy, show off those Googling skills and let us know why that new Panthers linebacker and David Carr will make that team rip up the south.
Its mid-July, so I hope we’ve all learned something here today. You don’t need to be some sort of NFL guru to make NFL rankings (shit, you don’t even need to watch the NFL to pick games…look at Simmons’ wife). But, you can’t just put some teams on paper and expect us all to believe you either. So with a little work, a little thinking and a lot of Googling, you can put together a ranking set that is…at the very least…readable or entertaining…
Oh…and you have to pick the Philadelphia Eagles…
A special thanks to Manny Stiles for reminding me I need to write more. I’m working on something (that I hope is) special this weekend, that, at the very least should be general in terms and very specific at the same time. You should be able to enjoy it…and it’ll have pictures!
