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NFL Defensive Rankings

24
Vote

by 71.33.59.71

Comments from football fans appreciated.

As an NFL fan, I have determined that I am dissatisfied by the way that the NFL ranks defenses. They are ranked simply by yards given up per game. Obviously the team with the lowest number is the best defense. This system, however, does not take into consideration other very important aspects of team defense. I propose a new formula that includes other important factors. (The reverse of this method would probably be a better way to rank offenses too, but we will save that for another day.)

My formula involves 4 numbers. A and B are added together and C and D are subtracted. The total number is divided by the number of games played and the resultant number becomes the Defensive Rating. The smaller the number, the better the defense.

 

A is the number of yards allowed on an offensive scoring drive. The point here is to not penalize a defense for yards that did not result in a score. Which is the better defense, the one that only allows 100yds per game or the one that only allows 3 pts per game? Isn’t it much better to give up 80 yds that do not result in a score than to give up a 20 yd td drive?

 

B is the number of points allowed. This is pretty self explanatory. Included are all extra points or 2 point conversions following an offensive td and all field goals following an offensive drive. Note that points scored on special teams, against the offense, or field goals not preceeded by an offensive play do not count as points against the defense.

 

C is a category that is not even included in team defense stats on the NFL website. This is defensive points. Any touchdown or safety is included here. Again, all extra points and 2 pt conversions following a td are included.

D is return yards. Return yards, however, are only counted from the initial point of possesion by the opposing offense. Since yards not resulting in points do not count against a defense, they should not be given “extra credit,” so to speak, for return yards unless the int or fumble is actually returned beyond the point where they first took the field. Included in return yards are any defensive stops that result in the opposing offense kicking from behind their initial spot of possession. This includes fg attempts. For instance, if an offense takes the field at the opposing team’s 10 yd line, losses 10 yds then kicks an fg from the 20, the defense is given credit for 10 return yds. But they still gave up the field goal. That drive would result in -7 points for the defense: 0 yards given up on a scoring drive, +3 points allowed, no points scored, -10 return yards.

(A + B) -(C + D)/ number of games played= low number for a good defense.


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AfraidofedhochuliDraft Pick
820 days ago
Score 1+-
I'm not sure how well this will work (i need to see examples) but I will give you thumbs up for not just seeign a problem, but tryignto fix it.
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TylersaltAll-Star
820 days ago
Score 1+-
I'd be interested to see how this plays out in ranking the defenses. I have one quibble with part A -- a scoring drive of 20 yards is (a) not necessarily the defense's fault, as it probably resulted from a turnover by the offense and (b) could be a good thing if the opposing team had good field position and was only able to drive 20 yards and kick a field goal. Frankly, I'd say a defense that only allows 100 yards a game is downright dominant, and if your defense is allowing that few yards, your opponents aren't going to be scoring many points either. A team that allowed a bunch of yards but only 3 points is bad and lucky. I also don't really understand part D, and this metric lumps in special teams with defense, which I'm not sure is appropriate. This idea has some promise, though. It reminds me of the struggle to quantify defense in baseball -- there are some metrics, but they are woefully inaccurate for the most part, and the ones that aren't are very complicated.
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
820 days ago
Score 0+-
Tylersalt, you are absolutely right abaout a team giving up an 80 yd drive for no score being "bad and lucky." But how often is that gonna happen? If it happens consistently, maybe more than luck is involved. Often pundits talk about defenses that bend but don't break. I think these defenses get screwed in the rankings because the rankings are based on the bending and not the breaking. Yes, I certainly don't want a defense that gives up a bunch of yards, but I also want a defense that stiffens in the red zone. I don't feel that the special teams are lumped in with the defense in this system because only the yards given up by the defense count against it. If a defense regularly takes the field at its own 20 because of poor special teams or poor offense it only gets dinged for 20 yds if the drive scores a TD. Part D is essentially just subtracting yards from the total number allowed by the defense. If, say, the Giants get the ball at their own 20, run 3 plays and lose 8 yards then have to kick from their own 12, then the Cowboy defense(or whatever team they are playing) gets the 8yds subtracted fom their total number of yds allowed. Also included in this category are fumble or int return yards. If the Giants start at their own 20, drive to the Cowboy 20, then throw a pick that is returned to midfield, the Cowboys get no credit for return yds because they did not return the ball beyond the Giant 20.
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WardenVarsity
820 days ago
Score 1+-
What about turnovers? Just as they kill a QB's ratings, they should count for a lot against the defensive ratings.
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Bberg11Varsity
820 days ago
Score 0+-
I agree that the way the NFL ranks defenses is way off, and I like your attempt to solve it, but I'm not so sure you're there yet. I'm not sure how you'd do it, but there should be some way to factor in/out yards that are earned in garbage time or when the game is already out of reach. To be honest, though, I think the points allowed stat is a pretty good barometer of how good a defense actually is. That's the bottom line right; to prevent the other team from scoring?
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Davis21wylieMVP
820 days ago
Score 0+-
Lord knows I appreciate this effort as much as anyone on earth, but it's a little convoluted. I'd just track defenses with DVOA -- I mean, that's why God gave us Aaron Schatz, right? :)
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Taytay 24All-American
820 days ago
Score 0+-
As others have said, you make a nice effort here, but there are flaws. The most glaring I see is that you have basically equated one point on the scoreboard to one yard on the ground. This is what you have done when you add yards surrendered to points allowed, and again when you subtract return yards and defensive points. The most efficient way to rank defenses is to simply take the yards allowed ranking and the points allowed ranking and average them. So if a team is #1 in yards, but #9 in points, they are really a 5. Do this for all teams to get an overall defensive rank that reveals more than simply points or yards in isolation. It doesn't give you an index-type number to compare over eras or anything, but it does tell you how the defenses rate this year.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
750 days ago
Score 0+-
What about inverse of offensive time of posession? The longer a defense must defend, the harder it is for them to perfrom. Is offensive performance sort of factored in?
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