NFC EAST Preview 2007
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by Jocktrotter
NFC EAST: Who Will Reign in ’07?
Jock Trotter reviews the history of one of the toughest divisions in sports—the NFC east—for clues to how 2007 will shake out. Includes references to Brad Goebel, Izell Jenkins, Paris Hilton, Charles Dickens, Vladimir Nbakov, Stony Case and more.
The following article appears in the current issue of www.phillyjock.com
A Tale of Two QBs
Before we delve into history, and what that history suggests will happen in 2007, let’s play a little game. It’s called “Which QB would you take?” It’s simple, so don’t be afraid. Just pretend your basement has magically transformed to an NFL War Room and I’ll phone in all the vital statistics. You make the pick.
Hypothetical G.M., you're on the clock. You have two choices: Quarterback A and Quarterback B.
Both quarterbacks have prototypical size. “A” is 6-2, 226. “B” is 6-4 220.
Both had storied college careers. “A” was a Heisman finalist who once ranked 3rd in the nation in passer rating. “B” was also a Heisman finalist who once finished 2nd in passer rating.
Pretty similar, right? Hard to decide. Well, I can also guarantee you this:
During their first eight seasons, both will earn repeated trips to the Pro Bowl. “A” will go to 5 Pro Bowls. “B” will go to 6 Pro Bowls.
Through 104 regular season games, “A” will have thrown for 22,080 yards and will have a touchdown/interception ratio of 152-72. At the same stage, “B” will have thrown for 20,723 yards and will have a ratio of 110-98.
So yes, there are some differences. But not many.
In those 8 seasons, “A” will have a 65-33 record, a .66 winning percentage. “B” will play in slightly more games, compiling a 70-43 record, but have a slightly lower winning percentage (.62). “A” will lead his team to five division titles in his first 8 seasons. “B” will win that exact number of division crowns in that time period.
Man, wouldn’t it be nice to have all this information on Draft Day? But it’s still tough, huh? Now you know how Andy Reid feels when he steps up to the counter trying to decide between the #8 meal and the #6 meal with curly fries. But be honest, you’d pick A, right?
Well, then here are two last pieces of information you may be interested in:
1) In those 8 years, “B” will win 3 Super Bowls and go on to be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “A” will win 0 Super Bowls and his future will be uncertain.
And finally, you will want to know their names:
“A” is named Donovan McNabb.
“B” is named Troy Aikman.
Speak, Memory
Yes, I was just as surprised to find the similarities between the career arcs of Donovan McNabb and Troy Aikman. They seem so different…and yet, are they really???
The McNabb/Aikman parallel was just one of many bizarre things I uncovered when I went digging through the annals of the NFC East. Has there ever been a crazier, more competitive, more successful division in the history of sports? My hope was that by tapping into the past, I would be able to find some clues for what lies ahead in ’07. And I did. So let’s fly back, you and I, into the past. Flying Delorian timer set for opening day 1992.
What you may have noticed, as we just instantly rewound through 15 years of football and 100 re-runs of America’s Funniest Home Videos (the ones with Bob Saget), was something counter-intuitive. You remember the NFC East as tough, brutal, pounding football, right? Three yards and a cloud of dust (or, in the case of Lawrence Taylor, three yards and a pound of dust)? And your memory is right. However, what stands out even more than that—and it kind of makes sense, now that you think about it—is one simple fact: the team that had the best quarterback play, in any given year, always won the division.
It adds up. Even your sister knows the quarterback is the most important player on the field—by far. No single player can make such a profound impact, either positively or negatively. Take Ronnie Lott off the 49ers off the 80s and substitute Izell “Burnt Toast” Jenkins and you probably still have a championship team. Take Joe Montana away and insert Brad Goebel, you still have a slow white guy, but now you have some serious problems and a higher draft pick.
By my calculations, from 1992-2007 the team with the best quarterback play won the division 93% of the time. And the argument could be made for 100%. The early 90s were dominated by Aikman, followed by a middle period which shall be referred to as the “Dark Ages”, then the current decade dominated by McNabb.
There are some footnotes. For example, last year (2006) the Eagles won the division with two quarterbacks: McNabb and Jeff Garcia. Still, I would argue they had the best quarterback play: they combined for 4,309 yards and a 31-9 TD/INT ratio. This footnote also appears in the 2002 season, when the three-headed football Hydra known as McNabb-Detmer-Feeley led the Birds to a 12-4 finish. (Before we go on, just take a second and actually picture a monster with those three heads. I’m seeing a big creature with a receding hairline, a dislocated elbow, and holding a clip-board with a naked picture of Heather Mitts on it. You, too? Weird.)
Anyway, besides those minor asterisks, there was the whole “Dark Ages” period. There was 1997, when the Dave Brown/Danny Kannell Project flew the Giants to the title. This was the one viable exception; the Giants had the #4 ranked defense that year. Plus, even if no one else was any good, I just can’t bring myself to admit that those two were the best any division had to offer. (For the record, the other QBs were—in order of divisional finish—Redskins: Gus Frerotte/Jeff Hostetler, Eagles: Ty Detmer/Bobby Hoying/Rodney Peete, Cowboys: Aikman [in a down year but still the best], and, last but not least, Cardinals: Jake Plummer/Kent Graham/Stony Case, a three-headed monster I simply imagine as a huge, steaming pile of dung.)
After that, the Aikman/Garrett Conglomeration was tops in ’98; Brad Johnson in ’99 (who, by the way, threw for over 4,000 yards and 24 TDs that year); then PSU Party Boy himself, Kerry Collins, who led the Giants to The Bowl in 2000 when he managed to stay sober. After that, the division belonged to McNabb, except in ’05, when the Eagles had Mike McMahon under center and the entire Eagles fan base was falling at 9.8 meters per second from the top of the Walt Whitman Bridge. Still, even that year it could be argued Eli Manning was the most competent quarterback of the sorry bunch, followed by 978-year-old Mark Brunell. Of course, the Giants won the division; the Skins finished 2nd…
I don’t mean to suggest that solid quarterback play is the only barometer of success. I’m just saying it’s by far the best. NFL coaches and GMs know this. Why do you think the Eagles took Kevin Kolb in the 2nd round? Because they want to have a QB as productive in the next decade as McNabb was in this one.
Is it too late for the Eagles? Has the “window” closed? Will the “torch” be passed? History shows that Aikman fell off toward the end of the decade, and the Cowboys weakened, and we saw the onset of the Dark Ages. Are the Eagles destined to do the same?
2007: Year of the…???
There are plenty of looming questions—not just for the Eagles, but for all the teams in the NFC East—and, looking back across history, the most relevant question seems to be: which team will have the best quarterback play in 2007? This is the criteria that will be most helpful in predicting what the standings will look like come January.
4. Washington Redskins (6-10)
As everyone knows, Washington has a recent track record of wasteful spending, unrealistic expectations, and arrogant management. Who knew this applied to football, too?
As far as I know, Joe Gibbs is still listening to Van Halen on a portable CD player and planning to vote for Ronald Reagan. If VH-1 wants to make another reality television show about a washed up star from the ‘80s they should just show live Redskins games and follow Gibbs around on the sideline. His quarterback is now Jason Campbell, who according to reports from training camp “is making great strides.” I don’t mean to bash Campbell, he may develop into a nice quarterback, but in ’07 I don’t see him making enough of a leap, and the ‘Skins don’t have enough to qualify for an exception to the Good Quarterback Rule. Thus, I predict a last-place finish.
3. New York Giants (7-9)
If any team has ever seemed primed for a train-wreck, it’s the Giants. Their coach is a lame duck, their best offensive player retired, and Michael Strahan’s wife may be demanding the gap between his teeth before the season’s over. As for Eli Manning, I don’t care what anyone says about the New York media, the camera does not add ten interceptions. Many are saying it’s a make-or-break season for Eli and I agree. He’s shown flashes of competence, and would be the logical choice to be the next top quarterback in the division, succeeding McNabb…but my gut says there’s about a 1/3 chance of that happening, 2/3 chance we’ll look back and say “he was never as good as he was supposed to be, never as good as his brother.” I wouldn’t be shocked if he got his act together in 2007, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And thus, the Giants will sink in the standings like a dead body in the bogs beside the Jersey turnpike.
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
Now here’s an interesting bar debate. Will Tony Romo be able to get over that disastrous moment when the ball slipped through his STD-ridden hands and develop into an elite QB? (Remember: he was a Pro Bowler last season.) Or will he simply remain an Average/Slightly Above Average QB as he was down the stretch in ’06?
My gut says the latter. Nothing about Tony Romo frightens me. I don’t go into a Dallas game thinking “Man, we need Romo to have an off game or we have no shot.” If you asked me right now: who do you think will have the best season in ’07: Tony Romo, Eli Manning, or Jason Campbell, I’d say Romo, which is why I have the Cowboys in second. But I don’t think he will ever be a top-5 QB.
With that said, the Cowboys have enough around him to compete for the division crown. There are plenty of examples where a good all-around team can thrive so long as the quarterbacking is at least adequate (’06 Bears, ’00 Ravens, to name just a few).
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Donovan, Donovan, Donovan. Though McNabb has been about as sturdy as Paris Hilton in a wind tunnel, it’s hard to argue that he won’t be the best quarterback in the division. Put it this way: if you had to win one game, right now, and you had to pick from Manning, Romo, or Campbell, wouldn’t you still take McNabb?
Still, the larger question is not whether he can do it for one game—it’s all sixteen, and the playoffs beyond. The Eagles have enough weapons that, should McNabb stay healthy (and Andy Reid defer enough of the load to Brian Westbrook) the Eagles can make a serious run at the NFC championship…and that elusive Super Bowl. Only time will tell, but when it comes down to it I still like McNabb as the class of the NFC East, and thus the Eagles to reign for the sixth time in seven years.
Jock Trotter is a renegade sports journalist. His work can be read at www.phillyjock.com
