NBA Draft: The Next Nowitzki
| 10
|
by user NBA Draft Blog
It is very strange, the lengths that NBA General Managers will go to in search of "The Next DIRK NOWITZKI." He is the rare gold nugget that has caused the gold rush. But with disturbing consistency, the GM’s are chasing fool’s gold. The international players (with no US college experience) are just not succeeding like the GM’s would hope.
In the last five drafts 27 foreign players have been selected in the first round. Only six averaged more than 10 points per game during the 2005-06 season, and six of these players did not play in the NBA in 05-06. Only three (YAO MING, TONY PARKER, and PAU GASOL) have been named to an All-Star team. Most importantly, none are in the same class as Dirk Nowitzki, but the search for the next international gem continues to blur the GM’s vision.
In 2003 the Detroit Pistons passed on CARMELO ANTHONY, DWYANE WADE, CHRIS BOSH and CHRIS KAMAN to select a Serbian, DARKO MILICIC, with the #2 pick. He looked good shooting jump shots in an empty gym, but that did not translate into success during real games and he couldn’t earn playing time. This season they gave up and traded him to the Orlando Magic for spare change. This trend shows no signs of slowing down, however. There is speculation that the TORONTO RAPTORS are seriously considering using the #1 pick on ANDREA BARGNANI, an Italian power forward. The hype is being hung on BARGNANI already, with the DIRK NOWITZKI comparison becoming more and more frequent. Reviewing video of Bargnani leaves many scouts with the impression is that he is more DARKO than DIRK. Toronto scouts disagree with that assessment.
I am not revealing the myth of “The Next Nowitzki” as an act of basketball patriotism. It’s mostly about evidence. It is hard to properly evaluate a prospect when he has not faced top American talent on a regular basis. Players that have competed in the NCAA have been trained in an environment that is easier to evaluate. Perhaps drafting an international player in the first round is the issue. MANU GINOBLI, for example, was a second round selection that has prospered. There is less financial commitment to a second round pick and less pressure for them to contribute immediately.
There are at least five international players with a chance to be selected in the first round of the upcoming draft. They will be asked to compete early, and when “The Next Nowitzki” fails to surface, GM’s could be fired. Eventually, the international prospect may be considered too risky to select early, as they once were, and the American player will again prove to be the best value.
Here is a look at the top international prospects in the 2006 NBA Draft:
- ANDREA BARGNANI, 6’11, Italy: The hype is gaining momentum, but it will be a challenge for him to prove that he is more than a frail jump-shooter with no discernable NBA position.
- SAER SENE, 7’0, Senegal: Great size and athleticism, but he doesn’t know how to play basketball, and the NBA is a hard place to learn the game.
- OLEKSIY PECHEROV, 6’10, Ukraine: The team that drafts him in the first round will hope he is the next ANDREI KIRILENKO. He isn’t. I don’t believe he will be in the NBA after a few years in the D-League.
- SERGIO RODRIGUEZ, 6’3, Spain: I actually like this player. He has legitimate NBA point guard skills: creativity, ball handling, and quickness. He just needs to improve his strength and defense.
- THABO SEFALOSHA, 6’6, Switzerland: An enigma. He is one of the best players in the Italian pro league, which is about the same as being one of the best players in the Mountain West Conference, not an exciting pedigree.
Date
Fri 06/23/06, 1:21 am EST
