Minnesota Twins: What Could Have Been
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
With a recent hot streak, Minnesota has pulled themselves back into the playoff hunt. Minnesota fans look back at the first half and notice some major flaws in how the team handled the roster. Here are three moves that, had they been made, might have had the Twins challenging the Detroit Tigers for the Division Crown.
1. Replace Kyle Lohse with Francisco Liriano in the rotation As bad as Kyle Lohse was in his eight starts, the Twins managed to win four of them. I will now do some math, courtesy of BaseballProspectus. Based on how Liriano has done each start, the Twins would be expected to win 71.8% of his starts. If you assume Liriano would have pitched as well as he has so far for those eight starts in place of Lohse, then the Twins would have won 5.7 of his starts. Let's round this to an even six wins. Had Francisco Liriano been penciled in the rotation instead of Lohse to start the year, the Twins would have most likely gained two wins at most.
2. Played anyone besides Rondell White at DH White has hit a miserable .221/.250/.309 this season. Still, the Twins continue to start him at DH, allowing him to accumulate over 200 at bats. His VORP(Value Over Replacement Player) this season stands below zero, at -13.5. In other words, White has cost the Twins 13.5 runs when compared to a replacement player. A replacement player is someone who could be found cheaply on the waiver-wire. A win is worth approximately ten runs; therefore, White has cost the Twins a little over one win this year. White ranks as the sixth worst batter in 2006 according to VORP. Had the Twins used the DH spot to get more at bats for a player like Jason Kubel in the first half, they would have probably gained two or three wins.
3. Started Terry Tiffee and Jason Bartlett over Tony Batista and Juan Castro on the left side of the infield
Between Batista and Castro, the Twins lost about one win. Batista slugged .388, with a .303 OBP. These numbers actually didn't look so bad next to Castro's .231/.258/.308 line. They combined for 359 plate appearances in the first half. Minnesota's front office washed their hands of these two players within days of each other. On June 15th, Cincinnati traded OF Brandon Roberts to Minnesota for Castro. Four days later, Batista was released. If replacement level players had replaced Batista and Castro from the start, the Twins would have gained back the win they lost. If Tiffee, about replacement level, and Bartlett, well above replacement level, had been the original starters, then the Twins would have gained back the win they lost, plus added an extra win.
In total, it is very likely the Twins would be with a 61-35 record instead of a 55-41 record had they made a few necessary moves earlier. This would have them in the Wild Card lead and only 3.5 games back from Detroit in the AL Central. As the trade deadline approaches, it appears as if the Twins will remain virtualy inactive. Kyle Lohse looks to be Minnesota's only trading chip, with Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart hurt. The Twins stand within 3 games of a Wild Card berth, and are fielding a better team for the second half than they started the season with. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota has won eight of ten as they push for an unlikely playoff spot.
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Date
Sun 07/23/06, 4:40 am EST
