Mets Need to Stand Pat

by user MetsJetsDevils

With Victor Zambrano's season-inning injury, the main stream media will respond in two distinct ways:

1. Starting today, and everytime the Mets throw a pitcher the calibar of a Jose Lima, John Maine, and Jeremi Gonzalez, there will be an article saying the Mets need to trade for Barry Zito or Dontrelle Willis, even if they have to give up Lastings Milledge.

2. As the season progresses, if the Mets don't address their starting pitching, there will be articles clammoring for the Mets to call up Mike Pelfrey.

The Mets would be wise to do neither. First of all, right now every team is going to try to rip off the Mets hoping the Mets will make a panic move. It should be obvious that the price for pitching will be cheaper in the summer than it is now. Likewise, the Mets don't need to get another frontline starter. If they make a move, they need more of a dependable 3/4 starter than they do a frontline guy. Obviously, if they can get a frontline guy without giving up Milledge they might consider it. Milledge, along with Reyes, Wright, Pelfrey and Humber, are the future of this team. Dealing anyone of them could prove a very costly mistake.

That brings us to Pelfrey. The guy is ripping up the minors right now. However, he is the future, not the present. He is still learning to pitch and can really benefit from a year in AA. Let his late season call up be to AAA, not the bigs, and pencil him in for a spot in the rotation next year.

The Mets have intriguing depth at other positions that can be used to bring in a pitcher. A trade of John Maine and Victor Diaz should bring back some pretty good value.

Date

Mon 05/08/06, 9:09 am EST <pageTools></pageTools>

Awrigh01All-Star

1300 days ago

Score -1

couldn't agree more . . .

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Awrigh01All-Star

1300 days ago

Score -1

I think they could move Diaz for a decent arm. I would be willing to move Humber too. Soler is also tearing it up and could be a decent major league pitcher.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1300 days ago

Score 0

Sorry, I wrote this article but forgot to sign in. Soler is interesting becuase he has pitched in the low minors but has significant international experience. Still, his spring training numbers were not very good. Obviously he has more potential than Jeremi Gonzalez but Gonzalez is a more mature and ready pitcher at this point and getting beat up in the pros can have no downside because he has no upside.

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DNLLegend

1300 days ago

Score 0

The Mets have a ton of internal options: promote Bell and move Heilman to the rotation; promote Soler; play scrub Bingo (Lima/Oliver/Gonzalez) until Maine and Bannister come back. Any of these are acceptable. If they can get Oliver Perez for a low-level C-grade prospect, that's fine too. (You eat the $18m/2y.) Anything else is patently silly. Maine+Diaz gets us a guy like Maine but with experience, which is to say a higher rate of pay.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1300 days ago

Score -2

Heilman does not belong in the rotation. We have a good thing going right now with Heilman, Sanchez, Wagner. Having Heilman pitch mediocre every 5th start is not nearly as valuable as having him in the bullpen for 3 or 4 out of every 5 games. Plus, Bell is not a Major league pitcher. Right now he has only 1 pitch so he is a big downgrade in the bullpen. And I disagree that Diaz and Maine gets a more experienced Maine. I don't see why they can't get a guy like Brad Radke, Jeff Weaver, Kelvin Escobar, Jamie Moyer, Jarrod Washburn, Gil Meche, or Livan Hernandez.

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

1300 days ago

Score -1

Wow, anonymous fanatic is thoroughly wrong. Heilman does belong in the rotation and Bell is a major league pitcher (just look at his peripherals). And other than Gil Meche (who's terrible), all of those other pitchers are important cogs in their teams' chances this season. Let's face it -- Minaya effed up when he traded both Seo and Benson. If one of them is around right now -- preferably Benson, of course -- we don't have to throw guys like Jose Lima and Darren Oliver out there.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1300 days ago

Score 1

No, Anonymous fanatic the 2nd, it is you who is wrong. There is no way that anyone in their right mind, who knows anything about baseball thinks the Seo for Sanchez trade was a bad trade. You gave up a 5th starter for a guy who has thus far been the best set up man in baseball and easily the most valuable member of the Mets bullpen. The Benson for Julio and Maine trade is more questionable because you always want depth at SP but the Mets got back a legitimate starting pitcher prospect in Maine who went on the 15 day DL. It happens. "Important Cogs in their team's chances this season?" Are you kidding me. I picked those pitchers specifically because they play for last place teams or teams that are unlikely to be in the hunt for anything but an early 1st rd pick come July. As for Heath Bell, I don't know what "peripherals" you are talking about. While he struck out a lot of people, no one doubts he is a hard thrower, he also had a 5.6 era last year. He was very hittable giving up the equivalent of over 10 hits per 9 innings, lousy for a late inning guy. Until Heath Bell can effectively throw an offspeed pitch to det up his fastball he is useless. So you lose Heilman in the bullpen 3 or 4 out of every 5 days and replace him with a guy who will give up at least a hit an inning and a run about 2 out of every 3 innings. To improve one game a week you sacrifice 3. Makes little sense.

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Anonymous Fanatic #3

1299 days ago

Score 0

MetsJetsDevilsRangersYankeesIslanders:

Couldn't disagree more. The difference between Jose Lima and Aaron Heilman in the rotation is far greater than the difference between Chad Bradford or Feliciano picking up the slack for Heilman in the bullpen. It's simple math -- Heilman has pitched in 14 games (17 IP) in the Mets first 31 games, approximately three innings per week. You're saying that the Mets don't have enough depth in their bulpen to cover three innings per week? Also, while Heath Bell wasn't good last year, he strikes out a man per inning and doesn't give up many home runs. Check out the Hardball Times article: http://www.h...-heath-bell/ Beware, it references those scary, complicated "peripherals."

As for your suggested trades....the only reasonable suggestion in the mix is Livan Hernandez. And who would you give up to get him? The Nats aren't going to do it for Victor Diaz and Jeff Keppinger.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1299 days ago

Score 0

"Nearly 38% of the balls he hit into play became hits, which was poor enough to give him the ninth-worst BABIP of any pitcher in baseball." Like I said, he is not a very good pitcher. Look, going into the season Heilman was better than some of the people the Mets had starting. The Mets feel that Heilman is more valuable pitching the 7th inning than going every 5 days. Look at how the Mets starting pitching is structured. Especially early in the season, our top 2 pitchers are 6 inning guys. We need someone to consistently get us from the 7th to the 8th to the 9th. With Heilman, Sanchez, Wagner this might be the best we have ever had at doing that. Neither Heath Bell, Jorge Julio, or Chad Bradford can do what Heilman does. Even Bell's numbers at Norfolk aren't that good. He is giving up over a hit an inning to AAA players. Jose Lima is a veteran pitcher, with good control and tons of experience. Rather than restructure the bullpen that has been so effective, I can live with Lima every 5th day until Bannister and Maine come back.

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Anonymous Fanatic #3

1299 days ago

Score 0

You talk about Bannister and Maine as if they're established, solid major league pitchers. As for Bell...The ninth-worst BABIP number is exactly why sabermetrically-inclined fans want the Mets to give him another shot. Fact is, there are many factors (defense, luck, etc) that go into giving up hits that aren't home runs (see Voros McCracken's DIPS research). So, while he'll likely give up a lot less hits, he'll probably continue to strike people out at a very high rate. That's not to say he can just step in for Heilman. But he can be a decent option in the 'pen, enabling Heilman to replace the godawful Jose Lima and the green John Maine.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1299 days ago

Score -1

This is why Sabermetrics drives me crazy. Despite the fact that is does not build championship teams, it makes people believe that a 29 year old career minor leaguer, signed by the Mets 8 years ago, and who still hasn't developed an out pitch to compliment his fastball can all of a sudden come the the majors and be an effective member of the bullpen. He may have "peripherals" but my own eyes and history tell me that major league hitters, as opposed to the career minor leaguers mostly found at AAA, can hit a major league fastball. He was just called up so he will get his chance. We will have to wait and see who is right. The people who ignore actual results because their computers and charts and graphs say a guy "should" be good, or the people who see a 29 year old career minor leaguer pitch in 42 games with an ERA over 5 and decide that this guy probably isn't much of a pitcher.

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Anonymous Fanatic #3

1299 days ago

Score 2

To nitpick, Bell is 28-years-old (he turns 29 in September, though, so you're close enough).

Also: Boston Red Sox won a championship with Bill James and Theo Epstein in their front office. Both embrace sabermetric principals. Also, part II: Heath Bell has 70 strike outs in 71 innings pitched in the majors and also had a very effective 25 inning stretch in 2004 (3.33 ERA).

Listen, do I think Heath Bell is the second coming of Dennis Eckersley? Absolutely not. But I'm a lot more comfortable with him pitching a few innings per week than Jose Lima pitching six or seven? Definitely.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1299 days ago

Score 0

The Red Sox had Pedro and Curt Schilling. Hardly Sabermetrics.

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