Messaging with the AGM OldHeads - Davis21wylie and Manny Stiles

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Mess'ng with the AGM Oldheads

Today's Special Guest Star - Davis21wylie

You may know him as the guy who Anon's the world around want banished to hell for rating Tom Brady so low... and getting over 125 votes and counting!!!

You may know him as the smartest Red Sox and Patriots fan on the planet (The one who doesn't need to tell you how smart he is)

You may know him as a variety of nicknames - The Human Calculator, D21Dub, Neil Wayne/Statman, "Goo", "Carry da 1", etc.

You may know him as the AGM beat reporter, editor and President of "Tomahawk Times".

You may even know him as a dedicated lover of all things Tecmo.

I know him as a guy who probably couldn't hit the infamous "crinkleball"...

Messaging with the AGM Oldheads

The following conversation took place on a cold winter night...

Stiles - Explain the name. Not "Goo", but your user name...

D21Dub - Phew, this is going to take a while...

Davis is my first name, which I never go by (always a decision you question when they call roll on the first day in a new class, BTW). Anyway, I go by Neil (my middle name) in real life, but for internet purposes I decided to go with the first name as part of my username -- sort of an alter-ego, I guess. 21 was always my number in basketball, whether in middle school, high school, you name it. I picked it because Kevin Garnett has always been my favorite NBA player, and I fancied myself a KG clone in those days (except white, unathletic, and 7 inches shorter). An aside: as a longtime KG and C's backer, you can imagine that I'm enjoying Boston's season right now! And "Wylie" is for my favorite cartoon character growing up, Wile E. Coyote. Seriously. I made up the username when I was 13, and was looking around for a third random item to add to it, saw my Wile E. Coyote coffee mug on my desk, and said why not? So yeah, it's a very odd user name, for sure. Just call me D21W or something, and we'll be just fine.

Stiles - I don't go by my first name (Matthew) either, so I'm with you on that, although I was "Matty Stiles" for a while...

If Wile E Coyote was always chasing that stupid roadrunner because he was hungry and he could get just about anything from the Acme catalog (including birdseed) why didn't he just order some Coyote food? I mean, it's not like a roadrunner has much meat on it anyway.

The episode where the Roadrunner goes on vacation and Bugs Bunny fills in for him is one of my favorite Looney Tunes.

D21Dub - I always hated that damn cocky Roadrunner. Just once, why couldn't the Coyote get him? Although, come to think of it, it's completely Wile E.'s fault for buying from Acme again and again... Their products break at the most inoppurtune times, how are you not getting this?

But yeah, at some point, you have to think it stopped being about the food. It got personal. Vendetta-style. At least that's the way I look at it. And I'd like to think that someday he'll get the Roadrunner... Someday.

Stiles - I love it! Vendetta style!!!

Do you dream in numbers or black & white?

D21Dub - Ha, I'm not sure. I dream in music sometimes. If it's a good dream, it'll be something like Thelonious Monk. And as far as bad dreams go, Celine Dion's a pretty good bet to have me waking up screaming in terror.

Stiles - Thelonious Monk? Wow! Thelonious was one of the names I suggested for my son that my wife didn't axe right away! Straight, no chaser or Misterioso?

D21Dub - Awesome name, and a true musical genius. I enjoy all of his stuff... "Genius of Modern Music," which came really early in his career, is brilliant. "Straight, No Chaser" is especially fascinating; Monk is one of those guys whose performances aren't really complete without being able to see him make the music. In fact, somebody actually uploaded that whole documentary to Youtube. Watching Thelonious Monk play piano is really unlike anything else in music, it has to be seen to be understood, and even then you don't really get it.

Stiles - If I just fell onto this planet from space, or suffered recent brain trauma, what would I need to know about Georgia Tech?

D21Dub - Well, first things first -- if you had a recent brain trauma, I'd advise you to attend U(sic)GA, where you could probably still be valedictorian...

But seriously, know that we're one of the 5 best engineering schools in the country, we kick ass in all things science, our sports teams manage to do all right despite tough academic requirements ('90 football champs, '04 Final Four), and we're currently working hard to improve on that infamously low female-to-male ratio in the student body.

Stiles - Valedictorian, eh? But you say there's more girls there... You mean that hot babes don't gravitate towards science like it is commonly percieved?

D21Dub - Yeah, big shocker, right? But it's not that bad, you can still find great girls here if you're actively looking for them. Too many guys use the ratio as an excuse for no action, when in reality it's their own fault that they're not getting dates. You just have to make the best of your situation... When life hands you -- well, I won't go with that metaphor, it sounds too dirty. But you know what I mean.

Stiles - If you could clear the confusion about any one statistic in sports - which would it be and what would be cleared? And how would the world be a better place for it?

D21Dub - Only one? But there are so many that need clearing up!

If I had to choose just one, I'd tell people to not be scared of using OPS to evaluate hitters instead of batting average. OPS is certainly not perfect, but it's simple and it captures the two main things we need to know about hitters: how well they get on base and how well they advance runners. There's nothing scary or "new age" about using better information.

And as for how the world would be a better place, I think we'd see a drastic reduction in the number of sportswriter mancrushes on David Eckstein. Those Eckstein articles are getting out of control!

Stiles - Aw man, I was hoping for some ePRx/F2*greek symbol concoction that made sense of everything. But I guess you're right... ducks on the pond lead to runs and runs are the point of the game.

But is there ever going to be a "perfect statistic"?

D21Dub - I don't think so. As much as you'd like to quantify and decontextualize everything, it's really not possible. But I do think that when simple, meaningful stats like OBP & SLG basically tell you what you'd like to know, why let tradition keep you from using them? If only they had kept doubles, triples, and HR allowed stats for pitchers from the beginning of time, too...

Stiles - If you could spend eternity as a human stuck in a video game, which video game would you choose to be stuck in? Yes, you can even be Bo in Tecmo Bowl or the QB on a reverse in John Elway's Quarterback...

D21Dub - Steve Grogan in Tecmo! Just kidding, I don't want to go to hell...

Um, I'd either be QB Eagles in Tecmo or Mario Lemieux in NHL 94. Both were absolutely unstoppable; Randall had a lot of the elusiveness of Bo plus a great arm, and Mario could throw the old triple deke at anybody. Bo and Roenick get all the press, but these guys were just as devastating.

And my final answer? It's close, but I'll pick QB Eagles. He's even fast enough to avoid a lurch... Now that's badass.

Stiles - NHL '94 pretty much sealed the deal on my dropping out of college. Mario was the shit but I was always always always Pavel Bure on that game.

The best part of QB Eagles was every pass play was effectively an option to run (because Heath Sherman and Keith Byars weren't scaring anyone) plus you had the awesome Eagles defense. Nice choices! But I'm still going with Tom Chambers in was it Lakers vs. Bulls? or Bulls vs. Blazers. Un-Stop-Able. Plus I have experienced the personal joy of watching Tom Chambers awkwardly try to laugh it off when you bring it up to him...

D21Dub - Nice, I remember dunking with Chambers from the 3-point line, he was pretty unstoppable. But QB Eagles is everything the media wished Mike Vick would be -- an unbelievable runner who could sling the ball around with the best of them (kinda like Randall was in real life, but that's another story). I'm a lifelong Patriots fan, but when faced with the decision between QB Eagles and Steve "My Throws Have More Hangtime Than Brian Hansen's Punts, Of Which There Are Many" Grogan... I feel guilty about it, but no more so than I feel for lurching with Mike Golic. Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do!

Stiles - Speaking of video games, Blue Angels pilots train on video simulators, NASCAR racers practice on video simulators, could the best Madden Player out-playcall an average NFL coach (meaning a coach better than Brian Billick) - would it be even close or are we edging closer to the day when a Madden player gets hired by an NFL team?

D21Dub - No way in hell. The simplest playbooks in, say, college football are hundreds of times more complex than the most intricate Madden playbooks. You put a Madden player in as a playcaller and Billick would absolutely destroy him, no contest. That's like saying that because I can hit a fastball in a batting cage, I'd be able to step in at the MLB level. Never gonna happen.

D21Dub - So do you think Vince Lombardi could beat a coach from today with his playbook? I'm of the mindset that sometimes keeping it simple would confuse the shit out of Brian Billick...

D21Dub - I'd like to think that Lombardi would adapt on the fly, but today's schemes are so sophisticated that a coach from just 15-20 years ago would probably struggle to deal with them, much less coaches from 40 years ago. The game has changed so much in so short a time period... I do think that it would be easier for pro coaches to adapt than college ones, though. Some colleges were running the wishbone as their primary formation as recently as the 1990s! But even at the pro level, a lot of schemes are so cutting edge that coaches who leave the game for a few years are completely lost when they come back (for example, look at Art Shell and Tom Walsh last year).

Stiles - If you had to estimate your lifetime career wiffleball statistics what would your Wiffleball Hall of Fame plaque say?

D21Dub - First, I'd need a dope nickname to put under my name, like "The Crinkleball Kid" or something. Then, the plaque would read: "Won 230 games. Lost 200. ERA of 5.00. Threw a lot of knuckleballs. Didn't really know where the ball was going most of the time. Walked and/or hit his share of batters. The Phil Niekro of whiffleball. Only got in because he's friends with the Commissioner."

Stiles - You're lucky I was the Sultan of the Short Porch due to a smaller garage in right field than left field padding my career HR totals! Or I'd have to thumbwrestle you for that moniker.

I'm kidding, I love it! Beats the hell out "The kid who needed the Red Fat Bat".

D21Dub - I would love to see a photo of the crinkleball grip. I'll have to bust it out in our sporadic games we have here at college and let you know what happens. I have a feeling that 5.00 ERA (it's an offense-happy era, what can you say?) will be going WAAAY down!

Stiles - Will do. Basically to grip the crinkle ball - push one side of the ball into the other side and whip it! Sure it's "illegal" in most people's rulebooks, but most people load and tape the shit out their bats, too...

How many times did you want to grow a digital arm and reach through your computer to smack me upside the head for things I said to besmirch your beloved teams? Does it even out when you factor in my Jeter bashing?

D21Dub - Heh, Boston-bashing is quite the vogue thing to do nowadays, isn't it? But the beauty of sports is that fans on either side can say whatever they want, and it has no real bearing on the outcome of the game -- which is, in the end, the only thing that really matters. So talk away, my friend... As Tom Brady (or was it Benjamin Franklin?) might say, "Well done is better than well said."

Although I admit, it is always fun to bash Jeter.

Stiles - Well said... Let's bash Jeter!!! Is he the suckiest fielding Gold Glove winner or does he just suck where it counts - with the voters?

D21Dub - Here's a good Jeter joke:

This guy says to his friend, "Hey, how did your date go last night with that woman you met, the one who likes baseball?"

The second guy says "Oh, it went real well. We had a great time! I like her a lot. The only thing that bothered me a little is that all night long she kept talking about her favorite player. You know, that guy who plays shortstop for the Yankees."

The first guy says "Jeter?"

And the second guy says "No, not yet. But I'm hoping to tonight."

Stiles - There's no such thing as a bad Jeter joke!

Check this out - I had this theory that if you took a pitcher's innings pitched, and divided it by their ERA x 100, (essentially removing the decimal), you'd be able to compare dominant seasons between relievers and starters, but it would probably be a sucky stat for "regular" pitcher's seasons - What do you think?

IP/ERA x 100 = Stiles' Yet-to-be-named-Stat-for-comparing-the-most-dominant-seasons-by-a-pitcher.

D21Dub - What that reduces to is (IP^2)/(900*ER). It would probably do a decent job of ranking pitchers, because it's a ratio of good things (innings squared) to bad things (900*ER), but it wouldn't really mean anything (the result would be in a very bizarre unit). Still, just for kicks and giggles, here are your best-ever seasons by the Stiles Index:

Player		Year	Stiles#
------------------------------
Ed Walsh	1908	3.28
Pete Alexander	1915	3.09
Walter Johnson	1913	3.02
Ed Walsh	1910	2.92
Addie Joss	1908	2.79
C. Mathewson	1908	2.74
Walter Johnson	1910	2.72
Jack Coombs	1910	2.71
Bob Gibson	1968	2.71
Mordecai Brown	1906	2.67

Stiles - maybe if we neutralized it to the league averages or just added an asterisk that made it every season after 1920.

I got the idea from perusing an almanac that listed Cy Young winners with only their IP and ERA and it was staring at me, daring me to name it!

It could be valuable when comparing heavy workloads to short relievers, I think with some tweaking.

Is a 2.00 ERA for 75 innings pitched better or worse than a 3.00 ERA for 150 IP? See where I'm going? Maybe it would help Cy Young voters, maybe I'm an idiot?

D21Dub - An easier (and probably more theoretically sound) thing to do would be to compare ERA to some baseline (average, replacement, whatever) and see how many runs the guy saved versus that baseline. Like, say our baseline was the 2007 NL Average ERA (4.43): in 75 IP that works out to 37 ER allowed, and Guy A allowed 17, so that's 20 runs saved (((4.43-2)/9)*75). By the same method, Guy B would have saved 24 runs, so his 3.00 ERA in 150 IP is slightly more valuable than Guy A's 2.00 ERA in 75 IP. In fact, you could even break the baseline up by starter/reliever (average relievers have lower ERAs), or instead of "runs saved over average", go with something like "runs saved over Armando Benitez". Whatever floats your boat, man.

Stiles - And that is where you just lost me...

Which user that isn't around anymore do you miss? What upgraded features of Armchair have made your experience easier?

D21Dub - Gosh, off the top of my head I can't even think of someone I miss who doesn't come around anymore. In fact, I haven't been around much recently, so I'm going to go with me. I miss me!

Seriously, though, I guess I don't see Pean that much around the site anymore. I know he's here somewhere, but I haven't shot the breeze with that guy in ages. So he's somebody I miss. Other than that, I can't really think of anybody.

And the features -- all of the new features are great, I couldn't possibly pick a favorite! Okay, fine, I enjoy the fact that the nav bar is functional and actually helps you navigate the site... unlike the old one, which served no purpose whatsoever. So, to summarize, I don't know. That's my answer to both questions.

Stiles - I concur. Pean is a top notch lurker and a swell enough guy for being so handsome.

D21Dub - Absolutely agree. And if he still happens to have any of that Wikia money just lying around, well, we wouldn't be so rude as to turn down a gift, right Manny? :)