MLS Week 28 Previews: Expect Some Clinching

by user The Manly Ferry UPDATED, October 6, 2006 (MLS's Previews now embedded)

To begin, I thought I’d try something new with this week’s previews. Rather than post completed previews on Friday morning, I’ll write my own thoughts today and continue adding links to articles and previews that seem relevant all the way up to the weekend. Sure, this means the final draft of this post won’t appear till Friday afternoon, but it also means that, by 5 p.m. Friday, this post will contain the most recent available information.

In the meantime, though, here are the usual things one needs to know: the standings, the injury report (dated September 29, 2006; will update this later if another report appears), and a list of suspensions for the weekend. The question comes, I suppose, with how to highlight new content...the answer is, I’m working on it.

Turning to Major League Soccer’s Week 28 itself, it’s possible a thing or two will be decided this weekend - out in the Western Conference in particular, where both the Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy’s respective seasons hang on results for Chivas USA and the Colorado Rapids. Let’s just say the phrase "if LA fails to win against FC Dallas" features often in the playoff primer posted on Paddock Talk. In any case, between home-field advantage and post-season places, we may yet see some clinching this weekend.

On to the previews:

DC United v. New England Revolution

(MLS Preview)

DC: Overall, 15-5-10, 55 pts.; Home, 9-1-4; Form, WLTTLWL

NE: Overall, 10-8-12, 42 pts.; Away, 3-5-7; Form, LWTWTW

It takes a steadying look at New England’s last five games to blot out the reality of their somewhat shabby overall record. It also takes ignorance of the fact that only one of those “Ws” came on the road - and that was against Red Bull New York. Moreover, no less than their home-field record, some key individual match-ups favor the hosts: absent Shalrie Joseph, or his next best deputy, Daniel Hernandez, who contains DC’s MVP-worthy Christian Gomez? While there’s little doubt who brings more to a game overall between DC’s Jaime Moreno and the Revs’ Taylor Twellman (it's the former), who will be hotter on the day? For their part, the Revs enjoy a pair of get-out-of-jail-free blessings: the suspension of DC’s Joshua Gros, who would have stifled Steve Ralston, and DC’s recent trouble with keeping their heads. If New England can afford to affix a pair of eager young adults to Gomez while still holding onto to some offensive potency, they’ll pull out a result...otherwise...

Prediction (and blasphemy - see the header here): DC UNITED WINS.

FC Dallas v. Los Angeles Galaxy

(MLS Preview)

Dallas: Overall,15-11-4, 49 pts.; Home, 11-3-1; Form, WTLLWL

LA: Overall, 10-14-6, 36 pts.; Away, 5-8-2; Form, WWLTLLW

Clearly, this is a big game for the visitors. And a straight comparison of both teams’ respective performances in last weekend’s games (Dallas and LA)would point a punter directly to a Los Angeles win, as would the long history of LA thumping Dallas in the majority of their must-win games. Their likely seizing of the Western Conference crown aside, Dallas’ sole saving grace comes in their home record, which stands as the league's best. Absent a predictable pattern to the home losses - which include losses to Columbus (?!), DC United, and Chivas USA - it’s fair to say that home record means something; and one of those 11 home wins was over the same Los Angeles Galaxy way back in May. Dallas does have the horses to win this one - except in defense. And therein lies the problem. Well, that and the fact that last weekend’s loss in Columbus utterly collapsed my faith in FC Dallas.

Prediction: LOS ANGELES GALAXY WINS - How can I go the other way?

Kansas City Wizards v. Chivas USA

(MLS Preview)

KC: Overall, 9-13-6, 35 pts.; Home, 6-4-5; Form, LWTT (slow month, eh?)

Chivas: Overall, 10-8-12, 42 pts.; Away, 3-6-6; Form, LTWTWL

Another big one, but it’s the hosts who are desperate here. While Kansas City needs to play this game with an eye to a vital final game against Red Bull, Chivas enjoys a margin of error. It’s hard to say who gets the advantage from that. Home and away records don’t reveal much either, as both sides have failed to distinguish themselves. Still, if one combines Chivas’ somewhat feeble away record with some major injury issues - there’s Juan Francisco Palencia’s continued absence and question marks over Ante Razov - it seems this is a game for a relatively healthy Kansas City team to lose - though one gets the sense they’re all too capable of doing so.

Prediction: KANSAS CITY WIZARDS WIN - and Chivas keeps its powder dry for the post-season by giving their stars time to heal.

Chicago Fire v. Columbus Crew

TV: Fox Soccer Channel, October 7, 5:30 p.m.

Fire: Overall, 12-10-8, 44 pts.; Home, 8-3-4; Form, WWWLWWWL

Crew: Overall, 7-14-9, 30 pts.; Away, 3-8-3; Form, WLLTW

Let it be noted that the league and their broadcast partners have, for the second week running, opted to air the weekend’s least interesting game. The absence of immediate post-season implications aside, though, this one contains a big post-season angle: Was Chicago’s loss last weekend to Red Bull a fluke? If the Fire can’t dispatch the Crew - and, no disrespect to the latter, but they ought to do so comfortably - the answer to that question inches toward going live. After that, though, there’s not much to add: Chicago is the better team, on paper and off.

Prediction: CHICAGO FIRE WINS - or faces the same scrutiny DC United has recently.

Real Salt Lake v. Houston Dynamo

(MLS Preview)

RSL: Overall, 10-13-7, 39 pts.; Home, 6-4-5; Form, LTWLT

Dynamo: Overall, 11-8-11, 44 pts.; Away, 3-5-7; Form, LLWTTW

Houston’s fortunes have raised a bit of late; Brian Ching’s “bike-ride” officially sent the Dynamo into a Western Conference post-season mix that features no rock-solid, never mind great, teams; naturally, that means the path to the finals is open to all players. Valiantly as they’ve fought, Real Salt Lake’s struggle to jump into the same hopper hasn’t gone well of late and the sad fact is, it’s going to take something special to beat Houston. On the upside, RSL’s veteran players - Jason Kreis, Chris Klein, and Jeff Cunningham - have stepped up lately and Eddie Robinson’s absence through suspension punches a big hole in the Houston back-line that held off DC United last weekend. But, as Paddock Talk’s piece points out, someone on RSL need to find a way to the goal and the win because an entirely plausible combination of results could eliminate the Utahans from the second post-season in as many years.

Prediction: REAL SALT LAKE WINS - yeah, I’m still on the "miracle bandwagon."

Colorado Rapids v. Red Bull New York

(MLS Preview)

Rapids: Overall, 11-13-6, 39 pts.; Home, 9-3-3; Form, WLWTLL

Red Bull: Overall, 8-11-11, 35 pts.; Away, 1-8-6; Form, LLWLLW

Call this one proof that a game infused with dramatic potential can still somehow lay an egg in terms of interest. With both teams showing zero interest in storming into the playoffs, there’s no reason to expect much of them in the post-season - assuming they make it. This one is all about regular season bragging rights - and undeserved ones at that - the simple right to say, "We are not one of the four worst teams in MLS." Obviously, the combination of home and away records points toward a result, though absences through suspension - Colorado has Clint Mathis missing, while Red Bull’s Marvell Wynne will sit this one out -point in the other direction, particularly if the “probable” Terry Cooke can run at the hole left by Wynne in Red Bull's backline.

Prediction: COLORADO RAPIDS WIN - or, rather, the altitude in Denver does; and expect a 1-0 scoreline whichever way this goes...that or a tie.

Anyway, that’s what I’m seeing this week. I’ll add MLS’s previews when they come available (look for them Friday), which will contain the latest injury information. And, between now and Friday, I’ll add anything I come across that looks significant.

Date

Wed 10/04/06, 10:05 am EST