MLBQR: AL East
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by user Tylersalt
Tylersalt's Quarter-of-the-Season Reports!
Part 1: Al East
1st Place: Boston Red Sox (29-13)
The Red Sox have been playing better ball than almost everyone. Even with Josh Beckett's move to the disabled list, the pitching has been superb. Tim Wakefield has been quite good, and Daisuke Matsuzaka seems to have finally hit his stride. The bullpen has also been just about lights out, with Jonathan Papelbon doing his thing and Hideki Okajima has emerged as a fantastic option for setting him up or doing the backup closer gig.
As far as the offense is concerned, not everyone has been clicking at the same time, but they're mashing the ball anyway. I don't think they're going to come close to the kind of offense they put together over the past few years, but they've certainly done enough to put up the AL's best record. The Red Sox own the AL's best record, batting average, starting ERA, and bullpen ERA.
Best and Worst by WPA:
- Hitters: David Ortiz (0.75), Julio Lugo (-0.38)
- Pitchers: Jonathan Papelbon (1.43), Joel Pineiro (-0.21)
2nd Place: Baltimore Orioles (20-24, 10.0 GB)
The Orioles starting pitching seems to be headed in the right direction. Young Jeremy Guthrie has been a pleasant surprise, especially his performance against the Red Sox on May 13th, which was screwed by the bullpen. Daniel Cabrera certainly seems to be finally heading in the right direction, and Erik Bedard remains one of the more consistent starters in the Junior Circuit. Chris Ray has 12 saves, but a 4.12 ERA reflects some of the shakiness he's had this season.
The offense has been struggling to a certain extent. Perennial All-Star candidate Miguel Tejada has a .311/.366/.383 line, so he's getting on base but hasn't had a whole lot of power (only 8 extra base hits). Ramon Hernandez has been playing fairly well since coming back from injury, and Brian Roberts has 13 stolen bases so far. Nick Markakis is third on the team in slugging percentage and leads the team in RBIs. They're headed in the right direction so far, but they still have a long way to go.
Best and Worst by WPA:
- Hitters: Ramon Hernandez (0.31), Melvin Mora (-0.85)
- Pitchers: Jeremy Guthrie (0.64), Kurt Birkins (-0.80)
3rd Place: Toronto Blue Jays (19-24, 10.5 GB)
The Blue Jays have started to put it together after struggling mightily with injuries over the first month and a half of the season. They haven't been as devastated as the Yankees (see below), but they've definitely had their share of trouble. They endured a nine-game losing streak earlier this season, and are still climbing out of that hole. They've lost closer B.J. Ryan for the season to Tommy John surgery, and ace Roy Halladay is currently on the disabled list with a bout of acute appendicitis. Their most consistent hitter so far, Troy Glaus, has also had two DL stints already this season. Glaus' WPA leads the team at 1.53, over a full point more than Frank Thomas in second place. Thomas, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells have all underpeformed to a certain extent so far this season, but they're definitely starting to put together a run of sorts.
The very fact that they gave two starts to the horrifically bad Victor Zambrano should speak to the way that they've been struggling this season. General Manager J.P. Ricciardi's spending spree over the past few seasons has not paid off the way they would have liked up in Toronto, a second place finish last season over the Boston Red Sox notwithstanding.
Best and Worst by WPA:
- Hitters: Troy Glaus (1.53), Jason Smith (-0.78)
- Pitchers: Jeremy Accardo (1.00), B.J. Ryan (-1.49)
4th Place: New York Yankees (18-23, 10.5 GB)
What hasn't been written already about the Yankees' struggles so far this season? Of course, the biggest culprit has been the bullpen, with Brian Bruney their most valuable reliever at a 0.59 WPA. The usually dominant Mariano Rivera has been anything but so far, with a -1.31 WPA, a 1-3 record, and a decidedly un-Mo-like 6.59 ERA. Injuries have absolutely decimated the starting pitchers, with Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Karstens all spending time on the DL so far this year. I'd be surprised if Pavano throws another pitch in pinstripes, but the others are either already contributing again or definitely will at some point this season. The big problem has been that the AAA replacements they've had to rely on have not performed as well as the brass in the Bronx would have liked them to.
The offense has been a tale of two teams. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are mashing the ball, but people that they really need to contribute like Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano, and Melky Cabrera have just plain not, and that hurts them quite a bit. If they can't outslug their opponents, which they haven't been able to for the most part, their pitching staff is going to doom them to mediocrity this season, or maybe worse. You have to imagine GM Brian Cashman is already scouring the trade market, looking for pitching help, but pickings are slim and they've got a heck of a hole to work themselves out of.
Best and Worst by WPA:
- Hitters: Derek Jeter (1.65), Bobby Abreu (-1.43)
- Pitchers: Brian Bruney (0.59), Mariano Rivera (-1.27)
5th Place: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (18-25, 11.5 GB)
Poor Tampa Bay. Manny's adopted team can't seem to get it together. They've got reams of young talent, with B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, and Elijah Dukes coming in this season and making immediate impacts, but their pitching just can't keep up. Even the emergence of James Shields, who leads the team in strikeouts, and Al Reyes, who has 12 saves and leads the team in WPA (1.93) haven't been able to overcome the trio of Edwin Jackson, Casey Fossum, and Jae Seo at the back of the rotation, who have a combined WPA of -4.41 and combined record of 5-13.
The Devil Rays continually seem just one or two years away from being real competitors, and this season doesn't seem to be any exception so far. If I had to bet on the greatest long-term success of any of the AL East teams, I'd pick the Red Sox. But if I had to bet on the second-greatest long-term success of any of the AL East teams, I'd pick the Devil Rays. They really have to fix up that rotation to have any shot to move up in the division.
Best and Worst by WPA:
- Hitters: B.J. Upton (1.01), Dioner Navarro (-1.24)
- Pitchers: Al Reyes (1.93), Jae Seo (-1.52)
Coming Up Next: The NL East!
