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The Final Four Is A Perfect Fit
For the first time in history, all four #1-seeds have made it through the first four rounds of the tournament unscathed to collectively arrive at the Final Four. On one side of the bracket, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks will compete for the right to play for the national championship. On the other side of the bracket, the Memphis Tigers and UCLA Bruins will do battle.
These four programs have proven all season that they deserve this chance. The NCAA selection committee agreed when they handed out top seeds to each. The numbers agree as well. Though I will not release a complete poll until after every game in the tournament is played, my real-time rankings have Memphis (37-1) ranked #1, followed by UCLA (35-3), North Carolina (36-2), and Kansas (35-3). The top ten is rounded out by Wisconsin (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Texas (31-7, exited in the Elite Eight), Tennessee (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Duke (28-6, exited in the second round), Louisville (27-9, exited in the Elite Eight), and Georgetown (28-6, exited in the second round).
In addition, I have two other ranking models that I use, though I do not release them publicly. They are referred to as the Q-score indicator and P-score indicator. These models were designed specifically for predicting game outcomes. At present, Memphis is #1 in the Q-score rankings (.7676), followed by North Carolina (.7559), Kansas (.7362), and UCLA (.7256). Memphis is also ranked #1 by the P-score indicator (.7691), followed by Kansas (.7651), North Carolina (.7559), and UCLA (.7455).
No matter how you look at it, the four most deserving programs will be competing in San Antonio for the National Championship.
