Let's Slow Down A Little Bit
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by Tmizzle
Barry Bonds is a mere 4 home runs away from breaking Hank Aaron's all-time HR record.
Everybody knows this.
Alex Rodriguez is a mere 260 HRs away from Hank Aaron's record.
This guy appears to think A-Rod is a mortal lock to end up with the most all-time HR.
I'm not saying Rodriguez won't end up with more home runs than Bonds when all is said and done. I personally think it's very likely that will happen. But talking like it's set in stone already? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
If Bonds retires after this season, he'll probably end up with around 760-765 home runs. If he plays next year (which I think is more likely), you can add another 20 (at least) to his total. So when he retires, I expect him to do so with around 780 career home runs.
A-Rod is only 31, and he's having the best season of his career. He currently has 31 home runs in 86 team games. I figure that he'll finish with 56 at the end of 2007. That would put his career total at 520. I don't expect Rodriguez to hit 60 home runs every year. I think it's probable he'll hit an average of 45 home runs a season for the next 6 years (not unreasonable, considering he's averaged 43 home runs so far in his career). If that's the case, he'll be at 778 at the end of 2013. That's six full seasons from now. Granted, he'll only be 38 at that point, and so I fully expect him to pass Bonds in early 2014.
Like I said, it's very likely A-Rod will end up being the all-time HR king. But by no means is it a stone-cold lock. Well, unless you're Gene Wojciechowski, who says, "The question isn't whether Rodriguez will pass Bonds in the home run speed lane, but when."
Seriously?
I can remember this one fella, I think he's still playing, who hit a ton of home runs in a very short amount of time. Everyone just about crowned that guy the new home run king. His name is Ken Griffey Jr., and when he was A-Rod's age, he had 460 home runs. Then what happened? He became plagued by injuries, and he's now 38 and has hit 126 HR in the past 5 and a half seasons.
I'm not saying that's what will happen. I said above that I believe Rodriguez will pass everyone on his way to the top of the home run ladder. I just want people to calm down a little bit. Stop acting like something that could happen 6 years from now is an inevitable event. Baseball is a strange game, and in the spirit of Denny Green, A-ROD IS WHO I THOUGHT HE WAS! IF YOU WANT TO CROWN HIM, THEN CROWN HIS ASS!
