Kosuke Fukudome and the New York Mets
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by DNL
Last week, Rotoworld made a bold suggestion -- one I thought about and immediately rejected. Their idea: The Mets should sign free agent RF Kosuke Fukudome.
In retrospect, I think this is good advice.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors analyzes teams by breaking down their needs and their luxuries, and then merges the two to find a plan of attack. When I first drafted my plan for the 2008 Mets, I plugged Lastings Milledge into right field and moved on -- after all, with Moises Alou coming back (I hope) and with Milledge and Carlos Gomez in the mix, corner OF is not a "need" for the Mets. But with Milledge as, effectively, a glorified rookie, and Gomez even more so, corner OF is hardly a luxury.
But the real reason I glossed over Fukudome is because I never really thought the Mets would take a stab at him. Early buzz suggests otherwise, so, here it is: The Case for Kosuke Fukudome.
Fukudome's Japanese stats compare favorably to Akinori Iwamura. In 2006, Fukudome slugged 31 home runs, had 104 RBI, and had 174 hits in 578 plate apperances. Iwamura, in 2006 (again, in Japan) hit 32 home runs, had a mere 77 RBI, and had 170 hits in 621 plate appearances. RBI being a function of one's team, and with Fukudome two years older, it seems that the two are similar players.
However, that misses two huge differences:
- Fukudome had 47 doubles; Iwamura had 27
- Fukudome's OBP/SLG were .438/.653; Iwamura's were .389/.544, -- 50 and 100 points lower, respectively
Iwamura's OBP dropped from .389 to .359 when he came to the U.S., while his slugging fell off a ridiculous 133 points. Basically, what happened was this: His power evaporated, and homers turned into outs. Imagine that, instead of hitting a mere 7 home runs, thirteen of those long-ish fly balls that turned into outs instead made it over the fence. The results:
- His BA would have jumped from .285 to .311, due to the additional hits.
- His OBP would have jumped from .359 to .381.
- His SLG would have jumped from .411 to .517.
That accounts for most of his drop-off. Let's say that Fukudome does something similar. He's probably therefore reasonably expected to put up a .390 OBP and a .520 SLG, and that may be pessimistic. He'd be a walks-and-doubles machine with solid defense from right field. To put that in perspective, he'd put up numbers similar to what Aaron Rowand put up last year, in a career year. Rowand is another free agent outfielder (who is a mere three days younger), but is probably more of a risk than Fukudome.
A high OBP, plus-SLG, solid defender in the outfield is a good fit for the Mets. In fact, it's what I am hoping they'll get from Lastings Milledge -- in 2010.
But what if we could turn Milledge into a "luxury", to borrow a term from Dierkes? Then what could the Mets do?
With Fukudome on board and taking the #2 hole, the Mets lineup is incredibly deep -- Reyes leads off, Beltran hits #3, Wright cleanup, and Alou and Delgado filling up the middle of the order. Ruben Gotay, if his .295/.351.421 line as a 24 year old can be maintained (or improved on!) makes for a plus-hitter in the #7 hole, and really gives the Mets lineup pop from top to (near-)bottom.
Second, the Mets would have a Mike Pelfrey/Milledge/Aaron Heilman package to shop around. This would be near the top of the heap when it came to available prospect packages, and could command a sizable bounty. Johan Santana may not even be out of the question.
While Mets fans are rightfully snakebitten by former Japanese imports, this one fits in nicely and frees up the assets the Mets need to avoid being a doppleganger of last year. Fukudome to the Mets, anyone?
