Kicker Rankings
| 11
|
I am not a big dude. In fact, I am the exact opposite of rugged and intimidating; according to my thesaurus’ antonyms that would make me delicate or fragile. Not only is Martin Gramatica the NFL player I most resemble in terms of stature, but he also would probably kick my ass in any sort of physical altercation. You may be wondering why I am taking my own masculinity to task—publicly for that matter—but I assure you it is for good reason. You see, this past weekend I was over at a friend’s house watching the Red Sox game and drinking a few beers.
After the game ended, I stuck around the house until about 1 in the morning, before getting ready to walk back to my place, which is about 45 minutes from my friend’s. The people I was hanging out with were a bit flabbergasted that I was walking such a distance to get home, but I told them that among my favorite things in life are late night walks, with the music from my Ipod serving as the soundtrack for my life during those precious moments. Now, if late night walks with an Ipod sound a bit too much like midnight walks on the beach for you, rest assured that my soundtrack consists of AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell,” Korn’s “Freak on a Leash,” Eminem’s “Lose Yourself,” and the video of Ozzy Osbourne biting a bat’s head off, which plays between each song.
Anyways, my friend is moving into downtown Boston soon from a more residential neighborhood and is trying to get rid of as many unnecessary things as possible. To my delight, one of these things was a small, red wooden Red Sox bat, the type you can buy at the ballpark for $10, along with your $4 bottle of water. I graciously accepted my friend’s gift and headed out the door. As I exited the house, my friend Rachel—thinking for her entire gender—expressed concern over walking late at night with a walkman on, for fear of being mugged.
I reassured her that I always kept a lookout for anything suspicious and made my way out the door. As I began my walk home and digested the conversation from seconds before, it dawned on me—I was walking around the streets of Boston at 1 in the morning with a small wooden bad in my hand. Passing by the drunken college students and young professionals that lined the streets, it became clear that I was not the one who was worried about getting mugged. People were likely thinking one of two things: 1) This kid is ready to crack some skulls, or 2) This kids is so afraid of walking on the streets of Boston at 1am by himself that he has to carry around a little wooden bat for protection.
Realizing that my sketch-o-meter had officially reached R-Kelly with a 15-year-old proportions, I tried a variety of techniques to reduce my level of sketchiness. The bat wouldn’t fit in my pockets. Tucking it into my belt was not an option, as chafing is among my least favorite activities, along with castration and holding my breath until the Raiders offense scores (otherwise known as death by asphyxiation). Something had to be done before some woman, fearing for her life, proactively slapped me in the face with her purse and ran off screaming.
I finally settled on holding the bat by the barrel, which brought me down to wrestling with Pacman Jones on the aforementioned sketch-o-meter. Now making my way onto the back stretch of my walk home, with its numerous watering holes and belligerent patrons, I passed a couple as they walked by hand-in-hand. The dude’s gaze did not stray from the bat in my left hand from the moment our paths were destined to cross, and the couple’s walking trajectory detoured around a street pole that gave them more protection from Martin Gramatica with a little wooden bat.
Next up was a group of bigger dudes, the type that doesn’t have any interest in ceding control of the middle of the sidewalk. Surprisingly, they split like the Red Sea when I came strolling through. Who knew a little red bat was the only thing standing between me and Moses. I started enjoying my newfound powers of intimidation and twirled the bat in my hands jubilantly. For a few seconds, I actually contemplated carrying a small bat with me at all times. Just as these thoughts were planting themselves in my mind, I felt a crack and lost consciousness.
When I woke up a few minutes later someone was hovering over me, visibly shaken. When my double vision subsided I found myself staring face-to-face with Martin Gramatica, who was holding a metal softball bat in one hand. “What the hell?” I asked. “Sorry, guy,” he said, “I couldn’t sworn you were trying to steal my purse.” On second thought, maybe I am more rugged than Martin.
If Martin was upset about one thing, it’s likely the fact that kickers are not valued in fantasy football. I have always been a strong proponent of using matchups to dictate which kicker I would use on any given week, adding and dropping them like they were hot. It worked out fairly well for me last year, as I finished in the top-middle in kicker scoring in most of my leagues. But, if you’re serious about fantasy football, every position should be viewed as an opportunity to gain an incremental advantage over your opponent. Think of having the best kicker as a way of turning the two-point gap between the 5th and 10th best running back into a push. Be sure to check your league rules too, as some put more value on kickers by adding extra points for the distance of each FG.
Lucky for you, I have created a formula for analyzing kickers, which consists of rating the offense, field-goal offense, and accuracy of a kicker on a scale of 1 to 10 and taking the sum of the numbers. To clarify, Offense is the potency of the offense (this accounts for touchdowns and, thus, extra points), field goal offense is a clever word I made up that has to do with red zone efficiency. Teams that have worse TD% in the red zone have more field goal opportunities.
A case in point is the Lions from last year, as their kicker Jason Hanson finished 6th in the league in scoring (and top 5 in most fantasy leagues) despite a 21st-ranked offense. This was a result of the team’s third-worst TD% in the red zone. We will call this rating the Field Goal Quotient (FGQ) because it sounds intelligent. I am also adding a fourth category for distance for those of you with scoring rules that give extra points for longer field goals (assuming FG < 39 yards = 3, 40-49 = 4, 50+ = 5). FGQ+ includes this distance rating. For those of you with a lot of extra time like myself, take the rating and insert your own projections if you don’t like mine. I’ll provide the links down below for the statistics. With that, here are the top 16 kickers based on my 2007 predictions with rankings in parentheses—break a leg!
Offense + Field Goal Offense + Accuracy = FGQ + Distance = FGQ+
Adam Viniateri, Colts (1) FGQ = 25 (10 + 5 + 10) (2) FGQ+ = 31
Comments: Vinatieri is rated as the top kicker on most draft board, however he does not have the range of his younger days, having failed to hit from over 50 yards last year. That said, he is still in the upper echelon of the little people of football
Matt Stover, Ravens (2) FGQ = 24 (7 + 9 + 8) (5) FGQ+ = 30
Comments: Stover is a very consistent performer. Don’t expect him to hit 93% of his attempts like last year, but count on more total attempts as the offense falters in the red zone.
Jeff Wilkins, Rams (3) FGQ = 23 (8 + 7 + 8) (1) FGQ+ = 33
Comments: Top kicker in most fantasy leagues with additional points for yardage. He is a total stud.
Mike Nugent, Jets (3) FGQ = 23 (5 + 8 + 9) (2) FGQ+ = 31
Comments: This may come as a surprise to some, but Nugent is a stud in waiting. After struggling in week 1 last year, he missed only one more field goal all season and none after week 8. He didn’t get many tries from distance, but converted those he did. Look for the Jets offense to put more faith in him from long range this season.
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (5) FGQ = 23 (10 + 5 + 8) (14) FGQ+ = 25
Comments: A pick by many to ascend the ranks, Gostkowski is solid in formats that don’t offer additional points for yardage. In those that do, stay away from him, as he only had 5 attempts of over 40 yards last year. Belichik also likes to play the field position game, meaning even with Gostkowski’s improvement he is not likely to see a significant increase in long-range field goals.
Jason Hanson, Lions (6) FGQ = 22 (7 + 9 + 6) (2) FGQ+ = 31
Comments: Hanson’s been around for God knows how long, but he is a consistent performer year in and year out. A few years ago it looked like he was on his way out, but he rebounded and put up very good fantasy numbers last year, including solid range. With the improved offense of the Lions, look for a slight improvement on last year’s numbers.
Nate Kaeding, Chargers (7) FGQ = 21 (9 + 4 + 8) (9) FGQ+ = 26
Comments: I’m not sold on Kaeding, particularly his penchant for choking. He is part of a great offense, but I see him struggling this year as compared to last.
Robbie Gould, Bears (7) FGQ = 21 (8 + 8 + 5) (9) FGQ+ = 26
Comments: I consider Robbie Fool’s Gould. While you may think I say that just to be clever, there is not way he can continue the production of last year. He plays in harsh conditions and should mirror the Bears collapse. Look for him to pull a Neil Rackers of last year and fall back down to earth.
John Kasay, Panthers (9) FGQ = 20 (4 + 8 + 8) (5) FGQ+ = 30
Comments: Kasay is the king of the long ball, so he’s probably got no problem getting the proverbial chicks. As far as getting you some points, he’ll do a decent job in FGQ leagues and an above-average job in those that love his long ball.
Neil Rackers, Cardinals (9) FGQ = 20 (8 + 5 + 7) (7) FGQ+ = 28
Comments: I look for Rackers to pull a bit of a reverse flop this year. Arizona did not hesitate to send him out last year for long field goals, even though he was only 1 for 7 from 50+ yards. He should hit a few more this year and, with the Cardinals offense looking up, Rackers should also get more overall opportunities to put it through the uprights.
Ryan Lindell, Bills (9) FGQ = 20 (5 + 8 + 7) (7) FGQ+ = 28
Comments: I see the Bills offense improving slightly as a result of JP Losman’s development, which should lead to more field goal attempts, but you can’t expect him to hit on 92% of his opportunities again since that is well above his career average of 79.5%.
Shayne Graham, Bengals (9)FGQ = 20 (9 + 5 + 6) (9) FGQ+ = 26
Comments: I see Graham as a potential flop. He is in a stacked offense, but was not sharp all last year. That said, he still plays for the high-octane Bengals and if he struggles, just drop him.
Jason Elam, Broncos (9) FGQ = 20 (7 + 5 + 8) (14) FGQ+ = 25
Comments: Nothing exciting here, Mr. Consistent. I hate the Broncos, so I hope he is terrible. Shank!
David Akers, Eagles (9) FGQ = 20 (7 + 6 + 7) (15) FGQ+ = 24
Comments: Has seen a drop in performance the past two years, so he may continue that dive. Still, he plays on a solid offense that scores points no matter who is in the lineup.
Olindo Mare, Saints (15) FGQ = 19 (8 + 6 + 5) (9) FGQ+ = 26
Comments: Mare struggled terribly last year to the tune of hitting only 72.2% of his attempts. This year, he moves into a dome where he should up his percentage on regular attempts and those from long range. Look for solid numbers but nothing spectacular.
Joe Nedney, 49ers (15) FGQ = 19 (6 + 8 + 5) (15) FGQ+ = 24
Comments: I love Nedney for hitting the field goal in the 1999 season that kept the Chiefs out of the playoffs. I hate him for coming back years later and beating the Raiders on a field goal with the 49ers. We have a love/hate relationship.
Josh Scobee, Jaguars (9) FGQ+ = 26
Comments: Scobee is killer from 40-49 yards as 14 of his 26 field goals came from that distance. He should only be used in FGQ+ leagues.
Thanks for reading if you’ve made it this far. Please comment or email us if you’d like, as the Flea Fanatics appreciate any commentary or suggestions you have. Hope these help in your respective drafts.
Peace.
-- Toby Guevin at Flea Fanatics
