Josh Beckett Vs. C.C. Sabathia: The Cy Young Debate
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by Tom Miller
Last night (and probably today, too), there was a debate raging about the 2007 AL Cy Young winner. Kelsdad believes that Josh Beckett should be the winner, and numerous others (myself, Romiezzo, and several others) argued that C.C. Sabathia has had the more impressive season. Because the Cy Young is voted on prior to the beginning of the playoffs, Beckett's dominance in the first two rounds against the Angels and the Indians is irrelevant.
(Side note: Fausto Carmona has had an amazing season also, and he was probably the 3rd-best pitcher in the AL this year. Unfortunately for him, his numbers, while extraordinary, aren't quite on the same level as Beckett and Sabathia.)
Josh Beckett
Beckett, the ace of the team considered to be the best in the major leagues for most of the season, led the majors in wins with 20. However, with wins being a terrible way to evaluate the performance of a pitcher and everything, this is really a side note, more a product of his offense scoring 6.42 runs per game he started. His 1.14 WHIP was good for 5th in the league. His ERA was 6th-best in the AL, a very good 3.27. Among AL pitchers with at least 180 IP, Beckett had a 4,85 K/BB ratio (4th-best), an 8.70 K/9 (6th), a .245 BAA (5th), and 194 Ks (7th).
In addition to these impressive statistics, Beckett was also the best pitcher on a Boston team that was considered by most to be the best team in MLB for most of this year. His "clutchness," which is one of Beckett's very highly touted qualities, didn't really come into play during the regular season.
C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia had a monster year, numbers-wise (and most likely, buffet-wise). His 19 wins were second, despite receiving over a run lower support (5.10 runs per game) than Beckett. Most of his numbers compare well to Beckett's, with a few more Ks (209, good for 5th), a slightly lower ERA of 3.21 (5th in the AL), a higher BAA of .259, and an identical WHIP of 1.14. However, in several important categories, Sabathia outdistances his competition. His 241 IP is not only good for the most in the majors, it's a 40-inning edge over Beckett, who finished with 200 2/3. Sabathia, despite pitching much more than Beckett, gave out fewer walks (37, to 40 for the Boston ace), and his 5.65 K/BB is by far the best among AL starters with at least 180 IP. By pitching the most innings in the majors, Sabathia has been able to pitch effectively late into games, leading to a more rested bullpen for the Indians. I'm not entirely sure that the ability for pitchers to save their bullpen is properly appreciated.
Who Should Win
Sabathia
Why? Because most things (Boston and Cleveland finished with identical records, most of their stats are pretty close) are equal, the numbers that Sabathia has in his favor, especially his walks and innings pitched, are all the more impressive. If I'm a voter, I give Sabathia the edge.
Who Will Win
Beckett
Why? Beckett's had a great season. The numbers he put up have been very impressive. In comparison to Sabathia, however, these numbers are, at least in 2007, second-best. So why does Beckett win? Because of the aforementioned Carmona. Cleveland, with it's two Cy Young candidates, will split the ticket, much the way 2 Democrats running for president would split the vote. (Thanks to Romiezzo for this succinct analogy.)
So, in conclusion, Beckett will win the Cy Young, Sabathia will finish second, and Carmona will finish third. However, Sabathia should win, followed by Beckett and with Carmona bringing up the rear.
