Josh Beckett Is Overrated

That's right, I said it. Josh Beckett is probably the most overvalued pitcher in the American League and the Red Sox will end up regretting the 3 year extension they gave him this year.

Much has been made of the difference in talent level between the AL and the NL over the last few years and perhaps Mr. Beckett is learning that it's true the hard way. In 2003, Beckett pitched 142 innings in 23 starts. He posted a nice 3.04 ERA while allowing 48 earned runs, 9 homeruns, and striking out 152 batters. This season, he has pitched 146.1 innings over 24 starts allowing 80 earned runs and 31 homeruns, making his ERA 4.92, and has only stuck out 120 batters. Heck, last season he pitched 178.2 innings and only allowed 67 runs and 14 homeruns.

As I was thinking of how overrated Beckett is, and how he's built an entire legacy on one game of the 2003 World Series, I thought of another pitcher who signed a 3 year extension as well this year. A pitcher who many questioned giving an extension to while applauding the Beckett extension. I thought of Kelvim Escobar.

So I decided to compare their stats totally expecting the much beloved and lauded over Mr. Beckett's to outshine the seldom heard from Mr. Escobar's. Boy was I wrong.

For the Season
Beckett - 24 GS, 146.1 IP, 4.92 ERA, 80 ER, 31 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
Escobar - 21 GS, 132.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 55 ER, 12 HR, 38 BB, 101 K

As you can see, Escobar's season stats are far and away better than Beckett's. Yes, I realize that Escobar has made 3 fewer starts, but in those 3 starts he would have to surrender an average of 8 runs, 6 homers, and 3 walks to catch up to Beckett's "lofty" numbers.

Ok, so what you say. Beckett was brought in for the big games and to beat the Yankees, White Sox, and A's in the playoffs and help carry this team to the World Series. I agree. He made his reputation on winning the big games and in Boston that's all that matters. Here's how Beckett and Escobar have pitched this season against the three previously mentioned teams.

Versus NYY, CWS, & OAK
Beckett - 5 GS: 3-2, 9.30 ERA
Escobar - 6 GS: 3-1, 2.92 ERA

Once again, Escobar looks to be a much better option against big name clubs in the AL. I also recognize that 5 games is a small sample so I also took a look at any game each pitcher has pitched this season against teams that are currently in the playoff hunt in the AL. After all, games against any of these teams will mean more come September. The teams included are the Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox, A's, Blue Jays, Twins, and the Angels. Both pitchers have pitched 10 games against some combination of these teams.

Versus Playoff Contenders
Beckett - 10 GS: 4-3, 7.34 ERA
Escobar - 10 GS: 6-2, 2.70 ERA

If you take a look at the numbers I think it's obvious that right now Kelvim Escobar is a better pitcher against the contending teams in the AL and he may very well have a bigger positive impact on his team down the stretch than Josh Beckett. Also, Escobar's 3 year extension may turn out to be a much wiser move than Beckett's when all is said and done (and I'm assuming a cheaper one, but I couldn't find exact numbers for either's extension).

Hopefully Young Theo doesn't get too much hate mail three years from now when Hanley Ramirez is starting in the All-Star Game at shortstop and Beckett's a washed up fifth starter on the Indians. (Wow, a Red Sox burn and Indians burn in the final paragraph, now that's what I call an ending!)