Jose Reyes: Proof that OBP is Overrated

I have been having an on-going battle with those who think that baseball is played in a computer spreadsheet. Of particular concern is this love with OBP as the end all and be all stat. However, Jose Reyes must be making the Billy Beane wannabes go crazy. Amongst NL leadoffs hitters he ranks 12th in OBP. However, he ranks #1 in runs scored. Discuss.

Date

Tue 06/20/06, 11:39 am EST

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JuTMSY4Legend

1259 days ago

Score 2

Reyes makes the most of his time on the basepaths. Its no coincidence that he not only ranks first in runs but steals. The man is built for run production...

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JuTMSY4Legend

1259 days ago

Score 3

Plus the mets have the guys to actually drive him in! I Heard batting in front of Wright, Delgado and Beltran will do that for you...

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Awrigh01All-Star

1259 days ago

Score 2

although it is not scientific, its seems that the Mets are unbeatable when Reyes goes on a tear. When he was hot at the beginning of the season, the Mets' offense was ridiculous. The same can be said for the latest road trip.

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DNLLegend

1259 days ago

Score 2

I think that's the point, though, and why MetsJetsDevils is wrong. When Reyes is on a tear, the Mets are great. But he's so often making outs, that he's not on a tear often enough.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1259 days ago

Score -2

That makes no sense. The Mets have the best record in the National League for starters. Second, at the same time that Reyes has a low OBP he is stealing bases and scoring runs. Despite his lower obp, he is the best leadoff hitter in the national league, if nto all of baseball. The only thing the computer simulator baseball fans can do is say that they have plugged the numbers into their computers and that is Ichiro played on the Mets he would be a better leadoff man. Of course I want Jose Reyes to get on base more, but without that, he is proof that you can still be a stellar baseball player, in fact, the best at what you do, without having a stellar OBP.

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ChachiOSUDraft Pick

1259 days ago

Score 2

It helps that he's top 10 in hits, first in SB, and first in triples. With his speed all he has to do is get on and then get one single behind him. Speed kills!

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DNLLegend

1259 days ago

Score 3

He also ranks first in outs.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1259 days ago

Score 1

He ranks first in the NL plate appearances with 329. Clearly that couple with the OPS machines hitting behind him may be masking his OBP deficiency.

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Patrickburke1980All-American

1259 days ago

Score 1

Reyes is the exception to the rule. I still think OBP is critical to a leadoff hitter. The more often you are on base, the more opportunities you will have to score. Plain and simple.

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Awrigh01All-Star

1259 days ago

Score 3

I don't think its that simple though. Speed has to be figured into the equation. Even though John Olerud would get on base frequently his lack of speed would limit his ability to score. If Olerud got to second base with one out. It would take a double to score him. When Reyes gets on base. He can steal a base, break up double plays, and go from first to third on a single, thus dramatically increasing his chance of scoring. If he's on second with no outs, he is most likely going to score.

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CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer

1259 days ago

Score 2

Actually, if you look at the splits for most runs scored for leadoff batters, the top four all have OBPs under .350, and Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal (second and third on that list, respectively), have worse OBPs than Reyes.

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ChachiOSUDraft Pick

1259 days ago

Score 1

In the AL Grady Sizemore bats leadoff and has a .367 OBP. Ichiro is at .414 OBP. Perhaps it's just an NL thing.

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CoreyisarealboyMajor Leaguer

1259 days ago

Score 1

Could very well be.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1259 days ago

Score 4

Here is a way to quantify the impact of the Mets lineup. The player with the highest OBP for a true leadoff hitter this season is Ichiro (.413) Both players currently have 329 plate appearances each (very convenient for comparison).

If we take a players Hits + BB - HR (Eliminates scoring a run for yourself) we find

Ichiro has been on base 128 times this season scoring 50 (54 total - 4 for his own hr). This means he is driven in 39% of the time.

Reyes has been on base 104 times this season scoring 52 (58 total - 6 for his own hr). This means he is driven in 50% of the time.

Consequently it is reasonable to believe if Ichiro was leading off for the Mets he would have scored 64 times to Reyes' 52. Why? Because OBP does matter.

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DNLLegend

1259 days ago

Score 2

64 is a bit too high. Reyes is more likely to get himself into scoring position than Ichiro, and is more likely to score on things like short singles and the like. But your overall point holds, because while 64 is too high, it's not 12 runs too high.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1259 days ago

Score 0

I feel Ichiro's speed and base running is comprable to Reyes, I can't give Reyes an edge there. In all fairness, I didn't look at how many times a guy was HBP or reached base on a fielders choice (to maintain my own sanity). But I think this gives a good estimate of the impact of having some good hitter behind you in the lineup.

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DNLLegend

1259 days ago

Score 2

Oh, definitely. I'm just saying the difference isn't 12 runs. Probably closer to six to ten.

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SteaksammichRed-Shirting

1259 days ago

Score 1

Neifi Perez could lead the league in runs with Beltran, Delgado, and Wright batting behind him. If he were on base more, he'd score more. Simple as that. Congradulations for trying to make the dumbest point I've heard so far today.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1258 days ago

Score -1

You offer nothing of substance with your ad hominim attacks. I doubt Nefi Perez could do what Jose Reyes does. He routinely scores from 1st on doubles, he makes pitchers worry about him on the basepaths. He rallies his team. He gets hits when it matters. Like AWright said, speed completely changes the game. It changes how pitchers approach the next batter. Just out of curiousity, what makes you think that Jose Reyes doesn't effect how well Wright, Delgado and Beltran are playing? Wright and Beltran were there last year and it didn't seem to help?

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SteaksammichRed-Shirting

1258 days ago

Score 0

Usually substance isn't needed when common sense is involved.

What didn't Wright and Beltran help last year? I'm not quite sure what you're saying.

Beltran, Delgado, and even Wright in the minors were all plenty good enough before they had Reyes batting in front of them. He doesn't make them good players. They already are good players.

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PeanMajor Leaguer

1259 days ago

Score 0

MJD, just out of curiosity...if Reyes is the best leadoff hitter in all of baseball...what makes him so much better than Kevin Youkoulis as a leadoff man?

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SteaksammichRed-Shirting

1258 days ago

Score 0

I'll take Youk's numbers over Reyes's numbers any day.

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AlanschechVarsity

1259 days ago

Score 0

Reyes quite simply is the exception. As someone else said, he gets the most out of being on the bases. He just doesn't go quietly when on the basepaths.

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The Other Sports Guy

1259 days ago

Score 1

Reyes at the plate -- you better get him out. WORST walk in baseball

Reyes on the bases -- you don't have a prayer ... chalk up a run for the Mets if he leads-off the inning and gets on base.

I still think Sizemore is the best leadoff guy, but Reyes is the best in the NL.

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MetsJetsDevilsDraft Pick

1258 days ago

Score -1

And thats really the point isn't it? Reyes is the worst walk in baseball which means he won't get walked alot. Its the human element of the game that computers don't account for. You walk a guy like Adam Dunn, even with his miserable batting average because walking him is better than having him hit that big bomb. Walking Reyes is giving up a double. You simply cannot walk him which means he will get walked less.

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

1257 days ago

Score 0

The great thing about this is... the kid just turned 23, and if you watch him (actually live, in person, not on a stat sheet) you can't help but notice that he is improving by leaps and bounds, seemingly before your eyes. His power is vastly improved (7 HR's this year vs. 7 all of last year) at the same time - at at virtually the same rate - that his walks have gone up (29 this year vs. 27 all of last year.)

He is an absolute terror on the basepaths, obviously - but even there, he's become a much more intelligent and aggressive baserunner beyond simply stealing bases - today he went 1st to 3rd on a groundout to 3b. And part of the reason the Mets offense is so much better with him on base is because he drives pitechers absolutely crazy.

Add to that - and I know that we're really talking hitting on this thread, but - he's fast becoming one of the best defensive shortstops in the NL. Plus, the kid is always, always smiling and his energy feeds that team.

I will not be at all surprised if in two years - the '08 season during which he goes from 24-25 yrs old(!) - his stat line looks something like .310/.390 20-25 HR's, 50 2b, 20 3b, 85+ sb, 140+ runs, 80+ rbi and a gold glove.

I've been a baseball fan for 34 years, and I honestly think we are watching the development of a truly elite player.

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

1254 days ago

Score 0

Umm, is anyone watching this kid? (4-5 again today - 3rd time in 5 games. Hitting .561 over a 13 game hitting streak). I know, I know, the thread's dead, but man oh man.

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Jose Reyes: Proof that OBP is Overrated

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