John Schuerholz, Mad Genius -- or just Mad?
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by DNL
Mark Teixeira, Octavio Dotel, and if he had his way, Bronson Arroyo, too. That would be John Schuerholz's July bounty.
Schu transformed a good Atlanta Braves team into a true contender, but at a huge cost -- his top three prospects, per Baseball America, and two other top 20 guys. Oh, and Kyle Davies, who fell out of favor in Atlanta, but is one of those good players with upside. As Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com said, "If you're a Braves fan, you're really have to admire John Schuerholz's willingness to go for broke." Heck, I appreciate it as a Mets fan.
And I think, as of 36 hours ago, it was the right move. But fast-forward to right now -- just after the closing bell of the 2007 trade deadline -- and I think Schuerholz misplayed his hand.
Why?
Because the Boston Red Sox are the 2007 version of the New York Yankees -- that 2 ton gorilla that no one wants to face.
Here's what I think Schuerholz was thinking: strike while the iron is hot. Or, more likely, strike while the rest of the world isn't.
First, the NL is a crapshoot. There are seven teams, other than that Braves, fighting for four playoff spots. Each has a pretty equal shot at those for spots, and with the additions of Teix and Dotel, the Braves suddenly make Mets fans -- like me -- nervous about how strong our hold is on the NL East. If they make the playoffs, the Braves are definitely good enough to get to the World Series.
But that was true for years -- literally, over a decade's worth. What's new now?
The Yankees, with their lineup of All-Stars and their rotation of, well, more All-Stars, probably won't be playing in October.
That means that there's no Death Star waiting to obliterate the competition. No need to pray that something weird happens, like the Tigers pitching surges against a slumping A-Rod. No need for a clutch stolen base from Dave Roberts. The Yankees aren't in the way.
So, Schuerholz probably gambled, that whomever the NL champ faces -- be it the Tigers, Indians, Angels, Mariners, or Red Sox -- the National Leaguers have a real solid chance against. Roll the dice now and your odds of hitting sevens is solid.
Eric Gagne may have changed all that. With the Red Sox bullpen now featuring Gagne, Jonathan Papelbon, and Hideki Okajima; and with Jon Lester back from cancer recoupment, the Red Sox are a beast come October. The bullpen is arguably as good as the John Wetteland/Mariano Rivera tandem from the mid-1990s; their rotation solid especially if Curt Schilling comes back; and their offense a mix of great and Julio Lugo/Coco Crisp. Anyone who faces them in a 2-3-2 series is likely to be overmatched.
Schuerholz may have plotted well enough to get Atlanta to the World Series. But the team he will likely face there won't be as weak as he had hoped.
