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Johan Santana - Cleveland's Rented Mule And Not This Year's AL Cy Young

4
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by Woodsmeister

How Johan Santana looks to the Tribe
How Johan Santana looks to the Tribe

Continuing the argument that C.C. Sabathia should get serious consideration for AL Cy Young and that Johan Santana, while probably statistically superior, should not, I point to yesterday afternoon's Twins-Tribe game.

The Cleveland Indians treated Johan as their personal rented mule once again, beating him for the fifth time this year in six starts. Against Cleveland this year, Santana is 0-5, with one no decision.  Meanwhile, Sabathia pitched 8 innings of scoreless baseball, giving up 6 hits and a walk, striking out 6. 

In 6 starts against Cleveland, Santana has an ERA of 4.38 in 39 innings.  Sabathia, in 5 starts against the Twins is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA.  Three of those wins came head to head against Santana.

The Twins right now are 10.5 games out, and their season is pretty much done.  If Santana does what a Cy Young winner, an ace,  is supposed to do and wins 4 or 5 of those games, Twins fans are talking about making another scrappy run at the AL Central title.  Instead, they're lamenting how this year's team failed to live up to expectations and the Indians are sitting in first place, 6 games up with 25 to go.

Cy Young winners win the big games against their division rivals.  Johan Santana has not. Pure and simple. No matter what other statistic you may want to pull out to support Santana as the best pitcher in the American League, he just hasn't gotten it done in critical games and that has to count for something. Wins matter. Aces are supposed to find a way to win the big games.  Sabathia has. Josh Beckett has. John Lackey has. Santana has not.

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Tmil42AAA-er
822 days ago
Score 1+-
I would argue that the Cy Young goes to the best pitcher in each league. Santana has been victimized by an unusually high HR rate (he's allowed the most HR of any pitcher in baseball). Despite this, he has a lower ERA than Sabathia, a higher strikeout total (203-182), a better WHIP (1.06-1.16). His performances against another team ahead of the Twins in the standings is much better. Against the Tigers, he has a 3.12 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 26 innings, and the Twins only hit .240 against him.

Wins matter? Sure they do, for the team. For starting pitchers, wins are a dumb way to evaluate pitcher performance. Daisuke Matsuzaka gave up 7 ER last night, and still got the win. Wins are team statistics.

In 3 starts this year against the Yankees, Josh Beckett has gone 1-1 with a 5.49 ERA and Yankee batters are hitting .353 against him. I wouldn't put him in this to prove your point.
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WoodsmeisterVarsity Captain
822 days ago
Score 0+-
You may claim that wins are a dumb way to evaluate pitchers, and to some extent you are correct. Wins are often a matter of luck and run support. However, the best pitchers win the big games against the other team's ace. You just can't ignore the fact that although Santana has all those dominant stats, he's now 14-11. You also can't ignore that Cy Young voters consider wins.

If it were just a matter of which pitcher had the best statistics, we should just pick a statistic (Runs Against, WHIP, K/9) and declare the pitcher who wins that category the best pitcher and be done with it.

Santana is a great pitcher. No question. However, he's not this year's AL Cy Young winner.
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KelsdadAll-Star
821 days ago
Score 0+-
Most great pitchers allow alot of homers, so that in itself is an insignificant stat.
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Tmil42AAA-er
822 days ago
Score 1+-
You're right, he's not going to win the Cy Young this year. And I don't think he should. My point is that I don't think Sabathia should win it either. Sure, there's something to be said about beating another team's ace. But the Indians have a much better offensive team than the Twins, so when two pitchers of Sabathia's and Santana's caliber match up, it comes down to which team has a better offense. Sabathia has been better against the Twins than Santana has been against the Indians, but Santana's been better against everybody else.
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WoodsmeisterVarsity Captain
822 days ago
Score 0+-
If, indeed, the cliche is true that good pitching beats good hitting, shouldn't the better pitcher win virtually every critical game?
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Kwitt11Varsity Captain
822 days ago
Score 0+-
And is there any proof that the cliche is true? I haven't seen any...
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WoodsmeisterVarsity Captain
822 days ago
Score 0+-
Any proof that the cliche is not true?
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Tmil42AAA-er
821 days ago
Score 0+-
Well, Greg Maddux just won at Chase Field for the first time ever, in 11 tries. I'd argue he's a decent enough pitcher, and yet he is just now winning in Arizona. Good pitching doesn't always beat good hitting, or even bad hitting sometimes.
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Kwitt11Varsity Captain
821 days ago
Score 0+-
Last year, the Cardinals' bad hitting beat the Tigers' good pitching. In 2002, the Angels' good hitting beat the Giants' good pitching. And why am I trying to prove it untrue when it has never been proven true in the first place?
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KelsdadAll-Star
821 days ago
Score 0+-
Maddux hates pitching in Arizona. Dome, doesn't like the mound, etc. While its true the Dbacks have had a few good hitting teams, there haven't been enough to justify Maddux' career record against them.
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