J Cunningham's Projected Field of 65
| 16
|
by user J Cunningham
Okay, pardon me while I try my best Joe Lunardi impression, but the excitement over March Madness, coupled with the disappointment of missing my prediction of Old Dominion over Virginia Commonwealth in the Colonial Athletic Association final last night, has me thinking about the job the Selection Committee has this coming Sunday and who the 65 teams who'll get to fight for a trip to Atlanta will be.
But before I give the conference-by-conference breakdown of this year's NCAA field, I must point out a couple very important details:
#1: I am not giving out seeds or setting up first-round matchups. That's for the highly-paid Lunardi to do. Give me an ESPN salary and I might start doing the same.
#2: Any RPI and SOS numbers I use are taken from collegerpi.com. The list I used was updated as of March 5 at 7:05 AM.
#3: In conferences with more than one bid, the automatic bid winner will be in bold. Teams that have already punched their free ride will also be italicized, while other auto winners are merely my predictions (take them for what they're worth; I did get the CAA champ wrong).
#4: There are not necessarily the 65 teams I think should get in; this is a list of the 65 teams I think will get in. Some editorializing has been done (I have three bids coming out of the CAA and another four out of the Missouri Valley), but there are a few teams on this list I think have no business dancing this year, yet will likely get the nod anyway.
Okay, enough talking...time to unveil the 65 teams I think are going to the NCAA tournament, conference-by-conference.
America East -- Albany
Atlantic 10 -- Xavier
ACC -- North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech
Atlantic Sun -- Belmont
Big 12 -- Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M
Big East -- Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova
Big Sky -- Weber State
Big South -- Winthrop
Big Ten -- Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State
Big West -- Long Beach State
CAA -- Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Conference USA -- Memphis
Horizon -- Butler
Ivy -- Penn
MAAC -- Niagra
Mid-Continent -- Oral Roberts
MAC -- Akron
MEAC -- Delaware State
Missouri Valley -- Creighton, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Bradley
Mountain West -- UNLV, BYU, Air Force
NEC -- Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley -- Eastern Kentucky
Pac-10 -- UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC
Patriot -- Bucknell
SEC -- Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Southern -- Davidson
Southland -- Sam Houston State
SWAC -- Jackson State
Sun Belt -- Arkansas State
WCC -- Gonzaga
WAC -- Nevada
So there you have it; the 65 teams I think will be duking it out for a trip to the Final Four and a shot at the national championship. The Big East leads the way with eight potential bids, while the ACC gets seven (they want nine, but how about showing me nine teams above .500 in league play first) and the Big Ten sends six. The Pac-10 will send five and the SEC will send four -- all from the East Division.
Again, this is not who I think should be in the tournament -- otherwise, Duke, Syracuse and Purdue wouldn't be on this list. Then again, every ranked team is on my list, because despite certain biases and other facts (Duke went a pedestrian 8-8 in-conference this year), I have trouble keeping a ranked team out of the tournament. So, Duke, Air Force and USC will likely get bids.
I gave Georgia Tech a bid, despite its 8-8 ACC record, because of its RPI of 34 and its SOS of 25. The Yellow Jackets do have a few quality wins, including one at Memphis and a season sweep of Clemson. Syracuse gets a bid from me simply because I expect the Orange to make some noise in the Big East tournament. They won't win it, but time and again we see major programs on the bubble secure their spot with a conference tourney win or two. Same goes for iffy Purdue and Michigan State, but not Iowa -- an RPI of 83 won't get you a bid, I don't care who you are.
But what I really want to talk about are the four bids I gave to the Missouri Valley and the three I gave to the CAA. Anyone who saw ESPN last night knows VCU secured its berth (and good thing, too; that 51 RPI and 133 SOS would've made an at-large dicey at best), but what about Old Dominion and Drexel, both of which fell in the semis? Well, let's look at the resumes:
ODU (24-8, 15-3 CAA): The Monarchs are 39th in the RPI after their semifinal drubbing to George Mason, but had won 12 straight to that point -- and the committee likes to see how a team closes out a season. ODU also boasts a huge road win over possible No. 2 seed Georgetown, and has gone 4-2 against the conference's other top teams. ODU split with Hofstra and VCU, while sweeping the season series with Drexel in convincing fashion. None of ODU's nonconference losses -- Marist, Vrigina Tech, Clemson, Winthrop -- look all that bad, and their loss to James Madison (RPI 301) was on the road, and everyone loses to a conference bottom-feeder every once in a while.
Drexel (23-8, 13-5 CAA): Drexel does have 15 true road wins, including some very nice ones at Creighton, Syracuse and Villanova. But the Monarchs are one point better in the RPI and have a better SOS (90 to the Dragons' 96). Also, ODU swept Drexel in the season series and the Dragons finished fourth in the CAA while the Monarchs finished second behind VCU. I think both ODU and Drexel deserve bids, but if I had to choose one over the other, I'd give the nod to ODU because of the head-to-head.
What about Hofstra, you ask? Granted, the Pride finished third in the CAA, ahead of Drexel, but...an RPI of 71 and a SOS of 147 (not to mention a quarterfinal loss in the conference tournament) will not sway the committee. Hofstra got jobbed last year, but the team's NIT trip this year will be well-deserved.
We know Southern Illinois' going to the NCAA tourney despite losing in the MVC final to Creighton. After all, the Salukis are ranked 11th in both polls and that top-10 RPI (sixth, to be exact) will be impossible to ignore. But what about:
Missouri State (22-10, 12-6 MVC): I always give a team that won 20 games at least a glance, and the more I looked at Missouri State, the more I liked the thought of handing out an at-large. Its RPI of 38 is better than ODU and Drexel, so seeing as how I think they both should be in, stands to reason Missouri State should be as well. However, this will be a nervous week for this team; a lot will depend on how many upsets there are in the tournaments to come. Missouri State, ODU and Drexel are all nervously on the bubble, though I think they should all be in.
Bradley (21-12, 10-8 MVC): The Indians have two things to hang their hat on: a nice road win over CAA champion VCU and a SOS of 19. Bradley did lose the season series to both Southern Illinois and Creighton, but none of those losses look that bad (Bradley nearly pulled the road upset over the nationally-ranked Salukis in the season finale, 53-51). This could just be my mid-major bias talking, but I think Bradley deserves a shot at the Big Dance.
I'm fairly certain I left someone out who's deserving, so if you disagree with my predictions, feel free to post your arguments here. One of my favorite parts of March Madness is debating who is and isn't deserving of an NCAA bid, and I would be more than happy to do some friendly debating leading up to Selection Sunday.
Oh, and one more thing: If I'm right, and the CAA gets three and the MVC gets four, will we see Billy Packer's head explode on national television? Jim Nantz might have to get a new suit... '
