J Cunningham's 2006-2007 CAA basketball preview
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by user J Cunningham
In my five years covering Old Dominion University athletics for The Mace & Crown and WODU Radio, I became intimately familiar with the Colonial Athletic Association, especially as far as college basketball is concerned. Now, with the calendar creeping ever closer to the opening tip of my favorite sport, the reporter in me can't help but wonder just what 2006-07 has in store for the CAA.
So, partly for my own kicks and partly to impart some wonderful CAA knowledge on ArmchairGM, I offer a not-quite-professional, semi-expert analysis of the season to come for one of last year's most surprising mid-major leagues.
Here's a quick recap of 2005-06:
Last season was a breakout year for the CAA, as four teams found themselves in postseason play. George Mason and conference tournament champion UNC Wilmington advanced to the NCAA tournament, while Hofstra and Old Dominion won NIT berths. The conference had two teams in the tournament for the first time in over 20 years, when Navy and Richmond were still in the CAA.
The story, of course, was George Mason. The Patriots' magical run to the Final Four--in which they upended the likes of North Carolina, Connecticut and Michigan State--validated the team's at-large bid, a bid hotly contested and criticized on Selection Sunday. Though George Mason fell to eventual national champion Florida, everyone can agree last season was a success for the Patriots.
UNC Wilmington, meanwhile, almost joined the fun, leading nationally-ranked George Washington by 18 late in the second half of their first-round NCAA tilt before losing to the Colonials in overtime.
Hofstra and ODU both had long runs in the NIT, and the only thing standing in the Pride's way of Madison Square Garden was their conference rival from Virginia. A bracket fluke forced the two teams to play in the quarterfinal round, with ODU winning 71-61. The Monarchs advanced to MSG to play Michigan in the NIT Final Four, but injuries to forward Arnaud Dahi and 2004-05 CAA Player of the Year Alex Loughton sent ODU back home.
All four teams finished the season with at least 20 wins, marking the first time in CAA history that has happened. No other Division I conference could make that claim last season--not the Pac-10, not the SEC, not the Big Ten, not the Big XII, not the Big East, and certainly not the almighty ACC.
Now, onto this season...
For the purpose of this blog, I'm going to list each team by the predicted finishing order revealed during CAA Media Day at the ESPNZone in Washington, D.C. Oct. 25. My predicted finishes will appear in bold after each team's capsule.
Hofstra: The Pride went 26-7 last season, which is part of why they're the preseason favorites this year. A larger part of that is coach Tom Pecora's returning backcourt, which features Loren Stokes (who recieved an unfortunate gift from Tony Skinn in the CAA semifinal last season), 2004 CAA Rookie of the Year Antoine Agudio and Carlos Rivera. That backcourt led the nation in scoring in 2005-06.
The only thing I see standing in the Pride's way this year is a questionable frontcourt. Pecora will have to do without his most reliable big man from a year ago, Auremas Kieza, and I've yet to see anyone with the potential to step up in the Lithuanian's absence.
Also, it's been shown that when a team shuts Stokes down, which a few in this conference can do, the rest of Hofstra's offense suffers. My Pick: 1st
George Mason: What more needs to be said about the first team in conference history to advance to the Final Four? Not even David Robinson's Navy teams can boast that. The Patriots did go 27-8 last year, and they do return forward Will Thomas--who led the conference in field goal percentage at 58.0%--and talented guard Folarin Campbell.
The problem is, they lose Skinn, Lamar Butler and Jai Lewis, the undisputed backbone of last year's squad. Coach Jim Larranaga does have a few talented youngsters at his disposal--most notably forward Sammy Hernandez--but I'm not sure they can withstand the rigors of a tough conference schedule just yet. My Pick: 3rd
Drexel: Bruiser Flint's Dragon squads are always in the thick of things in the CAA, and I don't expect this year to be any different. I'm a little surprised the coaches are picking Drexel to finish third, though; that's mighty lofty praise for a team that a year ago went 15-16. But with all the talent returning, I can certainly see the reasoning.
Dominick Mejia averaged over 15 points a game last year, and his shooting can put a game away in a heartbeat. If he could learn to play some defense, I'd call him a potential Player of the Year. Bashir Mason (4.3 apg, three-time All-Defensive Team selection) returns to run the offense and having Chaz Crawford clogging up the middle will be an asset.
Bruiser's teams are feisty, and this group has the potential to be a really good team. Problem is, so do a lot of other teams in this conference. My Pick: 5th
Old Dominion: The Monarchs went 28-10 last year and made it to the NIT Final Four, but with the loss of leading scorers Alex Loughton and Isaiah Hunter, coach Blaine Taylor's squad is being overlooked. Arnaud Dahi has fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, and Valdas Vasylius should provide a reliable frontcourt mate.
Drew Williamson and Brandon Johnson will again manage a talented backcourt (Williamson, a UNC recruit, went the entire 2005 CAA tournament without committing a single turnover), while Jonathan Adams should get better than his impressive freshman outing of a year ago. All indications show 7-foot-3 Sam Harris making drastic changes to his game, and if any of the freshmen can contribute--namely Marsharee Neely and Gerald Lee--this could be a dangerous team.
The CAA might breath a sigh of relief with the loss of Hunter and Loughton, but Taylor's a good enough recruiter they won't be missed for long. Don't be surprised to see the Monarchs in the thick of it come March. My Pick: 2nd
UNC Wilmington: The Seahawks won the conference tournament and tied for the regular-season title with George Mason, despite everyone picking them to finish mid-pack. While I would love to give UNCW the benefit of the doubt again this year, the loss of coach Brad Brownell and guard John Goldsberry might be too much to handle.
I'm unsure of new coach Benny Moss, and the offense rests squarely on the shoulders of T.J. Carter, a preseason All-CAA pick. I realize the Seahawks proved everyone wrong last year, but I really think this is the year UNCW finishes mid-pack. My Pick: 7th
Virginia Commonwealth: The Rams suffered a huge blow in the offseason when coach Jeff Capel III left to take the Oklahoma job. Fortunately, they gained one of Florida's assistants, Anthony Grant, to take his place. Grant, coming from the national champion Gators, will instill the same toughness and winning attitude Capel brought to VCU, and the Rams should be a factor, despite the loss of forward Nick George.
Jesse Pellot-Rosa and B.A. Walker will likely be the featured players in the Rams' offense, and hard-nosed defense is always the name of the game in Ram land.
The team does face a problem down-low, however. Since Troy Godwin left two seasons ago, VCU hasn't had a strong presence in the paint, and that trend will continue this season.
On a hot night, VCU can beat anyone. But when the shots aren't falling... My Pick: 4th
Towson: Gary Neal helped Pat Kennedy's Tigers surprise a lot of clubs last season, as the perrenial CAA bottom-feeders finished mid-pack. More importantly, they avoided the play-in round of the tournament for the first time since Towson joined the conference.
Neal returns, which will automatically make the Tigers competitive and dangerous. There's a reason this guy is a preseason First Team selection. One guy can't carry a basketball team, but he can go a long way in helping a struggling program get back on the right track. My Pick: 6th
Georgia State: The Panthers nearly knocked George Mason off in the quarterfinals of the CAA tournament last March, but that was about the only highlight for a program that struggled mightily in its inaugural season in the conference.
Expect those struggles to continue, as coach Michael Perry faces a conference where the good teams will stay good and many of the bad teams will get better. Add the fact his leading returning scorer, Justin Billingslea, only scored over seven a game last season, and the Panthers will probably spend its sophomore year in the CAA looking up at almost everyone else. My Pick: 11th
Northeastern: The Huskies made an impressive debut in the CAA last season, introducing the league to flashy point guard Jose Juan Barea and shot-blocking sensation Shawn James. The team's 19-11 record served notice to the conference, and the Huskies even managed to knock off then-defending CAA champion ODU in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.
But what a difference a year makes. This year, the Huskies will be without Barea (who graduated and has since signed with the Dallas Mavericks) as well as James (who transferred to Duquense). Oh, and coach Bob Everhart also went to Duquense.
Losing that much talent all at once would cripple almost any program, especially one still trying to establish itself in a new conference. My pick: 9th
James Madison: The past few years have been a struggle for the Dukes, and last season was no exception. In fact, James Madison went into February last season before picking up its first conference win.
Despite all that, the team should improve this year, if for no other reason than the returning talent. Sophomore Juwann James is a preseason Second Team selection, and look for long and lanky Kyle Swanston to make an impression on the court. His athleticism impressed me as a freshman, and his basketball skills should follow suit this year.
The Dukes are still a year or two away from contending for the CAA crown, but they will be a much better team this year. My Pick: 8th
William & Mary: It's just not a fun time to be a Tribe basketball fan, especially since Calvin Baker transferred to Virginia. Coach Tony Shaver does return forward Cory Cofield and guard Nathan Mann, but the Tribe are undersized and, against many teams, just not as athletic.
Also, it might not hurt to keep the star recruit past his freshman year. My Pick: 10th
Delaware: No team last season had a worse year in the CAA than Delaware. It was so bad, in fact, coach Dave Henderosn lost his job. Taking his place on the sidelines at the Bob Carpenter Center is Monte Ross, but Ross' job is immediately hampered by the loss of Harding Nana.
Nana was by far the Blue Hen's best player in 2005-06, and oftentimes he was the team's only legitimate scoring threat. Herb Courtney and Raphael Madera will try to pick up the slack this year, but it's obvious Delaware's in a rebuilding phase. And with so many better, more talented teams in the conference, I can't see the Blue Hens winning more than eight games this year.
A team that once succeeded in the America East, Delaware is having a tough time in the CAA, and I don't see that changing any time soon. My Pick: 12th
Once again, a quick rundown of my predicted conference standings:
1. Hofstra
2. Old Dominion
3. George Mason
4. Virginia Commonwealth
5. Drexel
6. Towson
7. UNC Wilmington
8. James Madison
9. Northeastern
10. William & Mary
11. Georgia State
12. Delaware
Based on the talent returning this year and how some of the incoming freshmen look, I'm tempted to say the conference has a legitimate chance to send two teams to the NCAA tournament again. If that were to happen, it would likely validate last year's postseason success to the national stage, though I already feel a Final Four run needs no validation.
Look for a tough, entertaining conference race, and despite my picks above, I can see any one of five teams winning the CAA.
Alright, enough talk...can we just play some hoops already?
It's possible the league as a whole could have a downyear, which would be a shame after last year. It's possible I'm overlooking UNCW, much like everyone overlooked them last year, but I think the inexplicable change at head coach will impact the team.
I agree ODU lost two important pieces in Loughton and Hunter, but having seen Dahi, Williamson and Vasylius, as well as the incoming freshmen and the seeming improvement of big Sam Harris, I think ODU could be the one everyone's overlooking.
Look forward to reading your MVC preview. It was a lot of fun watching them tear up the brackets with the CAA last year.