It's All About The Opportunity
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by user 68.192.85.15
Are you weary of drafting the closer for the Kansas City Royals? I mean, come on, they only win about 60 games, right? Last year they won 62 games. Being that they are so terrible, every game they do win is usually close enough to be a save opportunity for their closer. Problem last year was a combination of several horrible relievers trying to close out games, namely Ambiorix Burgos. Would you believe me if I told you that the Royals had 66 SO (save opportunities) to rank them 8th in the majors? They also led the majors in BLOWN SAVES with a whopping 31. Can Dotel save 40 this year? The answer is yes, if he's healthy. The Royals don't have to win 100 games like the Yankees to give the same amount of opportunities. The Yankees offense is so good that they win many games by more than the 3 runs needed for a save opportunity.
Let's take a look at last year's statistics on Save Opportunities and Blown Saves.
Oakland led the majors with 74 SO. Let's view the top 10:
2. San Diego - 71 3. Boston - 69 4. Florida - 68 5. Milwaukee - 67 6. Atlanta - 67 7. Seattle - 67 8. KC - 66 9. Texas - 65 10. Philadelphia - 64
7 of the top 10 blew between 20 and 23 games last year. That seems to be pretty normal. However, three teams who were in the top 10 in SO, were the top 3 on blown saves. The Marlins, Braves, and Royals blew a league leading 27, 29, and 31 games respectively. The Florida recently added Jorge Julio, Atlanta added Wickman, Gonzalez and Soriano and KC brought in Dotel in an effort to prevent a repeat of last year's late inning woes.
In comparing Oakland to Minnesota you will find something very interesting. Oakland led the league with 74 SO. Minnesota was better than only Cleveland and the Cubs, with only 50 SO. That is 24 fewer opportunities than Oakland had. Despite have the 3rd least amount of SO, the Twins led the majors with an 80% conversion rate. Joe Nathan nailed down 36 saves in only 50 team opportunities. Huston Street nailed down 37 saves in 74 team opportunities.
The set-up men play a large role in getting the closer to SO. Many saves are technically blown in the 7th and 8th innings when middle relievers give up the tying runs. What does this have to do with our closers? Well, if they don't have a SO in the 9th inning and they did have the SO after 6, it was the bullpen before them that blew their opportunity.
The following teams had between 45- 60 SO, placing them in the bottom third of the league: Colorado, NYM, St. Louis, Baltimore, Washington, Arizona, TB, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the Cubs. ' Only the Mets and Twins saved over 70% of the SO, at 74% and 80% respectively. Billy Wagner and Joe Nathan, thanks to their setup men giving them the chance, saved 35-40 games last year. The Twins only blew 10 games last year and the Mets only blew 15.
Fuentes, Isringhausen, Ray, Cordero, Dempster, Wickman, and Julio/Valverde saved between 24 and 33 games. That is just about ordinary from a fantasy standpoint. Solid, but nothing to write home about.
Let's compare these numbers with those closers whose teams were in the top 10 in SO. All of them had 65 - 74 SO.
Gordon and Papelbon saved 34 and 35 yet missed a good month of the season at the end. Fairly, we can give them both 40 had they been healthy. Otsuka had 32 with Texas and Cordero had close to 10 before losing his job. That is about 40 right there. Street had 37 Justin D chipped inwith 9. San Diego, who led the majors in whip and era, and had the second most SO, gave Hoffman 46, 2nd most in the majors. Putz saved 36 but didn't even close all year. He would have had closer to Hoffman's amount had he pitched in that role all year. Turnbow and Cordero combined for 40+ with the Brewers last year. Borowski on Florida finished with 36 saves as well.
Teams in the bottom third of the league in SO, averaged about 29-30 saves last year. Teams in the top third averaged closer to 40. That is a 10 save differential.
So the teams with the most SO, are the teams who usually have closers who get the most saves. Unless you bow 31 like the Royals did.
Remember, its not how many games the team wins, it how many opportunities a team generates. While it can't be predicted on a year to year basis, you can note teh setup men on each team and predict from there.
Don't just look to the surface and assume that a team who doesn't win often, doesn't create many Save Opportunities. Conversely, don't assume that a team that wins 96 or 97 games (Mets and Twins) will generate massive amounts of SO for their closers. Because last year the Mets and Twins were 22nd and 28th in the majors in SO, while the Royals were 8th, while only winnings 62 games.
