In depth analystical preview: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) @ New England Patriots (12-0)
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by NFL-MLBGuru
A team playing for a historical perfect season, and another team playing for revenge. This Week 14 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots should be quite a good one, and has the potential to turn out ugly for both sides. Here's a sneak preview into the on-field battles.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE vs. STEELERS DEFENSE
This is the closest offense-to-defense matchup the Patriots have faced this season. The Pats, who have been slowing down in the last two weeks, face the best defense in the NFL (the Steel Curtain is allowing only 230.8 yards per game, 154.0 passing and 76.8 rushing). The Patriots own the NFL's top offense (425.3 yards per game, 304.0 yards passing), but they have been slowing down in the last two weeks. In the first ten games of the season, New England averaged 41.1 points per game, 3.8 touchdowns passes per game, and 438.7 yards per game. In the last two games, they are only averaging 29 points per game, 1.5 touchdown passes per game, and 358.5 yards per game. Tom Brady has been human, Randy Moss has been almost nonexistent, and the pass protection has diminished. Not a good thing for New England. Pittsburgh has a very good pass rush attack led by defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Harrison. Coach Mike Tomlin also likes to send his cornerbacks in frequently, to force quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. Brady excels when throwing quickly, but against the Steelers it may be different, because their coverage scheme is elite. Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, Bryan McFadden, Allen Rossum, Anthony Smith and Troy Polamalu are all big parts of the reason why Pittsburgh has the number one pass defense in football. Brady may find himself constantly looking for Wes Welker, Ben Watson and Kyle Brady for 5-7 yard gains if tackles Matt Light and Nick Kaczur can't keep Brady's butt off the turf. Bill Belichick understands this, and this is the game plan I expect him to use.
We will look at Pittsburgh's offense in detail in the next section, but I'll glaze the surface of it here. Pittsburgh loves to run the football. They thrive off attacking the heart of defenses with speedy Pro Bowler Willie Parker. They win football games by grinding it out, eating up clock time, and wearing down defenses by constantly injected them with a heavy prescription of Parkeroseritis. Bill Belichick needs to counter this in some way, especially after seeing his aging defense melt down against Philadelphia and Baltimore. Belichick will use a new defense in this game... his offense. His defense will be his offense. Bill will put a premium on pass protection, because he will be having Tom Brady air it out quite a bit. Brady will look to Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Jabar Gaffney deep downfield frequently in this game for big chunks of yardage early in the game. The philosophy is that if New England jumps to an early two touchdown lead, then Pittsburgh will be forced to throw the football. Brady will go for lots of touchdowns in the first half, to force the game into the hands of Ben Roethlisberger instead of Willie Parker. If the Patriots can get to a big early lead and take the ball out of Parker's hands, they have a good shot at winning the football game. Expect to see a lot of passes and barely any Laurence Maroney in the early stages of this game. Whether this game plan will succeed really rests on the shoulders of the o-line and fullback Heath Evans. The Steelers' secondary cannot match up to Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson and Gaffney all at the same time, so I have no doubt that at least some of the receivers will get open. But the pass protection needs to be good for Brady to get the ball to them. Matt Light will have to quit sleeping, Kaczur will need to contain Smith, and Evans will have to intercept any corners coming in on a blitz. Another name to mention here is Polamalu's. Sometimes the Steelers use him like the Colts use Bob Sanders, creeping up into the box and blitzing. Maroney and Evans will need to flatten him before he flattens Brady. If that happens, then the Pats should have success throwing the ball.
STEELERS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
The story with the Patriots' defense is similar to that of their offense. They have slipped dramatically against two reserve quarterbacks (A.J. Feeley and Kyle Boller) by allowing 26.0 points per game and 383.5 yards per game. All areas of their defense has been slowing, from run-stopping (Richard Seymour is getting swallowed by tackles) and pass defense (Asante Samuel is the only one playing pass defense nowadays). If the Pats get carved up like they did against Feeley and Boller, what can Pro Bowler Ben Roethlisberger do to them? No, he's not a Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, or Drew Brees, but he's a very decent quarterback who knows how to win (his career winning percentage is second only to Tom Brady). Even more concerning than that is the threat of Willie Parker. Willis McGahee completely ran over the Pats this past week, slashing through for 138 yards on 30 carries (4.6 yards per carry). Parker can do even worse. Parker is second in the NFL is rushing yards (1093 yards) and is the heart and soul of the Steeler offense. If the defense can silence the Patriots' fireworks for a little while, then Parker will get the ball consistently. If he does, it spells death for New England. Richard Seymour, recently activated off the PUP list (physically unable to perform list), has been getting swallowed by tackles and has not been helping the run game at all. Even Jarvis Green was doing better. Junior Seau's gas tank is starting to get low, Tedy Bruschi is no longer the Tedy of Old (a.k.a. he's slow and decrepit), and Rosevelt Colvin is on the IR. Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel can't do it all on their own. Vrabel is a couple years past 30... he'll start wearing soon as well. Rodney Harrison is still playing strong, and James Sanders is improving, but if the front 7 of Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Thomas, Vrabel, Seau and Bruschi can't tighten up, then Parker will run wild. If so, that will open up the passing game for Big Ben and his receiving corps of Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes, Cedrick Wilson, and Nate Washington. If the Parker plan is working, then Roethlisberger won't throw more than 25 times. But he'll complete 70% of his passes and gain significant yardage on each. They will be the third down completions that ultimately sticks the knife in the defenses' spine. I would love to tell you that the Pats have the edge here, but I don't think it will get any better with this defense facing Parker. Steelers have the edge against the Pats' defense.
PRESSURE POINTS
This is just as huge of an aspect to the game as the offenses and defenses. This is where most people think the Patriots will lose the game. They will come into this game with the burden of maintaining a perfect season on their shoulders. Pittsburgh will come into this game with a chance to get revenge and be the spoilers. The Pats have beaten the Steelers 5 out of their last 6 meetings, including 2 AFC Championship games. Pittsburgh is hungry for revenge, and with the Pats' looking almost subpar in their last two games, the Steelers are smelling blood in the water. They are feasting on the aroma of blood so much that it compelled Anthony Smith to guarantee a win on Sunday. Of course, Smith is an idiot, guaranteeing a win against one of the best teams of all time in their home stadium. But it reflects the level of confidence that the Steelers have right now. This game will be a fight to the nail, but it is the Patriots who will have to overcome the burden of pressure... not the 9-3 Steelers.
KEYS TO VICTORY
PATRIOT's 5 KEYS:
1. Score quickly. Let Brady loose, have Moss and Stallworth run deep, get quick passing touchdowns early in the game to make Roethlisberger throw.
2. Pass protection. The o-line needs to protect Brady with a reckless passion if they want to win this game.
3. Be physical. The defense cannot be old grandmas today. Pittsburgh is a smashmouth team... we can play that game, too. When you have a good shot on Parker, hit him into the next decade. The pass rushers need to bowl into Big Ben like freight trains. Rodney Harrison needs to teach some receivers and tight ends painful lessons downfield. Make them pay dearly for every millimeter they gain to wear them down before they wear you down.
4. Special teams play. If Ellis Hobbs can crack a couple long runs, it will be a priceless boost to the offense and they'll run with it. Welker needs to give them some short fields when he returns punts. If they do this, the Pats will score two more times than they otherwise would have.
5. Don't divert from your game plan. Ignore the stupid "running up the score" garbage. Throw the ball downfield, even if your' ahead by 21 in the third quarter. Don't let those Steelers hang around... because when you're not looking, they'll come right back and bite you in the butt.
STEELERS' 5 KEYS:
1. Free Willie. Give the Patriots' old defense a heavy dose of Parkeroseritis. Have Willie Parker running free, and then complement that by using Ward and Miller for big first downs.
2. Time of possesion. The Pats' offense is the most explosive in the history of football. At any given time, Brady and company can ignite and score 28 points in 5 minutes. Make sure you keep the ball out of their hands as much as possible.
3. Pressure Brady. Hit him. hit Him hard. Make him always think about the pass rush. If you can do that, then he won't be able to launch up cheeseballs to Moss and Stallworth.
4. Shut down Moss. Regardless of what you do with Stallworth, make sure Moss doesn't do to you as he did to the Bills. Once you let Moss free, you're dead.
5. Special teams. Rossum needs to return some big kicks for long yardage. Give Ben and Willie short fields. If you can do that, it equals about two more scores than you would otherwise have.
Final statement: Considering all the data that has been presented, it is extremely hard to make a prediction. But the Patriots are under a lot of pressure, aging, and have not played well over the last two weeks. The Steelers are young, coming off a solid spanking of their rival Bengals, and bloodthirsty. As much as it pains me, the result is inevitable. PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 31, New England 24
