Icemanvt's 2006 ACC Predictions
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by user Icemanvt
Yes, I already know that there is an ACC preview out there already, but what kind of college football fan would I be if I didn't put my proverbial money where my proverbial mouth is? A smart one. But even so, I'm going to go ahead and put my predictions out where everyone can laugh at them come December. Remember, it's not a lie if you believe it.
Regular Season
Methodology
To determine this year's ACC champions, I went by the source that 98% of most prognosticators use: their gut and their biases. Of course, it helps to actually know who each team is playing each year. For that, I found this nifty excel spreadsheet that someone turned into an ACC calendar, showing each week's opponent in convenient helmet form. Which works, since we're talking about that paragon of educated man, the college football fan.
Once I got the helmet schedule, I used the scientific method of putting a W for each game a team would win and an L for each loss. Like I said, very scientific. And since it was in pen, I had to be right, otherwise things would get messy. So without further ado, your 2006 predicted ACC standings.
Atlantic Division
1. Clemson
Record:11-1 (8-1)
Predicted Wins:All of them except...
Predicted Losses:at Virginia Tech
Key Game:9/9 at Boston College
Commentary:This is the year that it's all supposed to come together. They have a veteran offensive line, a stud DE in Gaines Adams, and arguably the best tailback in the ACC in James Davis. Will Proctor is a question mark at quarterback, but he's a veteran of the practice squad and in theory, practice makes perfect. In theory. And that's what Tommy Bowden is hoping for this year. After all the Charlie Whitehurst hype-machine didn't turn out to be all that it cracked up to be.
The key to a great season for Clemson is to not get off to one of Tommy Bowden's patented starts. And he holds the patent because nobody in their right mind would want to claim to get off to the lackluster starts that Clemson gets off to. Unfortunately the schedule bears it out. They get their requisite puffball game in Florida Atlantic, and then immediately gets into the meat of their ACC schedule by playing at Boston College and then in Tallahassee. Get through those two games and they are sitting pretty until the Thursday night game in Blacksburg. This schedule is a three game ACC schedule, and if they go 2-1 in those games, they'll be in Jacksonville in December.
2. Florida State
Record:10-2 (8-1)
Predicted Wins:Everything except...
Predicted Losses:Clemson, Florida
Key Game:9/4 at Miami
Commentary:As
usual, Free Shoes Florida State University comes back from another year reloaded with expectations of another BCS game dancing in their head. They've lost some talent, but Drew Weatherford is more experienced with a year under his belt. If they can get past the usual battle with Miami, then that should get them started for the rest of the year. If Miami saddles them with a loss, then it'll be a hard road to climb. Not that they haven't done it before, but it makes things just a bit harder.
3. Boston College
Record:8-4 (4-4)
Predicted Wins: at Central Michigan, BYU, Maine, Virginia Tech, Buffalo, at Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland
Predicted Losses: Clemson, at NC State, at Florida State, at Miami
Key Game:10/12 Virginia Tech
Commentary:The Eagles/Golden Eagles/whatever they're called have been a pretty decent football team over the past few years. Nowhere near the talent needed to get into the BCS picture, but always hanging around the top 25.
This year will be no different, with some good talent returning, but losing their stud DE Mathias Kiwanuka will hurt somewhat. But they'll have enough returning talent to take care of the games they should take care of, but not enough talent to create some upsets. Well, except for Virginia Tech. Yes, it's a Thursday night game, but Boston College has enough experience with Beamerball that they can pull the upset (call this the Pittsburgh corollary). Their non-conference schedule is pretty much a cakewalk, but they have to pay the price by making two trips to Florida and hosting Clemson in the second game of the season. Something tells me that Clemson's going to want to make up for last year's loss at home by returning the favor.
4. NC State
Record:6-6 (4-4)
Predicted Wins:Appalachian State, Akron, Wake Forest, at Maryland, at Virginia, at North Carolina
Predicted Losses:at Southern Mississippi, Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Clemson, East Carolina
Key Game:10/5 Florida State
Commentary: Neck and neck in the race to get fired first with Larry Coker, Chuck Amato has been riding Philip Rivers coattails for the past two seasons. He supposedly has all this talent coming up the pipelines, but has been a .500 team the past two seasons (see Groh, Al for another example). As a result, the Wolfpack fanbase has been getting the itchy trigger finger to find someone who can, let's say, win in the new ACC.
This year is going to be even more of a problem Mr. Amato since he's lost more talent and doesn't look to have the replacements in place. Even so, NC State's got a pretty easy schedule, although they miss the guaranteed win against Duke. But they also miss Miami and Virginia Tech in the Coastal as well, which is good for them.
It'll be interesting to see whether Chuck puckers up tighter than a snare drum with his head on the chopping block or if he'll be able to buckle down to save his job. One thing to look at is whether he improves the number of penalties the Wolfpack make this year. Last year, it seemed that every NC State game was marred by false start and offsides penalties. If he can get those simple mistakes taken care of, it'll be a sign that he's tightened ship in Raleigh.
5. Maryland
Record:5-7 (2-6)
Predicted Wins:William and Mary, Middle Tennessee State, Florida International, at Virginia, Wake Forest
Predicted Losses:at West Virginia, at Georgia Tech, NC State, Florida State, at Clemson, Miami, at Boston College
Key Game:10/7 at Georgia Tech
Commentary:Maryland has gone through a rough couple years where the momentum they started building at the beginning of the 21 century has been wasted. The addition of the three newcomers to the ACC hasn't help, but neither as Ralph Friedgen insistence that the talent they have is good enough to win, especially at QB. As a result, Maryland played inconsistant and this year is going to be no different if they cannot find a solid starter under center. This has to be the year that Sam Hollenbach steps it up or it is going to be a long season in College Park.
The schedule is going to be deceptive to people who don't pay attention to anything other than the wins and losses. The first five weeks consist of three pansies at home and a trip to the Morgantown for the Battle of the Burning Furniture. And a bye week. Of course, they're going to suffer for this by the football gods by having a stretch following the bye week in which it will not be impossible for the Terps to lose 5 or 6 straight. That just may burn up any good will that Ralph has in College Park.
6. Wake Forest
Record:5-7 (2-6)
Predicted Wins:Syracuse, Duke, at Mississippi, Liberty, at North Carolina
Predicted Losses:at UConn, Clemson, at NC State, Boston College, at Florida State, Virginia Tech, at Maryland
Key Game:9/23 at Ole Miss
Commentary:Poor Deamon Deacons. They're just not good enough to get over that hump and get to a bowl game. They came within a win last year of making the bowl for the first time in three years and that's with ACC Player of the Year Chris Barclay. Now, he's gone, and while they have a pretty good rusher in Micah Andrews, they're still a notch below in talent level at the other positions. Unfortunately, they're in the opposite conference as Duke, so they're going to be near the bottom of the Atlantic.
Even so, Wake Forest is competitive each year under Jim Grobe. In fact, Jim Grobe is the anti-Chuck Amato. He gets more out of his talent despite the disadvantages of coaching at a private engineering that cares more about basketball than football. In fact, Jim Grobe is probably all that separates Wake Forest from Duke. And nobody wants to be Duke in football, even if it would get them a pity vote in the preseason coaches poll. In any case, look for Wake to do it's thing of knocking off a superior opponent at least once this season. I wouldn't be surprised with a win at Ole Miss to round out a 4-1 start before the reality of the ACC season sets in. They have a shot to be a surprise bowl team this year, with all the other mid-level ACC teams having down years as well.
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech
Record:11-1 (7-1)
Predicted Wins:Everyone except...
Predicted Losses:at Boston College
Key Game:10/26 vs. Clemson
Commentary:It's safe now, citizens of Virginia, you can now bring out your 16 year old girls. Marcus Vick is now doing his thing in Miami, where he will be able to blend in much more smoothly with the rest of the South Florida citizenry. Now most people are looking at this prediction and thinking that I'm being a homer. And they're somewhat right. But follow my line of logic here: between Marcus' departure and Jimmy Williams' drafting in the second round (which I could completely see coming), the Hokies have lost two of their bigger head cases. The Hokies, unless you have a all-world talent like Mike Vick, have always been much better as a more cohesive unit. 2004 is the prime example of this, where they had a leader in Bryan Randall, who didn't have the talent of Marcus Vick, but had the leadership skills and was able to keep his head screwed on straight, something that kept the Hokies from the promised land of the BCS last year.
The second items that screams huge year to me is the schedule. The schedule will be huge deal in determine how well a team does. Unless nobody can throw or run the ball, Virginia Tech should be 5-0 going into Chestnut Hill. They'll have a week to prepare for that game and should be ready to go. However, BC has always been a pain the the Hokies side and this year could be no different. If they get through that game, all that separates the Hokies from the BCS is Miami and the ACC championship game. This schedule is just that easy, and if the leadership comes through, it could be a very surprising ride to the top for the Hokies.
2. Georgia Tech
Record:8-4 (6-2)
Predicted Wins:Samford, Troy, Virginia, Maryland, Miami, at NC State, at North Carolina, Duke
Predicted Losses:Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson, at Georgia
Key Game:10/21 at Clemson
Commentary:Reggie Ball has been around forever, and even so, eligiblity has to run out some time, so unless he gets one of those Paternity waivers, the Reggie Ball era is going to come to an end this season.
Of course, he'll still have all-everything wide receiver Calvin Johnson to throw to, so that's not bad. And the defense will be studly. And he should have a good o-line to work with. But there's just that little voice that says in the back of my head that they're going to have another game against a Maryland that's going to be ugly and that they should've won. It could very well be the Duke game, where everyone will be focused on the showdown in Athens the following week, while Duke is playing for pride. I could see 5-3 Duke victory happening. But for the most part, Georgia Tech will win most of the games they should win and lose most of the games they should lose. Perhaps they'll be rewarded for having an out-of-conference schedule with a pulse.
3. Miami
Record:8-4 (5-3)
Predicted Wins:Florida A&M, Houston, North Carolina, Florida International, at Duke, at Maryland, at Virginia, Boston College
Predicted Losses:Florida State, at Louisville, at Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Key Game:9/16 at Louisville
Commentary:Larry Coker is on the Budwiser Hurricane Hot Seat. It's never good when the final game in a pretty dissapointing season is a 40-3 smackdown against LSU. Miami is supposed to be competitive against the elite teams. Sure 9-3 isn't bad, but they also barely squeaked by Clemson. Florida State is better and they have to deal with the Big East Juggernaut that is Louisville in the third game of the season.
It's conventional wisdom that if you're a national title contender, you want to get your losses out of the way early in the season. But then again, ask Tennessee or Oklahoma what happens when your national title bandwagon loses a wheel in the first few weeks. It can go down hill pretty quickly from there. So what happens if Miami goes into their bye week with a 1-2 record, possibly unranked, and facing a dangerously offensive Houston team? Will Coker manage to survive?
Or will Miami play the rest of the season with a chip on it's shoulder. If they get some swagger, then all bets are off. But something tells me that the Larry Coker Hurricanes lost that swagger on the Sun Devils Stadium in January of 2004. Put them down for another decent season, which is not going to get it down at Miami. Not by a long shot.
4. Virginia
Record:5-7 (2-6)
Predicted Wins:Wyoming, Western Michigan, at Duke, East Carolina, North Carolina
Predicted Losses:at Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, at Florida State, Miami, at Virginia Tech
Key Game:9/2 at Pittsburgh
Commentary:You gotta be wondering what they're thinking in Charlottesville. They've had a bunch of heralded recruiting classes and precisely squat to show for it. And then to top off an off-season where they lose a bunch of starters from a 7-5 team, the team has a bunch of incoming recruits declared academically ineligble and the coach expected it to happen. Not a good sign for the future.
And if you think the future is now, then Hoos fans have another thing coming. The offense has no one coming back and the linebackers have alot of talent gone from last season as well. So that means that Al is going to have to pull alot of coaching talent out of his posterior for them to go bowling this year. More likely, they're going to have to explain this away as a "rebuilding" year and play the kids.
5. North Carolina
Record:3-9 (1-7)
Predicted Wins:Rutgers, Furman, at Duke
Predicted Losses:Virginia Tech, at Clemson, at Miami, South Florida, at Virginia, Wake Forest, at Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, NC State Key Game:10/19 at Virginia
Commentary:The Tar Heels do have former Cornhusker Joe Dailey coming on to be QB. They also happen to be in the same division at Duke. Thus, they aren't going to be a last-place team. That's good. Unfortunately, that's not going to help them get any closer to a bowl game because the rest of their schedule is tough. Didn't they get the memo going around the ACC to fill up on creampuffs. Unless Maryland never forwarded it. Which is a shame, because they could be a more even team and just not improve because of their out-of-conference. A bit of a problem.
Otherwise, expect more of the same out of the Tarheels. Enough action to get you moderately interested, but not good enough to make any real noise in the ACC. And besides, if Spurrier is able to send a little love to his former school, you'd think that Mack Brown would do the same? Naw, I didn't think so either.
6. Duke
Record:0-12
Predicted Wins:The fact that they took the field
Predicted Losses:The actual games they play
Key Game:9/2 vs. Richmond
Commentary:When your biggest news during the summer is the announcement that your starting QB is being suspended for the year because of plagarism, your program is in trouble. The fact that your QB's name is Asack is just high comedy. Thus, the battle for the starting QB spot is between a wide receiver and a ham sandwich. It wouldn't make a difference in the end as either will be eaten alive every game. Of course, you'd have to use up a new scholarship each time the ham sandwich is eaten, but perhaps the NCAA can make an exception for that.
The only hope for Blue Devil fans is to catch a team napping. I mean literally falling asleep on the field. I'm pretty sure that's how they beat Clemson in 2004. Otherwise, their only realistic hope is to beat 1-AA Richmond. And I wouldn't be surprised if they lost that game too. Otherwise, they're toast.
Bowl Season
ACC Championship Game
Predicted match up: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
If things go down, the hype machine will be in full effect for this game. The rematch between two teams, likely for the BCS championship game, where one team ruined the other's possibly undefeated season.
If this is the match up, Clemson comes out ahead on the neutral field. Even though Virginia Tech has played in Jacksonville enough times that Frank Beamer has a second house down there (not really), this team isn't experienced enough to get it done this year. Clemson already has a senior leader in Gaines Adams, Virginia Tech need to find one before a game like this.
Though it would be interesting to see who would fudge the game up the most, Beamer or Bowden. I still say... Clemson will be your ACC Champions
Bowl Qualifiers
- Clemson
- Virginia Tech
- Florida State
- Georgia Tech
- Miami
- Boston College
- NC State
Three teams with 10 wins and one or two losses would be great for the ACC. Their non-conference schedule would make it possible along with the dreck at the bottom of the league. The ACC isn't the strongest top to bottom conference in the country, that would be the SEC. But voters don't care about strength of schedule. They're going to see 12-1, 11-2, 11-1, which will give the conference enough credibility to put two teams in the BCS easily. If the ACC champion comes out of conference with one loss, then I'm pretty sure that they will be on the very, very short list to Tempe this year.
But that leads the question... what about three BCS qualifiers? It's possible, but I doubt that would be the case. The three teams in question would probably be all in the top 15 and may even the top ten. Would that be enough, or would the cry of the distressed non-bowl qualifiers be enough to limit things to two schools per conference at most. Anyway, here are the bowls and where each school would be slotted:
National Championship Game: Clemson
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech
Peach Bowl: Florida State
Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech
Champs Sports Bowl: Miami
Music City Bowl: Boston College
Meineke Car Care Bowl:NC State
Date
Tue 08/08/06, 2:19 pm EST
Tech has one of the top 5 receiving corps in the country. Regardless of who they lose on defense, that side of the ball is always strong (Jimmy Williams, while a headcase, was still a much better player and less of a whacko than DeAngelo Hall) so it doesn't matter much who comes and goes. The real key is having a QB that doesn't think with his ass. Unfortunately, we have no idea if that's true or not because we have no idea which of the gentlemen yet to start a game for the Hokies is going to be under center. All the HS talent in the country can't be rolled into one experienced QB to open the season. Miami probably still beats Tech because Tech seems to have a psychological barrier to beating them. And because it's the Hokies, they're likely to blow some nonsense game in the middle of the season and end up in the Strange's Florist/Jim Chung's Chinese Takeout and Coin Laundy Bowl, while we lament the season that could be. Maybe they should just snap the ball to our receives on variou flag-football style end arounds, triple reverses, shuffle passes, and Music City Miracles.
Maryland is lucky they play such a cupcake schedule or they could easily climb into the ESPN Bottom 10 and go winless. They would have company in another ACC team. Too bad Coach K can't coach more sports.
Dan