How would it look if Dale Jr. had those 100 points back?
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by Kendroberts
With 3 races left, here are how the odds of making the Chase would look if Dale Jr. had never lost 100 points for the illegal rear wing mounting at Darlington:
So Dale Jr.'s current odds are 8.9% with 3 races left, but with the 100 extra points they would be 40.3%
I wrote a computer program that randomly generates results for each remaining race before the Chase. Then it tallies each driver's position and repeats, millions of times. When the simulation "runs" a race it gives each of the top 43 drivers an equal chance of finishing in any of the 43 spots, like picking numbers from a hat.
Here is an update with 2 races left.
Also, whether or not Junior left DEI this season or not, his focus has not been on racing, especially SINCE announcing that he's leaving DEI for Hendrick. Before he just had to deal with the fights with Teresa; now he's fielding comments about Kyle Busch's comments about being "pushed out" of Hendrick, how he's dealing with being essentially left out of his father's company, the recent battle for his number (which he's lost), and now he's actually DEFENDING Teresa in the papers, telling people to quit writing such unsavory things about her. If Junior really had his head 100% in the game, maybe his outcomes would be a little different. Not that I blame him for being distracted, lord knows I would be.
I just don't think that it's fair to completely blame outside stimuli on a problem that has internal roots as well.