How tonights NFL game effects your teams odds of making the playoffs

by Kendroberts

Ah football. A new start. 32 teams, each with a 37.5% change of making the playoffs.

Effect of first game: Colts vs Saints 8:30 PM Thursday: The biggest effect is on the 2 teams playing, win 45%, lose 30%. Then teams in the Colts or Saints division, division mate loses 38.7%, wins 36.3% Then everyone else, conference mate loses 37.9%, wins 37.1% These numbers come from a Monte Carlo simulation at Sports Club Stats where each opponent has a equal change of winning future games.

DNLLegend

846 days ago

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I wanted to run something like this, where instead of a Monte Carlo sim, you actually run out a each possible iteration of the season. Assuming no ties, though, the # of possible results is enormous.

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KendrobertsPee Wee

846 days ago

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yea, 256 games in the regular season, 2 posibilities for each games, so 2^256 = 1.1579208923731619542357098500869e+77. If you account for ties it's 3^256 = 1.3900845237714473276493978678966e+122. If you account for points scored and allowed its ... :)

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