How hard will Yanks chase Santana?
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by Audino237
I know not many people have been thinking about it lately, but a big decision looms. It's not who will manage the Yankees in 2008 and beyond. It's not how much money to offer Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. Nope, it's not exercising the option on Bobby Abreu or who will be the new bench, pitching, and 3rd base coaches. It's not even how much money the Yankees will pay Alex Rodriguez, if they even have to. The decision is this: The Minnesota Twins have decided that they will shop ace John Santana during the offseason. The 28-year old lefthander has a career 93-44 career record (it'd be much better if he had a better team surrounding him, obviously). He has been in the league for 8 years, but the 93 wins are more impressive considering he has just finished only his 6th year as a starter. He has averaged just over 15 wins a season as a starter. Despite his alarmingly fast-rising home run allowed totals, he is still a Cy Young candidate year in, year out. I think that his subpar season (subpar= 15-13, 219 IP, 235 K/52 BB, 1.07 WHIP) can be partly attributed top his growing frustration with the franchise. He would be sure to have many suitors. Here are a few:
-New York Yankees
-New York Mets
-Los Angeles Dodgers
-Philadelphia Phillies
-Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
-Boston Red Sox
-Seattle Mariners
-St. Louis Cardinals
-Maybe the Twins will pony up? Nah.
That may seem to be a list of the richest teams; and it is. But the teams also have to be aggressive shoppers and have prospects to spare.
Obviously, how hard the Yankees inquire about Santana depends on who is "really" calling the shots. Anyone who follows baseball in the least knows that George Steinbrenner promised Brian Cashman control of the team and scouting in an effort to keep him on-board when his contract expired. However, at times it seemed like he was not in control. Cashman has accomplished alot though in the last 2 years, as his main focus has been staying away from big-money, big-name free agents and trade targets. Instead, he wants to build the farm system from the ground up, just like the glory days of the mid- and late-90s. During any other time in Steinbrenner's run, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Chien-Mien Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, Josa Tabata, Dellin Betances, Robinson Cano and Alan Horne would be playing for different organizations, and guys like Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield, Eric Gagne would be wearing pinstripes and be added to the growing list of creaky old men with burdensome contracts. It can be argued that the mixture of seasoned veterans and excitable young kids energized the Yanks in their mid-season comeback to playoff status.
If Hank and Hal Steinbrenner order that they want quick fixes and big names for this year and the opening of the new Stadium in 2009, Cashman will either resign (unlikely) or give in, but won't be as reckless with throwing prospects away. Here is where Santana comes in.
Santana is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of next year, and would be the most sought after free agent pitcher in recent history, if not ever. My guess is that he would command a free agent deal (assuming the market stays the same, it may go up or down) worth about $21 million annually for 7-8 years. There are only a handful of teams that would be able to pay that kind of money, and any team willing to give up the prospect package that the Twins are looking for would be sure to only trade for him if they could hammer out an extension beforehand. This won't be a Carlos Beltran rental situation.
What would the Yanks offer?
If Cashman retains complete control, they would still likely make an offer, but it would be a lowball one that would insult the Twins. So, obviously, there are 2 sides to this. They either go after him or they don't.
I have read that the Twins would ask for a top pitching prospect, a very good position player, and a 2nd level prospect. They have 3 excellent prospects that are close to untouchable (Kennedy, Hughes, Joba). The Twins would surely insist on one of them, and the Yankees would have to gamble on which one to deal.
The Twins also have another high-caliber free agent. With no outfield prospects in the near future (Tabata is long range), the Yankees would have to sign a centerfielder if they were to trade Melky Cabrera. Everyone knows the outstanding options on the market, and that list probably starts with Torii Hunter. What if Melky were included in the deal and the Yankees signed Hunter as his replacement? Intriguing.
I would HATE if the Yankees traded one of the big 3 (not likely to trade Chamberlain after Joba-mania though, I see Kennedy as the most likely to go), and Melky, but I think most fans would forget quickly if Johan Santana was winning 20 games a year and pitching games in the new Stadium.
