How are the Diamondbacks in First Place?

by Sportprojections

The Arizona Diamondbacks are having one of the most bizarre yet successful seasons in baseball history. Going into the games of Aug 25th, the D’backs are two games ahead of the Padres to lead the NL West Division. Looking at their stats, though, you would never believe it.

• The D’backs are ranked 6th out of 16 teams in pitching in the National League. This isn’t necessarily bad. The Cubs lead the Central and are 3rd in the NL, and the Mets lead the East ranked 5th.
• However, the D’backs are 15th out of 16 teams in runs scored this season. The Washington Nationals are the only team behind them. The D’backs are 16th out of 16 in hits and 15th out of 16 in batting average.

How could they possibly be in first place? Especially considering my favorite stats:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have scored 548 runs. The San Francisco Giants have scored 557 runs.
• The Diamondbacks have allowed 583 runs. The Giants have allowed 567 runs.
• The Diamondbacks record is 72 - 57 while the Giants are 57 - 72. The D’backs have a 15 game lead over the Giants.

The easy answer to this freakish occurrence is the Diamondbacks’ pitching. They have a great pitching staff at the beginning of the rotation but lack strong pitching in the fourth and fifth spot. They are 28-16 in one-run games, and they also start at least three rookies a game which at times leads to mistakes and big losses. The team has many close wins and several big losses. The D’backs closer has the most saves in baseball. If they can get a lead late, they’re likely to hold onto it. If they get behind early, it’s probably going to get ugly.

Are the Diamondbacks a team of destiny or just the luckiest team in baseball history?

Chris Fry
sportprojections@gmail.com
Message me anytime on aol, msn, yahoo, or gmail at sportprojections

RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 3

We've talked about this, but why don't we talk about it again since it's closer to the end of the season? The Diamondbacks are STILL in first place? As far as the Diamondbacks being the luckiest team in baseball history, I have to disagree. For the "runs scored/allowed" situation that they currently have, it's because most of the games they lose are "blowouts", and they win all of the close games.

The management there is pretty darn good. Jose Valverde has done pretty well. Even though he's blown 6 saves, he was pretty consistent in the middle of the season, which is why the DBAX still have the lead; he has an ERA of 2.75. They took Edgar Gonzalez out of the rotation, a pitcher that was really having trouble, and surrendering a lot of homers, and now they have Brandon Webb, who is probably the main reason why they've kept the lead with all of those scoreless innings, Livan Hernandez, Micah Owings, Yusmeiro Petit, and Doug Davis. The main reason they've kept the lead is because of the bullpen, not one pitcher in there has an ERA over 3.00.

There is a lot of YOUNG talent on the team too. The only regular starter above the age of 30 is Eric Brynes (who is 31).

Everything is working for them as well. No injuries, and it seems like they have just enough offense, defense, and pitching to win games. Look at the other teams. The Giants don't have that much pitching or offence, the Dodgers have had offensive problems, and so do the Padres. The Rockies have pitching problems. The Diamondbacks seem to have everything they need, and they're doing a good job.

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NejoshiDiv-I Stud

834 days ago

Score 5

Their record in one run games is stellar, they have great young pitching with Brandon Webb, and they have a host of great youngsters (Chris Young, Justin Upton). We are only beginning to see the rise of the Diamondbacks. They are gonna be at the top of the NL West standings for awhile.

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RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 1

28-16 in one run games (best in the MLB), and yes, like I said, youngsters are really doing well for the team.

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Falcon02520Legend

834 days ago

Score 2

Kinda like the Nationals a few years ago.

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RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 1

Here is another interesting fact: They're only 24-23 against the Pads, Dodgers, SF, and Colorado combined. It's surprising because with the lead they have and the numbers they put up, you'd expect them to do really good against the West, but that isn't necessarily the case. They're doing extremely well against the East; 24-9. They're the only team to not have 10 losses against them; the next team after them with the least amount of losses is the Colorado, but they're 12-11 against them. ARI is doing really well against them...

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Silencer76AAA-er

834 days ago

Score 3

The problem with the Diamondbacks that will start to slow them down is that pitching, however. Look at the rotation outside of Webb.

Livan Hernandez 9-8, 4.96 ERA, 27 HR allowed, 65 BB, 73 K, 1.567 WHIP, 191 hits in 163.3 innings. He has given up the second most homers in the NL, the 7th most walks, and the 4th most hits. Hernandez averages about 6.1 innings an outing.

Doug Davis is 10-11, ERA of 4.22, 18 HR allowed, 81 BB, 107 K, 1.601 WHIP, 165 hits allowed in 153.2 innings. Davis does not even average six innings per start. He has walked the second most guys in the NL and his K:BB ratio is about 1.32:1.

Micah Owings can hit, but he is a rookie. He is 6-7 with an ERA of 4.69, allowing 129 hits in 124.2 innings, walking 45 and K'ing 87. He also has beaned 11 guys, which leads the NL, and has a WHIP of 1.399. He also averages between 5 and 6 innings a start.

Petit is too raw for me to look too deeply at, 2-4, 5.14 ERA, WHIP of 1.381, but he has given up 10 homers in just 42 innings of work.

Those kinds of numbers spell trouble, because they do catch up, and eventually will tax that brilliant bullpen.

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RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 1

Take a look at their bullpen. If the offense can produce 5-6 runs, they should definitely be good to go for every game. No one in the DBAX's bullpen has an ERA of over 3.00. Valverde hasn't been that great in August since he's blown about 3-4 games this month, but he still throws heat, and he still leads the MAJORS in saves. And he's blown 6 saves, sure, but Fran Cordero and K-Rod have blown 6 too, Borowski has blown 5, along with Bobby Jenks, Trevor Hoffman, and Todd Jones. Out of the top 10 pitchers in save opportunities, he is better than everyone except Putz, Hoffman, and Saito.

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RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 1

You're right about the starters, Silencer, but if the offense keeps it close, Owings and Webb will get a lot of wins, along with some of the pitchers in the bullpen. A lot of W/L decisions come from the bullpen in ARI, because the games are usually very close. So far, the bullpen, altogether is 20-11, which says something: that the bullpen is key to many of Arizona's victories.

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Silencer76AAA-er

834 days ago

Score 1

I watched Owings last night Romie, since the Cubs are playing them, and I tell you, he doesn't impress me all that much. He doesn't rev up the gun much past 90, and his breaking stuff was flat. He was fortunate that the game was only 3-1 when he left, it easily could have been much worse. As for the pen, they put a LOT of runners on last night. The first six reached in the ninth against Nippert, which put the game out of reach, but all in all Chicago reached Juan Cruz and Nippert for 7 hits and a pair of walks in 3 innings. Their offense can keep them in games, but it also can hurt them, as it did last night. Sean Marshall had an easy night, throwing just 72 pitches in six innings and giving up a run on 2 hits. They are aggressive hitters and swing early in the count, and like to fan. (Chris Young 99 K, Byrnes 82, S. Drew 80, Hudson 74, Snyder 50 in 251 AB, Quentin 49 in 216 AB, Tracy 43 in 226 AB.) The pitching will wear down, especially as the season winds down.

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Silencer76AAA-er

834 days ago

Score 1

Just a couple things about the DBacks pen, their August splits:

Pena 0-0, 8.68 ERA, 11 hits, 7 BB, 6 K, 9 ER in 9.1 innings Valverde 1-1, 3.18 ERA, 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 BB, 16 K, 7 of 9 in save opps Cruz 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 8 hits, 4 runs, 3 ER, 5 BB, 11 K in 9 innings Lyon 0-0, 3.86 ERA, 7 hits, 5 runs, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K in 7 innings

Nippert 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 9 hits, 8 runs, 3 BB, 5 K in 5.1 innings

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

832 days ago

Score 0

What you fail to mention is that Arizona is 7-1 in Doug Davis' last 8 starts.

"Are the Diamondbacks a team of destiny or just the luckiest team in baseball history?"

As to that comment -- the Dbacks are the ballsiest team in ML history. You have to blow them out to win.

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Falcon02520Legend

834 days ago

Score 2

Good teams find ways to win. I'm not saying this is a really good team, but they are showing that they could be.

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RomiezzoLegend

834 days ago

Score 0

Well put...and the thing is that's very simple too.

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Anonymous Fanatic #2

834 days ago

Score 1

No, lucky-ass teams whose records exceed their runs scored/allowed differentials by this much crash back to earth sooner or later.

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Silencer76AAA-er

833 days ago

Score 1

The team is playing over the numbers, and badly. The expected win loss record for ARI based on numbers is 61-68. The Padres are only 2 back, and have 7 more games with ARI, a four game set at Petco starting Monday, then a 3 game set at Chase Field the following week. They have lost four of five, and have a critical 9 game homestand starting 8/31 with three against SD, 3 with COL, and 3 with STL.

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SashaDiv-I Stud

834 days ago

Score 0

Even if the D-Backs rotation does falter a bit who is going to catch them? The Padres probable just lost Chris Young for the season and if they do catch the Snakes then the Phillies will still have catch them in the wild card and the Phillies have never had pitching.

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Silencer76AAA-er

833 days ago

Score 0

Not sure where you are seeing that Young is out for the year. Everything I read has him missing one start at the moment and avoided the disabled list.

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Manny StilesMajor Leaguer

834 days ago

Score 1

Smoking mirrors.

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Kdark11Varsity

833 days ago

Score 0

The Diamond backs have played pretty well all season and they have won the close games. They dominated the NL East so far this year. On top of all this, winning is contagious. San Diego and LA were not able to pull away early in the season and now they are paying the price.

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Yakob878MVP

833 days ago

Score -1

mlb suprise team like the tigers last year

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